不要夸大普京的能量

Ronald Reagan once joked that he had signed a bill to outlaw Russia. “The bombing begins in five minutes,” he said. Because the Soviet Union posed a mortal threat, his joke was in poor taste. Today’s Russia is a minnow by comparison. It offers no ideological challenge to democracy — and its economy is smaller than Italy’s. Yet liberal America has worked itself up into a moral panic. If it were not for Vladimir Putin, we are asked to believe, western democracy would be in reasonable shape. Without Russia, there would be no Donald Trump.

羅納德•里根(Ronald Reagan)曾經(jīng)開玩笑說，他簽署了一項從法律上禁止俄羅斯存在的法案。“轟炸將在5分鐘后開始，”他稱。由于當時的蘇聯(lián)構(gòu)成致命威脅，這個玩笑缺乏品味。相比之下，如今的俄羅斯就像一條小魚。它在意識形態(tài)上不再對民主政體構(gòu)成挑戰(zhàn)，而其經(jīng)濟規(guī)模甚至小于意大利。然而美國的自由派陣營神經(jīng)兮兮地陷入了一場道德恐慌。我們被要求相信，要不是弗拉基米爾•普京(Vladimir Putin)在搗亂，西方民主如今將處于不錯的狀態(tài)。沒有俄羅斯，就不會有唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)。

At best, such claims are an exaggeration. At worst, they are a red herring. The latest to join the fray is Joe Biden, the former vice-president. As a potential White House candidate, Mr Biden is a good barometer of Democratic thinking. In a co-authored article for Foreign Affairs, Mr Biden calls for the creation of a 9/11-style commission “to examine Russia’s assault on American democracy”. The body would identify tools to fight the Russian menace. “Americans need a thorough, detailed inquest into how Russia’s strike on their democratic institutions was carried out and how another one might be prevented,” he writes.

往最好的方向說，這些說法是夸大其詞。說得難聽些，它們是在轉(zhuǎn)移人們的視線。最近一個發(fā)表這類言論的是美國前副總統(tǒng)喬•拜登(Joe Biden)。作為潛在的白宮候選人，拜登很好地展現(xiàn)了民主黨思路。拜登在與他人為《外交》(Foreign Affairs)季刊合寫的文章中，呼吁成立一個與9/11調(diào)查委員會類似的委員會，“來審視俄羅斯對美國民主政體的攻擊”。該機構(gòu)將識別抗擊俄羅斯威脅的工具。他寫道，“美國人需要進行深入細致的調(diào)查，了解俄羅斯是如何對美國民主制度發(fā)動攻擊的，以及如何防止另一場攻擊。”

In sum, Mr Biden is calling for a new Cold War. But his reasons had little to do with foreign policy. The aim is to explain how Hillary Clinton could have lost to Mr Trump. Since the US electorate could not possibly have wanted him, it follows that the election was hijacked. The same kinds of argument are being made in the UK. Our minds were manipulated. Brexit was tipped by Russia, argue some Remainers. “Today, the Russian government is brazenly assaulting the foundations of western democracy around the world,” Mr Biden concludes.

總之，拜登呼吁發(fā)動新冷戰(zhàn)。但是他的理由與外交政策沒什么關(guān)系。他的目的是解釋希拉里•克林頓(Hillary Clinton)怎么會輸給了特朗普。由于美國選民不可能想讓特朗普當總統(tǒng)，順理成章的結(jié)論是選舉被操縱了。英國也有人提出了類似的論點。我們的思想被操縱了。一些留歐派認為，英國退歐的公投結(jié)果受到了俄羅斯煽動的決定性影響。拜登的結(jié)論是，“如今，俄羅斯政府正在悍然攻擊西方世界民主制度的根基。”

There are three problems with this line. The first is that it absolves Democrats of their own mistakes. Mr Putin did indeed throw all the bots and trolls he could muster against Mrs Clinton’s campaign. Moscow also helped hack and leak the email accounts of key figures in Mrs Clinton’s orbit. But to conclude that Russia threw the election is a stretch.

這個立場有三個問題。第一個問題是為民主黨人自己犯下的錯誤開脫。普京的確動用了他能夠召集的所有機器人軟件和噴子來阻撓希拉里的競選之路。莫斯科方面也幫助攻擊了希拉里圈子內(nèi)關(guān)鍵人物的電子郵件賬戶，并泄露了相關(guān)信息。但是由此斷定俄羅斯左右了大選就有些牽強了。

There are any number of reasons Mr Trump scraped the 77,000 margin in the three key Midwestern states that clinched him the electoral college. Jill Stein, the Green party candidate, was one of them. She received more votes in Wisconsin and Michigan than Mr Trump’s winning tally. Mrs Clinton’s refusal to campaign in Wisconsin was another. The former FBI director James Comey’s last-minute bombshell about reopening the investigation into Mrs Clinton’s emails was a third. And so on. None of these explain why Mr Trump’s support came within distance of victory in the first place.

特朗普在中西部三個關(guān)鍵州贏得7.7萬張的票數(shù)優(yōu)勢(這為他敲定了選舉人團)，原因有很多。綠黨候選人吉爾•斯坦(Jill Stein)是其中之一。她在威斯康星州和密歇根州獲得的票數(shù)高于特朗普的獲勝票數(shù)。希拉里拒絕到威斯康星州展開競選是另一個原因。聯(lián)邦調(diào)查局(FBI)前局長詹姆斯•科米(James Comey)在最后時刻重啟對希拉里郵件調(diào)查的突發(fā)事件，是第三條原因。諸如此類。這些原因中沒有一條能解釋為何特朗普的人氣本來就很高，使他有望勝出。

Mr Putin is an opportunist who wishes to tarnish the west. But America was already doing that by itself. He was only throwing paraffin on to the fire. The market for fake news predated Mr Putin. As the UK’s Sun newspaper would say: it was the west wot lost it. The second is that it looks nakedly partisan. Last year, Democrats accused the FBI of being a damaged outfit. Today they hold the agency up as the epitome of public virtue. In 2012, Democrats attacked Mitt Romney, the Republican nominee, for saying Russia was America’s “number one geopolitical foe”. Today that is the Democratic position. Mr Trump is clearly a fan of Russia. His behaviour also fits with the theory that Mr Putin has kompromat on him. In due course, we are likely to find out which parts of the Russian dossier on Mr Trump are true.

普京是個希望給西方抹黑的機會主義者。但美國自己早已在這么做。普京不過是朝火上澆些煤油。假新聞市場的存在早于普京。就像英國小報《太陽報》(Sun)會宣稱的那樣：關(guān)鍵是西方那幫人拎不清。第二個問題是，這一切看起來像是赤裸裸的黨派之爭。去年，民主黨譴責聯(lián)邦調(diào)查局是一個受損的機構(gòu)。如今，他們把該局吹捧為公德化身。2012年，民主黨抨擊共和黨候選人米特•羅姆尼(Mitt Romney)把俄羅斯稱為美國的“頭號地緣政治對手”。如今，這成為了民主黨的立場。特朗普顯然是俄羅斯的粉絲。他的行為也符合普京掌握了他的污點材料的理論。在適當?shù)臅r候，我們很可能會發(fā)現(xiàn)，特朗普的“俄羅斯檔案”里哪些部分是真實的。

Which leads on to the third problem. Democrats want to see Mr Trump impeached. Anyone who cares about the west’s future should want to see the back of Mr Trump. But it is unwise for Democrats to will that outcome by judicial means. Mr Trump was elected at the ballot box. He must also be ejected there. Anything else risks being seen as an elite coup — like Britain’s parliament overturning Brexit without another referendum. Most Americans are clearly bored with the details of alleged collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia. Perhaps they will take notice if Robert Mueller unearths something dramatic. Until then, the Democratic obsession with Russia looks rash.

這引起了第三個問題。民主黨想看到特朗普遭到彈劾。任何關(guān)心西方未來的人，應該都想看到特朗普走人。但是由民主黨人企圖通過司法手段來達到這一目的是不明智的。特朗普是通過民主選舉當選的。要趕走他，也必須通過民主選舉。任何其他方式都可能被視為一種精英政變——就像英國議會不經(jīng)過另一場公投而推翻英國退歐。大多數(shù)美國人明顯對特朗普競選陣營與俄羅斯之間據(jù)稱勾結(jié)的細節(jié)感到了厭倦。如果特別檢察官羅伯特•穆勒(Robert Mueller)挖出某些戲劇性的黑幕，他們也許會感興趣。在那之前，民主黨在俄羅斯問題上的糾結(jié)顯得輕率。

It is also a boost to Mr Putin’s ego. The idea that a struggling petro-state thousands of miles away could manipulate the world’s greatest democracy is beyond flattering. It is empowering. As The New York Times reported, blaming Mr Trump’s victory on Moscow has tightened Mr Putin’s domestic grip. There is no need for staged pictures of a bare-chested Mr Putin on horseback. Just sit back and listen to the Democratic party.

這也提振了普京的自負。一個遙遠的、經(jīng)濟不怎么樣的石油國家竟然能夠操縱世界上最偉大的民主國家——這種觀點超出了恭維，簡直是在助長普京的威望。正如《紐約時報》所報道的，把特朗普獲勝歸咎于莫斯科，已強化了普京對國內(nèi)的掌控。沒必要公布精心安排的、裸露著胸膛的普京在馬背上的照片。只要躺在沙發(fā)上，聽聽美國的民主黨在怎么說就行了。

[email protected] 譯者/何黎