贊比亞學(xué)者：美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)優(yōu)勢(shì)面臨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

Ask people who remain positive about America’s long-term economic future about the reasons for their optimism and many will point to three unique selling points of the country: entrepreneurial spirit, world-class educational institutions and the depth of its financial capital markets.

如果問問那些仍然看好美國(guó)長(zhǎng)期經(jīng)濟(jì)前景的人為什么這么樂觀，很多人就會(huì)指出美國(guó)特有的三個(gè)優(yōu)勢(shì)：創(chuàng)業(yè)精神、世界級(jí)教育機(jī)構(gòu)及其金融資本市場(chǎng)的深度。

There is no question that US entrepreneurial spirit has set itself apart from both developing and developed countries over many decades. America is the home of Silicon Valley and the companies that lead the world of technological innovation — encapsulated in the highly valuable technology stocks of the Fangs: Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google. The big consumer names of Coca-Cola, McDonald’s and Starbucks continue to dominate their markets globally, as do the automotive giants — Ford, General Motors and now Tesla — and industrial and aeronautical behemoths such as General Electric and Boeing.

毫無疑問，好幾十年來，不論是和發(fā)展中國(guó)家還是發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家相比，美國(guó)的創(chuàng)業(yè)精神都是出類拔萃的。美國(guó)是硅谷的所在地，擁有引領(lǐng)著全球技術(shù)創(chuàng)新的眾多企業(yè)，體現(xiàn)于Fang這樣市值極高的科技股：Facebook、亞馬遜(Amazon)、Netflix和谷歌(Google)?？煽诳蓸?Coca-Cola)、麥當(dāng)勞(McDonald’s)和星巴克(Starbucks)這些響當(dāng)當(dāng)?shù)南M(fèi)品牌繼續(xù)在全球主宰著各自的市場(chǎng)，汽車巨頭們也一樣——福特(Ford)、通用汽車(General Motors)以及如今的特斯拉(Tesla)——還有像通用電氣(General Electric)和波音(Boeing)這樣的工業(yè)、航空業(yè)巨擘。

The country’s educational institutions also retain their pre-eminence in terms of research and development, and as innovators in medicine, technology and telecommunications.

在研發(fā)方面，尤其是在醫(yī)學(xué)、技術(shù)及電信領(lǐng)域的創(chuàng)新方面，美國(guó)的教育機(jī)構(gòu)也保持著首屈一指的地位。

Finally, ÛS financial capital markets are the global benchmark for breadth and depth in providing liquidity to established companies and fuelling funding for start-ups.

最后，無論是為成熟企業(yè)提供流動(dòng)資金還是為初創(chuàng)企業(yè)融資，美國(guó)金融資本市場(chǎng)的廣度和深度也都成為全球基準(zhǔn)。

But for how much longer can America retain its leadership in these three areas? There are growing signs that its status in each is being challenged.

但美國(guó)在這三個(gè)領(lǐng)域的領(lǐng)先地位還能維持多久?越來越多的跡象表明，在以上每個(gè)領(lǐng)域，美國(guó)的地位都面臨著挑戰(zhàn)。

Take entrepreneurship and business, where its dominance faces competition from the growing power of corporate China. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Construction Bank now occupy the top two positions of the Forbes Global 2,000, an annual ranking that reflects not just market capitalisation but also sales, profit and assets. In the 2017 list, Chinese corporates hold four places in the top 10 with one from Japan and five from the US.

拿創(chuàng)業(yè)和企業(yè)來說，日益強(qiáng)大的中國(guó)企業(yè)給美國(guó)的主導(dǎo)地位帶來了競(jìng)爭(zhēng)壓力。中國(guó)工商銀行(ICBC)與中國(guó)建設(shè)銀行(CCB)如今占據(jù)著《福布斯》全球2000強(qiáng)(Forbes Global 2,000)榜單的前兩名，這一年度排名不僅體現(xiàn)企業(yè)的市值，還反映其銷售、利潤(rùn)及資產(chǎn)情況。2017年榜單的前10名中，中國(guó)企業(yè)占了4個(gè)位置，另外還有1家日本企業(yè)及5家美國(guó)企業(yè)。

Even more worrying is the long-term decline in entrepreneurship. According to the think-tank New America, the number of new employer-created businesses in the US halved between 1977 and 2010 (from 35 per 10,000 Americans to 17 per 10,000). The share of self-employed Americans dropped by 20 per cent from 1991-2010.

更令人擔(dān)憂的是創(chuàng)業(yè)精神的長(zhǎng)期衰退。據(jù)智庫(kù)“新美國(guó)”(New America)介紹，從1977年至2010年，美國(guó)新雇主創(chuàng)建的企業(yè)數(shù)量減半(從每1萬個(gè)美國(guó)人創(chuàng)辦35家企業(yè)，降至每1萬個(gè)美國(guó)人創(chuàng)辦17家企業(yè))。從1991年至2010年，美國(guó)自雇人士所占比例下降了20%。

More recent data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics suggest a revival in entrepreneurship from 2010-2015, with a 23 per cent rise in the number of business establishments less than a year old. Crucially, however, those are supporting 1m fewer jobs — only 3m in 2015 compared with more than 4m 20 years ago.

美國(guó)勞工統(tǒng)計(jì)局(US Bureau of Labor Statistics)近年的數(shù)據(jù)似乎顯示，從2010年至2015年期間，創(chuàng)業(yè)有所回溫，成立不滿一年的企業(yè)數(shù)量上升了23%。然而，關(guān)鍵問題在于，這些企業(yè)提供的就業(yè)崗位減少了100萬個(gè)——2015年僅提供了300萬個(gè)就業(yè)崗位，而在20年前創(chuàng)業(yè)產(chǎn)生的就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)有400多萬個(gè)。

Meanwhile, in 2016, for the first time in 12 years, the Times Higher Education global rankings for universities showed that the number one slot went outside the US (to the University of Oxford). Furthermore, the survey highlights the surge of Chinese universities, especially in the field of engineering and technology: China now has 35 institutions in the top 100 engineering and tech rankings, up from just seven in 2016.

與此同時(shí)，2016年位列“泰晤士報(bào)高等教育世界大學(xué)排行榜”(Times Higher Education World University Rankings)首位的學(xué)府，12年來首次花落美國(guó)以外的大學(xué)：牛津大學(xué)(University of Oxford)。此外，中國(guó)的大學(xué)也異軍突起，特別是在工程技術(shù)領(lǐng)域：目前，在全球100所頂級(jí)工程技術(shù)院校中，有35家中國(guó)高校，而2016年只有7家。

The number of foreign students at American higher education institutions has grown to more 1m today. However, there is evidence of a slowing of growth in new applications and enrolments. According to the Institute of Internal Education, the number of new international students enrolling in 2016-17 fell 3 per cent from 2015-16. In the same period, the number of Indians applying for the F1 student visa declined 16 per cent.

如今，在美國(guó)高校就讀的外國(guó)學(xué)生已有100多萬。然而，新增申請(qǐng)者和入學(xué)者的數(shù)量都有放緩跡象。美國(guó)國(guó)際教育協(xié)會(huì)(Institute of International Education，簡(jiǎn)稱IIE)表示，2016-17學(xué)年入學(xué)的國(guó)際學(xué)生人數(shù)比上一年下降了3%。與此同時(shí)，申請(qǐng)F(tuán)1學(xué)生簽證的印度申請(qǐng)者人數(shù)下降了16%。

This is worrying because, traditionally, Indians have formed a large proportion of science, technology, engineering and maths (Stem) student ranks. According to the World Economic Forum and the National Center for Educational Statistics respectively, 568,000 Stem graduates, and 1.9m bachelor degrees were awarded in the US in 2015. These numbers, though not precisely like for like, indicate that Stem graduates make up roughly 30 per cent of graduates in the US.

這很令人擔(dān)憂，因?yàn)橐酝茖W(xué)、技術(shù)、工程與數(shù)學(xué)(STEM)專業(yè)的學(xué)生中有很大一部分都來自印度。世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇(World Economic Forum)和美國(guó)國(guó)家教育統(tǒng)計(jì)中心(National Center for Educational Statistics)的數(shù)據(jù)分別顯示，2015年美國(guó)有56.8萬名STEM專業(yè)畢業(yè)生，同時(shí)有190萬人獲得學(xué)士學(xué)位。雖然這些數(shù)字嚴(yán)格說來并不可比，但足以顯示STEM專業(yè)畢業(yè)生約占美國(guó)大學(xué)畢業(yè)生總數(shù)的30%。

IIE data show 80 per cent of the more than 130,000 Indian students in the US are enrolled in Stem degrees. But many are returning home after graduating, leaving America’s economy without the benefit of the skills and knowledge they have acquired. This is in large part down to the caps on visas and difficulties foreign graduates have in securing a green card.

IIE的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，在美國(guó)的逾13萬印度學(xué)生中，有80%在攻讀STEM專業(yè)學(xué)位。但這些學(xué)生有很多在畢業(yè)后回國(guó)，使美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)不能受益于他們獲得的技能與知識(shí)。這在很大程度上歸因于簽證數(shù)量上限以及外國(guó)畢業(yè)生獲得綠卡的難度。

Finally, US stock markets are less expansive than before. The Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index reached a peak of 7,562 publicly listed US stocks in 1998. As of the end of 2016, there were just over 3,600 left, a drop of more than 50 per cent. This sharp decline in part reflects the growth of companies being taken private and share buy backs, as corporate leadership becomes less confident about the volatility and vagaries of the stock market, and their ability to navigate the increasing myopia of investors.

最后，美國(guó)股市在廣度上也不及以往了。威爾夏5000全市場(chǎng)指數(shù)(Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index)納入的美國(guó)上市股票在1998年達(dá)到7562支的峰頂。截至2016年底只剩下3600支，降幅超過50%。這在某種程度上表明，隨著企業(yè)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層對(duì)股市波動(dòng)性和反復(fù)無常、對(duì)他們應(yīng)對(duì)日益短視的投資者的能力變得不那么有信心，越來越多公司走上收歸私有和股票回購(gòu)的道路。

Despite such fundamentally negative shifts, optimists might still argue that the US need not excessively worry about these three trends. After all the US remains, unlike many other countries, largely self-sufficient in terms of access to arable land, potable water, minerals and increasing levels of energy security. But it is becoming patently clear that the factors presented here, if ignored, will cause economic damage over the long term.

即便存在著如此根本性的消極變化，樂觀主義者們可能仍認(rèn)為，美國(guó)不必過分擔(dān)心這三個(gè)趨勢(shì)。畢竟，與其他許多國(guó)家不同，美國(guó)在可耕地、飲用水、礦產(chǎn)資源等方面基本上是自給自足的，能源安全水平也越來越高。然而，越來越明顯的是，如果忽視上述因素，將在長(zhǎng)期造成經(jīng)濟(jì)損害。

The writer is a global economist and the author most recently of ‘Winner Take All’. She serves on the boards of Barclays Bank, Barrick Gold, Chevron and Seagate Technology

本文作者是一位全球經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家，最近的著作為《贏者通吃》(Winner Take All)。她是巴克萊銀行(Barclays Bank)、巴里克黃金公司(Barrick Gold)、雪佛龍(Chevron)和希捷科技(and Seagate Technology)董事會(huì)董事