達(dá)沃斯論壇與會(huì)者最擔(dān)心什么？

The $160bn Bridgewater hedge fund produced a chart last year about modern politics that was alarming for at least two reasons. First, the number crunching revealed that the proportion of votes garnered by populist, anti-establishment candidates in the west, such as US President Donald Trump, France’s Marine Le Pen and Jeremy Corbyn, leader of the UK Labour party, exploded from 7 per cent in 2010 to 35 per cent in 2017.

去年，規(guī)模為1600億美元的對(duì)沖基金B(yǎng)ridgewater發(fā)布了一張有關(guān)現(xiàn)代政治的圖表，這張圖表令人震驚的原因至少有兩個(gè)。首先，圖中數(shù)據(jù)顯示，西方民粹主義、反建制派候選人(例如美國(guó)總統(tǒng)唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)、法國(guó)的馬琳•勒龐(Marine Le Pen)以及英國(guó)工黨黨魁杰里米•科爾賓(Jeremy Corbyn))獲得的投票比例從2010年的7%飆升至2017年的35%。

Second, the chart showed that the only time an increase of this magnitude occurred in recent memory was in the 1930s, when another financial crisis led to populism. That time, the swing prefigured the rise of nationalism and led to war. Could history repeat itself?

第二，這張圖表顯示，最近歷史上出現(xiàn)過(guò)的唯一一次這么大幅度的數(shù)字飆升是在上世紀(jì)30年代，當(dāng)時(shí)也是一場(chǎng)金融危機(jī)導(dǎo)致民粹主義出現(xiàn)。那時(shí)，這種變化預(yù)示著民族主義的崛起并導(dǎo)致戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)。歷史是否會(huì)重演?

The global elite increasingly fears so. The World Economic Forum on Wednesday released its annual survey of the main concerns of its members.

全球精英越來(lái)越擔(dān)心歷史再次重演。世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇(WEF)上周三公布了對(duì)其成員的主要擔(dān)憂的年度調(diào)查結(jié)果。

Economic and financial risks used to be at the forefront of delegates’ minds. At the start of this decade, for example, issues such as banking crises, rising debt and slow growth topped the rankings.

經(jīng)濟(jì)和金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)曾經(jīng)是世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇代表們擔(dān)心的首要問(wèn)題。例如，在本10年之初，銀行業(yè)危機(jī)、債務(wù)增加以及增長(zhǎng)緩慢等問(wèn)題排在前列。

Yet in 2018 those financial risks no longer appear on the dashboard; or certainly not close to the top. Instead, business executives, financial titans and political pundits fret about the issues that emphatically cannot be solved — or even modelled — by economists and financiers.

然而，2018年，這些金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)不再出現(xiàn)在代表們的腦海里;或者肯定不會(huì)排在前面。企業(yè)高管、金融巨擘和政治專家擔(dān)心的是那些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家和金融家斷然無(wú)法解決(甚至構(gòu)建模型)的問(wèn)題。

WEF members fear that inequality is sparking dangerous social fractures and the populism revealed by the Bridgewater chart. They are deeply concerned about “extreme weather events”, “natural disasters” and “failure of climate change mitigation”.

世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇成員擔(dān)心，不平等正引發(fā)危險(xiǎn)的社會(huì)分裂以及Bridgewater那張圖表所揭示的民粹主義。讓他們深感擔(dān)憂的是“極端天氣事件”、“自然災(zāi)害”和“氣候變化未能減緩”。

Yet the other threat cited is one that barely rated a few years ago: war. The biggest perceived danger of 2018, in terms of impact, is that somebody uses weapons of mass destruction. There is also rising concern about its digital proxy: cyber attacks.

然而，他們列出的另一項(xiàng)威脅在幾年前幾乎都沒(méi)有提到：戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)。他們感到2018年最大的危險(xiǎn)(從影響來(lái)看)是有人會(huì)使用大規(guī)模殺傷性武器。越來(lái)越多的人還擔(dān)心戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的數(shù)字代理：網(wǎng)絡(luò)攻擊。

Nearly all — 93 per cent — WEF members think that political and economic conflicts between countries will increase this year; 79 per cent believe there is a rising danger of military conflicts; and 78 per cent expect that large countries will be drawn into regional battles. Unsurprisingly, this leaves two-thirds of WEF delegates nursing the gloomy conclusion that the world will be riskier in 2018 than last year.

世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇幾乎所有成員(93%)都認(rèn)為，今年，國(guó)家之間的政治和經(jīng)濟(jì)沖突會(huì)增多：79%的人認(rèn)為，軍事沖突的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)日益增加，78%的人預(yù)測(cè)，大國(guó)將卷入地區(qū)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)。毫不令人意外的是，世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇有三分之二的代表得出悲觀的結(jié)論：今年全球風(fēng)險(xiǎn)將高于去年。

It is entirely possible that this perception is wrong. One longstanding joke about the WEF, which will undoubtedly surface again at next week’s summit, is that investors should treat the Davos debate as a contra-indicator, as it usually tends to miss the important issues of the day.

這種看法完全有可能是錯(cuò)誤的。長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)有關(guān)世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇的一個(gè)笑話(這次峰會(huì)上肯定會(huì)再次出現(xiàn))是，投資者應(yīng)把達(dá)沃斯辯論視為“反指標(biāo)”，因?yàn)樗鶗?huì)錯(cuò)過(guò)當(dāng)下的重要問(wèn)題。

Although charts such as Bridgewater’s are fascinating, the 1930s is not the only decade that investors need to study. In the late 19th century (before electoral data could be compiled), the US also had a financial crisis that created populism; but that time it did not lead to war.

盡管Bridgewater等機(jī)構(gòu)的圖表很有趣，但上世紀(jì)30年代并非投資者需要研究的唯一十年。19世紀(jì)末(在選舉數(shù)據(jù)可匯編之前)，美國(guó)還遭遇過(guò)一場(chǎng)金融危機(jī)，催生了民粹主義;但那一次沒(méi)有導(dǎo)致戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)。

Even if the WEF survey is crude, it does reflect a consensus towards more conflict that is already entrenched. There is a cloud of speculation in Washington that Mr Trump is considering unilateral action against North Korea, even as Saudi Arabia sucks America into a war with Iran, and tension escalates between China and the US.

即便世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇的調(diào)查有些粗糙，但它確實(shí)反映出沖突增加的共識(shí)，這種共識(shí)已根深蒂固。華盛頓彌漫著一種猜測(cè)，認(rèn)為特朗普正考慮對(duì)朝鮮發(fā)起單邊行動(dòng)，即便同時(shí)沙特阿拉伯正把美國(guó)拉入與伊朗的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)，同時(shí)中國(guó)與美國(guó)的緊張關(guān)系加劇。

Next week, Mr Trump will travel to Davos and, undoubtedly, will try to extend some olive branches. But he will face deep scepticism: a Gallup poll published on Thursday shows that confidence in US leadership has collapsed around the world in the past year. Fractures abound.

特朗普本周將出席達(dá)沃斯論壇，他肯定會(huì)努力遞出幾枝橄欖枝。但他將面臨嚴(yán)重懷疑：上周四發(fā)表的一份蓋洛普(Gallup)調(diào)查顯示，過(guò)去一年全球?qū)γ绹?guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層的信心大幅下滑。到處是分裂。

Even if Davos can sometimes operate as an echo chamber, the WEF survey should give investors pause for thought, particularly when they look at the sky-high level of asset prices in western markets, despite low levels of volatility. It should also spur debate among investment committees and executives about whether they can create hedges to cope with this deeply fractured — and potentially dangerous — world.

即便達(dá)沃斯有時(shí)可以充當(dāng)一個(gè)“回音室”，但世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇的這項(xiàng)調(diào)查應(yīng)讓投資者停下來(lái)思考，尤其是在他們目睹西方市場(chǎng)資產(chǎn)價(jià)格高企(盡管波動(dòng)性低)的情況下。它還應(yīng)促使投資委員會(huì)和高管們就他們能否建立對(duì)沖應(yīng)對(duì)這個(gè)嚴(yán)重分裂(還可能危險(xiǎn))的世界展開(kāi)辯論。

Traditionally, the answer has been “no”. Investors are bad at preparing for tail risks; war is not an environmental danger that can be modelled. But it is a fair bet that 2018 will be a year when the financial industry scrambles to offer a plethora of Armageddon hedges; indeed, the sales pitch will undoubtedly start in Davos next week.

過(guò)去，答案一直是否定的。投資者不善于為尾部風(fēng)險(xiǎn)做準(zhǔn)備;戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)并非可以建模的環(huán)境危險(xiǎn)。但我們可以有把握地說(shuō)，2018年，金融行業(yè)將爭(zhēng)相提供大量對(duì)沖“世界末日”的產(chǎn)品;實(shí)際上，這些產(chǎn)品的銷售宣傳肯定將在達(dá)沃斯開(kāi)始。

We should hope — and pray — that this chatter helps to focus minds among the global elite in a way that at least delays the impending apocalypse.

我們應(yīng)該希望和祈禱這種辯論有助于全球精英集中思想，至少推遲已在逼近的“世界末日”的到來(lái)。

In the meantime, keep a close eye on what Davos is not worrying about enough this year: that pesky matter of global finance, particularly in places such as China.

與此同時(shí)，密切關(guān)注達(dá)沃斯今年擔(dān)心不夠的事情吧——也就是全球金融這個(gè)大麻煩，尤其是在中國(guó)等地。