全球債市拋售加劇

The global bond market sell-off deepened on Monday, lifting the 10-year US Treasury yield above 2.7 per cent for the first time in nearly four years and sparking concerns that the roaring stock market rally could be vulnerable to a reversal.

全球債券市場的拋售周一加劇，10年期美國國債收益率近4年來首次超過2.7%，引發(fā)人們對于股市飆升可能逆轉(zhuǎn)的擔(dān)心。

Mounting optimism over the strength of the world economy has buoyed equities, which have enjoyed their best start to a year since 1987, but stirred concerns that long-dormant inflation might finally make a comeback and force central banks to turn more aggressive.

人們對世界經(jīng)濟(jì)走強(qiáng)日益樂觀的情緒近期推高了股市。今年是自1987年以來股市開局表現(xiàn)最好的一年，但這也引發(fā)了人們的擔(dān)憂：即長期蟄伏的通脹也許終于會卷土重來，迫使各國央行變得更加激進(jìn)。

However, some investors and analysts are now questioning how long bond yields can continue to rise without puncturing the mounting euphoria in global stock markets.

不過，一些投資者和分析師現(xiàn)在開始提問，長期債券收益率持續(xù)升高，怎么會戳不破人們對于全球股市日益加劇的興奮情緒?

Rising bond yields make borrowing more expensive, potentially straining some companies that have been relying on cheap money to grow.

債券收益率不斷上升將推高借款成本，可能將一些依賴廉價(jià)資金實(shí)現(xiàn)增長的公司置于困境。

The FTSE All-World index fell by 0.5 per cent on Monday, its worst performance since mid-November, and Goldman Sachs’ chief global equity strategist Peter Oppenheimer warned in a note that “a correction is becoming increasingly likely”, exacerbating concerns that a reversal is overdue.

富時(shí)環(huán)球指數(shù)(FTSE All World Index)周一下跌0.5%，為去年11月中旬以來最糟糕表現(xiàn)。高盛(Goldman Sachs)首席全球股票策略師彼得•奧本海默(Peter Oppenheimer)在一份簡報(bào)中警告稱，“股市回調(diào)正變得越來越有可能”，這加劇了人們對于行情逆轉(zhuǎn)早就應(yīng)該到來的擔(dān)憂。

“It all feels a little bit euphoric,” said Larry Hatheway, chief economist at GAM, the investment group. “It has led to a lot of people thinking that we should prepare the groundwork for some risk mitigation strategies. This can’t go on forever.”

“這一切讓人感覺有點(diǎn)欣快過頭，”投資集團(tuán)GAM的首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家拉里•夏德威(Larry Hatheway)說，“這導(dǎo)致很多人認(rèn)為，我們應(yīng)該為一些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)緩解策略做好鋪墊。這波行情不會永遠(yuǎn)持續(xù)下去。”

Investors now expect the Federal Reserve to follow through on its plans to raise interest rates three times this year, and the European Central Bank is forecast to end its crisis-era stimulus programme. There is also nervousness that the Bank of Japan could scale back some of its ultra-aggressive stimulus later in 2018.

投資者現(xiàn)在預(yù)計(jì)美聯(lián)儲(Fed)今年將執(zhí)行其加息三次的計(jì)劃，并預(yù)計(jì)歐洲央行(ECB)將結(jié)束危機(jī)時(shí)期的刺激計(jì)劃。還有人擔(dān)心，日本央行(BoJ)可能會在2018年晚些時(shí)候縮減一部分極端激進(jìn)的刺激措施。

That lifted the 10-year US Treasury yield, the most widely watched interest rate in the global economy, by 5 basis points to a peak of 2.73 per cent on Monday, the highest since April 2014. The 10-year German Bund climbed 7bp to 0.69 per cent, lifting the five-year Bund yield back into positive territory for the first time since November 2015.

這使得10年期美國國債收益率(全球經(jīng)濟(jì)中最受關(guān)注的利率)在周一上升5個(gè)基點(diǎn)，至2.73%的峰值，為2014年4月以來最高水平。10年期德國國債收益率攀升7個(gè)基點(diǎn)，至0.69%，5年期德國國債收益率自2015年11月以來首次回到正值區(qū)間。