鮑威爾領銜美聯儲主席選拔“真人秀”

Donald Trump is preparing an announcement on the next Federal Reserve chair this week with governor Jay Powell said by administration officials to be the leading candidate in what remains an unpredictable process.

唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)準備在本周就下一任美聯儲(Federal Reserve)主席人選作出宣布，政府官員們稱，在這一難以預料的甄選過程中，美聯儲理事杰伊•鮑威爾(Jay Powell)是領先人選。

The US president teased the decision on Instagram on Friday, claiming that Americans were “anxiously” awaiting his announcement and that everybody would be “very impressed” with the nominee. “It will be a person who hopefully will do a fantastic job,” he said, speaking directly into the camera from the White House.

美國總統(tǒng)上周五在Instagram上拿這項決定開玩笑，稱美國民眾正“焦急地”等待他的宣布，而且人人都會對這位被提名者“印象深刻”。“這將是個有希望干一番大事的人，”特朗普在白宮直接對攝像機說。

Mr Trump has been deliberating between Mr Powell, the continuity candidate for the job alongside current chair Janet Yellen, and John Taylor, a Stanford economist who could radically shake up monetary policy. Mr Powell, who has served at the central bank since 2012, is a centrist who has strongly supported Ms Yellen’s cautious approach to interest rate rises as well as the gradual reduction of its $4.5tn asset holdings which began this month.

特朗普一直在鮑威爾、美聯儲現任主席珍妮特•耶倫(Janet Yellen，她與鮑威爾同屬沿襲現有路線的人選)、以及可能從根本上改變貨幣政策的斯坦福大學(Stanford)經濟學家約翰•泰勒(John Taylor)中考慮下任美聯儲主席的人選。自2012年以來任職于美國央行的鮑威爾屬于中間派，他一直大力支持耶倫對于加息及從本月開始逐步削減美聯儲持有的4.5萬億美元資產的謹慎態(tài)度。

If he wins the job, which is subject to Senate confirmation, Mr Powell is likely to be welcomed by financial markets which have soared in the easy-money environment fostered by the Fed since the crisis.

如果鮑威爾獲得任命(需參議院確認)，可能會受到金融市場的歡迎。金融危機以來，在美聯儲培育的銀根放松的環(huán)境下，金融市場一路飆升。

On the other hand, Mr Taylor, a prominent US economist who authored a key policy rule for setting rates, has been consistently hawkish on monetary policy and critical of the Fed’s stimulus programmes, which would make investors more wary.

另一方面，泰勒是一位杰出的美國經濟學家，曾寫下設定利率的一個關鍵政策規(guī)則，他一直在貨幣政策上持鷹派觀點并批評美聯儲的刺激方案，這種態(tài)度會引起投資者更大的戒備心。

As with the decisions over the composition of his cabinet and the Supreme Court, Mr Trump has drawn on his reality-television roots as he turns the race to be Fed chair into a public spectacle. The lead-up to the decision on the Fed’s leadership has been like no other, as different candidates’ prospects have waxed and waned in media predictions and administration insiders have stoked up speculation.

與其有關內閣和最高法院組成的決定一樣，特朗普利用他真人秀的根基，將美聯儲主席的選拔變成了一場公開表演。美聯儲主席任命的前奏很是與眾不同，不同候選人的前景在媒體的預測中起起伏伏，政府內部人士也大加炒作。

The president has appeared to relish the drama: this month he stunned some lawmakers by reportedly taking a straw poll in a meeting with Republican senators, presenting a choice between Mr Powell and Mr Taylor.

特朗普似乎很享受這種戲劇場面：據說本月他在會見一些共和黨參議員時做了次民意測驗，讓他們在鮑威爾和泰勒之間作出選擇，這讓議員們大吃一驚。

Declining to give Ms Yellen a second term would be a break from established presidential practice in recent decades. Yet while Mr Trump appears to see benefits in reappointing Ms Yellen, given the economy’s strong performance and the record-high levels of the stock market, he has also expressed a desire to make his own personal mark on the institution.

如果拒絕讓耶倫連任，將打破近幾十年來的既定總統(tǒng)慣例。然而，特朗普雖然看到了再次任命耶倫的種種好處，比如經濟的強勁表現和股市創(chuàng)下的歷史新高，他還是表示出希望在美聯儲留下自己的印記。

Mr Trump has interviewed Messrs Taylor and Powell, and Ms Yellen for the job. Also under consideration has been Kevin Warsh, a Stanford academic who like Mr Taylor would represent a sharp break from the current regime. Gary Cohn, the director of the president’s National Economic Council, saw his prospects for the job diminish after he criticised Mr Trump’s response to the Charlottesville protests.

特朗普已就美聯儲主席一職的任命與泰勒、鮑威爾和耶倫面談。斯坦福學者凱文•沃什(Kevin Warsh)也在考慮之中，沃什和泰勒相似，將代表著與當前體制的分道揚鑣。在沃什批評特朗普對夏洛茨威爾(Charlottesville)游行事件做出的反應后，白宮國家經濟委員會(National Economic Council)主席加里•科恩(Gary Cohn)認為沃什出任美聯儲主席的前景堪憂。

Choosing a continuity candidate like Mr Powell would be in keeping with the Trump administration’s unexpectedly delicate handling of the Fed since the president’s inauguration.

選擇像鮑威爾這樣沿襲現有路線的候選人，將符合特朗普政府自總統(tǒng)就職以來出人意料地小心處理美聯儲事務的做法。

While Mr Trump regularly lambasted Ms Yellen during the election campaign, he has subsequently spurned any criticism of her or her institution, saying he really likes the chair. This reflects an awareness of the market sensitivity of any remarks associated with the world’s most powerful central bank. Mr Trump and his lieutenants have closely associated themselves with the soaring value of the stock market since he took over the White House.

盡管特朗普在競選期間常炮轟耶倫，但之后他拒絕對耶倫或美聯儲做出任何批評，稱他真的喜歡耶倫。這反映出，特朗普意識到市場對與世界最強大央行有關的任何評論都很敏感。特朗普和他的助手們自特朗普執(zhí)掌白宮以來一直表示支持股市市值不斷飆升。

Mr Powell is a well-known figure among bankers and investors, having worked as a partner at Carlyle Group from 1997 to 2005 following a stint at the US Treasury under George H.W. Bush. He is not an economist, in a break from several decades of precedent at the Fed. Both Ms Yellen and her predecessor Ben Bernanke had high-profile careers in academic economics.

鮑威爾在銀行家和投資者中是一位知名人物，他曾在老布什(George H.W. Bush)當政期間供職于美國財政部，之后于1997年到2005年在凱雷(Carlyle)任合伙人。鮑威爾并非經濟學家，若他獲任，這將打破美聯儲前幾十年的傳統(tǒng)。耶倫及其前任本•伯南克(Ben Bernanke)在經濟學學術領域都曾有杰出的職業(yè)生涯。

Mr Powell has been supportive of Ms Yellen’s arguments that the Fed is unlikely to be in a position to lift rates very far given slower potential growth and low inflation. Recently he has steeped himself in markets plumbing at the Fed, including examinations of liquidity shortages in treasuries trading.

鮑威爾支持耶倫關于美聯儲加息的主張。耶倫認為，因為潛在增長放緩和低通脹，美聯儲不太適合大幅抬高利率。最近鮑威爾在美聯儲潛心做市場研究，包括考察美國國債交易中的流動性短缺問題。

The administration would be counting on him to be more willing to ease regulatory burdens on the financial sector than Ms Yellen, who was closely allied with regulatory hardliner and former governor Daniel Tarullo. Nevertheless, some Republican lawmakers have been critical of Mr Powell for not doing more to curb regulation as a Fed governor.

特朗普政府將會期望鮑威爾比耶倫更愿意減輕金融業(yè)的監(jiān)管負擔。耶倫與監(jiān)管強硬派、前美聯儲理事丹尼爾•塔魯洛(Daniel Tarullo)是親密盟友。然而，一些共和黨議員一直批評，身為美聯儲理事的鮑威爾沒有為減少監(jiān)管做出更多努力。

Mr Powell’s candidacy has been strongly backed by Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin, whereas many conservative lawmakers on Capitol Hill have been backing Mr Taylor.

鮑威爾的候選資格得到了美國財長史蒂文•姆努欽(Steven Mnuchin)的強烈支持，而國會山的很多保守派議員則支持泰勒。

The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

白宮沒有立即回應置評請求。

Additional reporting by Demetri Sevastopulo 迪米(Demetri Sevastopulo)補充報道