2018年新興市場(chǎng)面臨嚴(yán)峻考驗(yàn)

Emerging markets this year have been driven by the winds of a co-ordinated recovery in economic growth, with trade growing strongly, corporate earnings robust and interest rates still low on average across the EM universe.

新興市場(chǎng)今年受到經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)同步復(fù)蘇的推動(dòng)，貿(mào)易增長(zhǎng)強(qiáng)勁，企業(yè)盈利穩(wěn)健，整個(gè)新興市場(chǎng)平均利率水平維持在低位。

But whether that environment will propel another year of strong gains for EM assets is another question. The big risks include the potential for a stronger US dollar and a China economic slowdown that could hit global demand for resources, several analysts say.

但是，這樣的環(huán)境能否推動(dòng)新興市場(chǎng)資產(chǎn)實(shí)現(xiàn)又一年強(qiáng)勁盈利則是另一個(gè)問(wèn)題。一些分析師表示，主要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)有美元可能走強(qiáng)以及中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)可能放緩，后者將打擊全球資源需求。

“The year 2018 may well be the toughest test yet for EM assets since the 2013 taper tantrum,” says David Hauner, head of economics for eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa at the Bank of America Merrill Lynch in London.

美銀美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)駐倫敦的東歐、中東和非洲經(jīng)濟(jì)主管戴維•豪納(David Hauner)表示：“對(duì)于新興市場(chǎng)資產(chǎn)而言，2018年很可能是自2013年‘縮減恐慌’(taper tantrum)以來(lái)最嚴(yán)峻的考驗(yàn)。”

“The clear and present danger is the combination of US monetary tightening and fiscal stimulus, which could conspire to push US nominal and real yields higher,” Mr Hauner adds.

豪納說(shuō)：“目前一個(gè)明顯的危險(xiǎn)是美國(guó)貨幣緊縮政策和財(cái)政刺激措施的結(jié)合，它們可能會(huì)一起推高美國(guó)國(guó)債的名義和實(shí)際收益率。”

During the 2013 taper tantrum, EM assets were clobbered by a surge in US Treasury bond yields brought about by the Federal Reserve signalling a desire to reduce the amount of money being pumped into the financial system.

2013年縮減恐慌時(shí)期，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Fed)表示想要減少對(duì)金融體系注入的資金量，導(dǎo)致美國(guó)國(guó)債收益率上漲，令新興市場(chǎng)資產(chǎn)遭到打擊。

The concern now, according to Mr Hauner and other analysts, is that the proposed US tax reforms — if adopted — could trigger a resurgence in corporate capital flooding back to the America, thereby driving up the value of the US dollar. When the dollar appreciates against EM currencies, funds tend to flow out of EM assets and gravitate towards their dollar-denominated counterparts.

豪納和其他分析師認(rèn)為，現(xiàn)在人們擔(dān)心的是，美國(guó)的稅改計(jì)劃——如果被采納的話——可能會(huì)引發(fā)企業(yè)資本大量回流到美國(guó)，從而抬高美元的價(jià)值。當(dāng)美元對(duì)新興市場(chǎng)貨幣升值時(shí)，資金往往會(huì)從新興市場(chǎng)資產(chǎn)中流出，流向以美元標(biāo)價(jià)的資產(chǎn)。

However, opinion is divided on how the proposed US tax reform may play out. Arvind Rajan, head of global and macro at PGIM Fixed Income, a fund with $695bn in assets under management, says he does not expect the reforms to prompt a drastic change in US monetary policy as the Fed’s preferred price gauge remains well below 2 per cent.

然而，關(guān)于美國(guó)計(jì)劃中的稅改會(huì)產(chǎn)生什么影響產(chǎn)生了意見(jiàn)分歧。管理資產(chǎn)達(dá)6950億美元的基金PGIM Fixed Income的全球和宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)主管阿爾溫德•拉詹(Arvind Rajan)表示，他預(yù)計(jì)稅改不會(huì)造成美國(guó)貨幣政策出現(xiàn)大幅變化，因?yàn)槊缆?lián)儲(chǔ)關(guān)注的通脹率保持在遠(yuǎn)低于2%的水平。

“The passage of the tax bill would marginally increase the number of hikes that we should expect but I don’t expect the Fed to strike out in an entirely different direction,” he says.

他說(shuō)：“稅收法案的通過(guò)會(huì)略微增加加息次數(shù)，這我們應(yīng)該預(yù)見(jiàn)到，但我不認(rèn)為美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)會(huì)朝著完全不同的方向行動(dòng)。”

The other main cloud hanging over the generally encouraging outlook for EMs is China’s incipient economic slowdown. Consensus Economics, a private group that polls economists projections, forecasts China’s GDP growth next year to moderate to 6.4 per cent, down from the official 6.9 per cent posted in the second quarter of this year.

籠罩在新興市場(chǎng)總體樂(lè)觀前景上方的另一團(tuán)烏云是中國(guó)漸漸出現(xiàn)的經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩。據(jù)調(diào)查經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)測(cè)的私人機(jī)構(gòu)“共識(shí)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)公司”(Consensus Economics)預(yù)計(jì)，明年中國(guó)的國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)增長(zhǎng)將放緩到6.4%，低于今年第二季度公布的6.9%的官方數(shù)字。

“Growth momentum [in China] has started to ease since the third quarter and we believe the slowdown is likely to be a sustained trend in 2018,” says Shen Jianguang, chief economist at Mizuho Securities in Asia. “This is mainly the result of policy tightening, including financial deleveraging, anti-pollution controls and new curbs on the overheated housing market.’’

瑞穗證券(Mizuho Securities)亞洲首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家沈建光表示：“(中國(guó))增長(zhǎng)勢(shì)頭自第三季度開(kāi)始減緩，我們認(rèn)為放緩趨勢(shì)在2018年可能會(huì)延續(xù)。這主要是政策緊縮的結(jié)果，包括金融去杠桿、治理污染相關(guān)控制以及對(duì)過(guò)熱的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的新限制。”

China’s slowdown is likely to be expressed mainly in a cooling of its real estate market, with October numbers already showing a significant ebbing of growth momentum in property investment, new home starts and sales. Nevertheless, consumer spending is likely to remain strong next year as incomes continue to rise strongly and the willingness to consume among the younger generation stays buoyant.

中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩的主要表現(xiàn)可能是房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的降溫，10月份的數(shù)據(jù)已經(jīng)顯示房地產(chǎn)投資、新房開(kāi)工和銷售的增長(zhǎng)勢(shì)頭出現(xiàn)顯著放緩。不過(guò)，明年消費(fèi)者支出可能保持強(qiáng)勁，因?yàn)槭杖朐鲩L(zhǎng)依然強(qiáng)勁，而且年輕一代的消費(fèi)意愿仍然旺盛。

So if both of the big risks for EMs — the Fed and a Chinese slowdown — remain contained, investors may feel liberated enough to concentrate on other more positive narratives, say analysts.

因此，分析師表示，如果新興市場(chǎng)面臨的這兩大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)——美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)和中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩——繼續(xù)受到抑制，投資者可能會(huì)感到足夠的自由度去專注于其他更積極的觀點(diǎn)。

“Basically, market turbulence in the first half of the year should be seen as a buying opportunity for emerging markets,” Mr Hauner says.

豪納說(shuō)：“基本上，今年上半年的市場(chǎng)動(dòng)蕩應(yīng)該被視作新興市場(chǎng)的一個(gè)買入機(jī)會(huì)。”

Chief among these during 2017 has been a strong corporate earnings picture. Earnings per share growth of the companies included in the MSCI EM index — the leading benchmark for EMs equities — are on course to rise 22.4 per cent this year, according to BofA figures, with some countries such as South Korea, Turkey and Mexico showing a strong outperformance with 53.3 per cent, 40.5 per cent and 26.1 per cent, respectively.

2017年最突出的現(xiàn)象就是企業(yè)盈利的強(qiáng)勁表現(xiàn)。據(jù)美國(guó)銀行(Bank of America)數(shù)據(jù)，新興市場(chǎng)股票的主要基準(zhǔn)MSCI新興市場(chǎng)指數(shù)(MSCI emerging markets index)所涵蓋企業(yè)的每股收益增長(zhǎng)率今年將達(dá)到22.4%，韓國(guó)、土耳其和墨西哥等部分國(guó)家的表現(xiàn)則更加優(yōu)秀，將分別達(dá)到53.3%、40.5%和26.1%。

BofA is predicting EPS growth to moderate to 12.7 per cent next year, still a robust performance in spite of the obvious slowdown from this year. India, South Africa, China, Indonesia and Chile are among the predicted outperformers next year, the investment bank says. In terms of industry sector, earnings are expected to be strongest in consumer discretionary, healthcare and information technology.

美國(guó)銀行預(yù)測(cè)明年每股收益增長(zhǎng)率將放緩至12.7%，盡管與今年相比明顯放緩，但表現(xiàn)依然強(qiáng)勁。這家投資銀行表示，預(yù)計(jì)印度、南非、中國(guó)、印度尼西亞和智利明年會(huì)有出眾表現(xiàn)。就行業(yè)而言，預(yù)計(jì)盈利最強(qiáng)勁的將是非必需消費(fèi)品、醫(yī)療及信息科技領(lǐng)域。

[email protected] 譯者/何黎