中國(guó)需求將亞洲液化天然氣價(jià)格推至3年高點(diǎn)

Chinese demand pushed Asian liquefied natural gas prices to a three-year high, as the country’s importers scramble for supplies in the face of Beijing’s move to reduce urban air pollution.

面對(duì)中國(guó)政府減少城市空氣污染的舉措，中國(guó)天然氣進(jìn)口商爭(zhēng)相購(gòu)入天然氣供應(yīng)，這一需求將亞洲的液化天然氣的價(jià)格推高至3年來(lái)的高點(diǎn)。

This year’s rally in spot prices of the super-cooled fuel has surprised market executives and analysts, who had long been expecting a subdued market due to extra supplies of LNG from new projects. However, delays in production and China’s “2+26” pro-gas policy, aimed at controlling pollution in Beijing, Tianjin and 26 other cities, has propelled demand.

今年，這種超低溫燃料現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格的上漲令市場(chǎng)高管和分析師感到驚訝。長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)他們一直預(yù)期，由于新的天然氣項(xiàng)目將提供額外的液化天然氣供應(yīng)，市場(chǎng)反應(yīng)將是疲軟的。然而，天然氣出產(chǎn)延遲及今年中國(guó)在“2+26”城市推行的親天然氣政策拉動(dòng)了需求。這一政策的目的是控制北京、天津和其他26個(gè)城市的污染。

The Asian spot LNG index Japan-Korea Marker from S&P Global Platts rose to $10.04 per million British thermal units on Thursday, the highest level since December 2014, and a fifth higher since the same time last year.

標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾全球普氏(S&P Global Platts)的亞洲現(xiàn)貨液化天然氣指數(shù)日韓標(biāo)桿(JKM)，周四升至每百萬(wàn)英熱單位10.04美元，這是2014年12月以來(lái)的最高水平，比去年同期高五分之一。

“The unexpected winner of [China’s] environmental crackdown has been the huge increase in demand for natural gas,” said Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at ANZ.

“(中國(guó))環(huán)保舉措的意外贏家，是對(duì)天然氣需求的大幅上升，”澳新銀行(ANZ)高級(jí)大宗商品策略師丹尼爾•海因斯(Daniel Hynes)說(shuō)。

Chinese imports of LNG have been strong over the past 18 months, stepping up further in the second half of the year, which pushed Asian prices higher. In the first nine months of the year, import volumes rose 30 per cent, while winter demand was up about 40 per cent, according to energy consultants Wood Mackenzie.

過(guò)去18個(gè)月來(lái)，中國(guó)對(duì)天然氣的進(jìn)口一直很強(qiáng)勁，今年下半年勢(shì)頭更強(qiáng)，將亞洲的天然氣價(jià)格推高。根據(jù)能源咨詢公司伍德麥肯茲(Wood Mackenzie)的數(shù)據(jù)，今年頭9個(gè)月，中國(guó)的天然氣進(jìn)口量增加了30%，冬季的天然氣需求上升了約40%。

Due to the high demand, Chinese companies bought forward imports of contracted amounts of LNG and had to turn to the spot market, pushing up prices, said analysts.

分析師表示，由于需求旺盛，中國(guó)企業(yè)提前采購(gòu)了天然氣合同中約定的進(jìn)口量，不得不轉(zhuǎn)向現(xiàn)貨市場(chǎng)，從而推高了天然氣的價(jià)格。

PetroChina, for example, had bought around 70 per cent of its annual contract quantity by September, compared with 50 per cent last year, said Wood Mackenzie. “This means lower contracted offtake is left for the winter, and higher demand for spot,” said Wen Wang, China gas and LNG senior consultant.

比如，據(jù)伍德麥肯茲的數(shù)據(jù)，中石油(PetroChina)今年9月就采購(gòu)了年度天然氣合同中約定數(shù)量的約70%，而去年同一時(shí)間只采購(gòu)了50%。伍德麥肯茲中國(guó)天然氣和液化天然氣高級(jí)咨詢師Wen Wang說(shuō)：“這意味著給冬天留下的合同剩余量更少，對(duì)現(xiàn)貨的需求更高。”

The rise in Asian LNG prices comes as gas prices in Europe also increase in anticipation of higher demand in the face of colder weather. In the UK, “pipeline inflows into the country are reportedly stable, but prices are now subject to real and anticipated demand spikes as temperatures hit lower levels,” according to JBC Energy, a Vienna-based consultancy. Spanish prices were also firmer, it added.

亞洲液化天然氣價(jià)格上升適逢歐洲的天然氣價(jià)格也出現(xiàn)上升，原因是更寒冷的天氣導(dǎo)致市場(chǎng)預(yù)期對(duì)天然氣的需求即將升高。維也納咨詢公司JBC Energy表示，在英國(guó)，“據(jù)報(bào)經(jīng)由輸氣管道進(jìn)入該國(guó)的天然氣數(shù)量保持穩(wěn)定，但隨著溫度降至更低，價(jià)格現(xiàn)在受實(shí)際需求和預(yù)期需求升高的影響”。該公司補(bǔ)充稱，西班牙的天然氣價(jià)格也更加堅(jiān)挺。

Although the spot LNG market could remain tight in the near future, “there are enough downside risks to suggest prices are vulnerable to some weakness over the coming months”, said Mr Hynes.

盡管現(xiàn)貨天然氣市場(chǎng)可能在近期保持緊張，海因斯表示：“有足夠多的下行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)表明，價(jià)格容易受到未來(lái)數(shù)月的一些疲弱因素的影響。”

While Chinese LNG demand is expected to remain strong, steady shipments from delayed projects are expected to come to the market next year. Supplies from a ramp up of Chevron’s Wheatstone and Gorgon projects in Western Australia and exports from several projects in the US are also likely to mean that the LNG glut that has been anticipated will materialise in 2018.

盡管中國(guó)對(duì)液化天然氣的需求預(yù)計(jì)將保持強(qiáng)勁，一些推遲的天然氣項(xiàng)目提供的穩(wěn)定天然氣供應(yīng)要到明年才能上市。雪佛龍(Chevron)在澳大利亞西部的Wheatstone和Gorgon天然氣項(xiàng)目產(chǎn)量加大，這些項(xiàng)目帶來(lái)的天然氣供應(yīng)，以及美國(guó)的幾個(gè)天然氣項(xiàng)目的出口，很可能意味著關(guān)于液化天然氣將供過(guò)于求的預(yù)測(cè)，可能會(huì)在2018年變?yōu)楝F(xiàn)實(shí)。