文在寅的靜默外交：他如何緩和朝核危機(jī)？

For almost his entire political career, South Korean President Moon Jae-in has been dogged by criticism that he is an appeaser who lacks the diplomatic prowess to deal with North Korea.

在幾乎整個(gè)政治生涯中，韓國(guó)總統(tǒng)文在寅(Moon Jae-in)一直被批評(píng)是一個(gè)綏靖主義者，欠缺與朝鮮打交道所需的高超外交手腕。

Now the Korean peninsula seemingly stands on the cusp of a breakthrough, with Pyongyang appearing willing to compromise on its nuclear weapons programme — a situation analysts say could not have happened without the quiet, careful diplomacy of Mr Moon.

現(xiàn)在，朝鮮半島局勢(shì)似乎即將取得突破性進(jìn)展，朝鮮看起來(lái)愿意在核武計(jì)劃上妥協(xié)——分析人士表示，如果沒(méi)有文在寅低調(diào)謹(jǐn)慎的外交斡旋，這種局面是不可能達(dá)成的。

“Mr Moon should be credited for significantly reducing the risk of war on the Korean peninsula by opening dialogue with North Korea,” says Paik Hak-soon, a researcher at the Sejong Institute.

“文在寅應(yīng)該受到贊揚(yáng)，他通過(guò)與朝鮮展開(kāi)對(duì)話(huà)，大大降低了朝鮮半島爆發(fā)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，”世宗研究院(Sejong Institute)研究員白鶴淳(Paik Hak-soon)說(shuō)。

“He has managed to find common interest between the two Koreas . . . He also understands the US dilemma in tackling North Korea’s nuclear and missile problems. It is almost impossible for [US President] Trump to stop North Korea’s missile development without opening dialogue.” he adds.

他補(bǔ)充道：“他找到了朝韓兩國(guó)的共同利益……他還理解美國(guó)在應(yīng)對(duì)朝鮮核及導(dǎo)彈問(wèn)題上的困境。不展開(kāi)對(duì)話(huà)，(美國(guó)總統(tǒng))特朗普(Trump)要阻止朝鮮的導(dǎo)彈研發(fā)計(jì)劃幾乎是不可能的。”

The challenge now for the South Korean leader will be to successfully hand the baton over to Mr Trump to pursue negotiations with Pyongyang over its weapons programmes.

現(xiàn)在，文在寅面臨的挑戰(zhàn)是能否成功地把接力棒交給特朗普，讓美國(guó)就朝鮮的武器項(xiàng)目與朝鮮展開(kāi)談判。

“If [Moon] orchestrated things in the driver’s seat so far, now he needs to manage and co-ordinate things from the back seat,” says Chung Sung-yoon, a researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification.

“如果說(shuō)，到目前為止(文在寅)是坐在司機(jī)的位置上安排事情，現(xiàn)在他需要從后排座位上處理和協(xié)調(diào)事情，”韓國(guó)統(tǒng)一研究院(Korea Institute for National Unification)研究員Chung Sung-yoon說(shuō)。

“It requires a different sort of leadership as a mediator and he may face some limits in this new role.”

“作為調(diào)停者需要具備一種不同的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)力，擔(dān)當(dāng)這個(gè)新角色，他可能面臨一些限制。”

Since he was elected almost a year ago, the South Korean leader has had to walk a fine line.

當(dāng)選總統(tǒng)近一年來(lái)，這位韓國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人一直不得不小心謹(jǐn)慎地維持一種平衡。

A long-time advocate of engagement, he has attempted to build bridges with the Kim Jong Un regime while maintaining policy cohesion with the US — a key ally that has sought to isolate and economically punish Pyongyang for its development of ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons.

長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)一直支持采取接觸策略的文在寅試圖與金正恩(Kim Jong Un)政權(quán)建立起橋梁，同時(shí)維持與美國(guó)的政策統(tǒng)一性——美國(guó)是韓國(guó)的關(guān)鍵盟友，而美國(guó)一直尋求孤立和從經(jīng)濟(jì)上懲罰發(fā)展彈道導(dǎo)彈和核武器的朝鮮。

The challenge was magnified last month after Mr Moon invited a North Korean delegation to participate in the Winter Olympics Games in South Korea.

上月，在文在寅邀請(qǐng)朝鮮代表團(tuán)參加在韓國(guó)舉行的冬季奧運(yùn)會(huì)(Winter Olympics Games)之后，這一挑戰(zhàn)變得更為艱巨。

For observers, the invitation risked alienating Mr Moon not only from South Korean voters but also the hawkish political establishment in Washington.

觀察人士認(rèn)為，文在寅發(fā)出這一邀請(qǐng)，不僅可能與韓國(guó)選民疏遠(yuǎn)，還有可能與華盛頓政界中的鷹派疏遠(yuǎn)。

But the move appears to be paying dividends, with an exultant Mr Kim on Monday telling officials from Seoul that his regime was willing to consider denuclearisation and would stop weapons testing during talks.

但此舉似乎正在帶來(lái)回報(bào)，周一，金正恩十分高興地告訴首爾來(lái)使，他的政權(quán)愿意考慮無(wú)核化，并將在對(duì)話(huà)期間停止武器試驗(yàn)。

North Korea regularly reneges on its promises and negotiations with Pyongyang have often proved futile. But the overtures have nonetheless been hailed as a breakthrough on a peninsula that months ago appeared on the brink of war.

朝鮮經(jīng)常違背許下的諾言，與平壤方面的磋商常被證明是徒勞的。但金正恩的提議還是被稱(chēng)頌為半島局勢(shì)的突破性進(jìn)展，畢竟數(shù)月前朝鮮半島看似將要滑向戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)邊緣。

For observers, the developments are a result of Mr Moon’s step-by-step diplomacy; in particular, his insistence that denuclearisation be on table before agreeing to a mooted inter-Korean summit next month.

觀察人士認(rèn)為，這些發(fā)展是文在寅循序漸進(jìn)的外交斡旋促成的;尤其是，他堅(jiān)持無(wú)核化要在討論范圍內(nèi)，然后才同意下月舉行朝韓峰會(huì)的提議。

That apparent concession by Pyongyang was essential to ensuring the support and inclusion of Washington in future dialogue.

朝鮮貌似作出了讓步，這一點(diǎn)很重要，有利于確保華盛頓支持和加入未來(lái)的對(duì)話(huà)。

“[Moon] was wise not to immediately accept Pyongyang’s offer of an inter-Korean summit, instead talking about the right atmosphere and conditions. This was done mindful of the US stance on the talks,” says Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies.

“(文在寅)沒(méi)有立即接受朝方關(guān)于舉行朝韓峰會(huì)的提議，而是討論起舉行峰會(huì)所需的正確氣氛和條件，這是明智之舉。這是考慮到美國(guó)在對(duì)話(huà)上的立場(chǎng)而做出的舉動(dòng)，”首爾朝鮮研究大學(xué)(University of North Korean Studies)的楊武仁教授(Yang Moo-jin)說(shuō)。

“It is impressive progress that he has managed to extend inter-Korean talks to US-North Korea talks,” he adds.

“他設(shè)法把朝韓對(duì)話(huà)擴(kuò)大為美朝對(duì)話(huà)，這是一個(gè)了不起的進(jìn)展，”他補(bǔ)充道。

Seoul’s subtle diplomacy was also evident from the decision to move the inter-Korean summit between Mr Kim and Mr Moon from Pyongyang to the demilitarised zone between the two countries.

雙方?jīng)Q定將金正恩和文在寅的峰會(huì)舉行地點(diǎn)從平壤轉(zhuǎn)到兩國(guó)之間的非軍事區(qū)，凸顯出首爾巧妙外交手段的作用。

This effectively denies Mr Kim the financial and propaganda spoils of hosting a high-profile summit within his borders.

這可有效防止金正恩獲得在朝鮮國(guó)境內(nèi)舉行這場(chǎng)舉世矚目的峰會(huì)將帶來(lái)的金錢(qián)利益和宣傳效果。

“Holding the summit at the DMZ is also a smart move because it paves the way for making it a regular event. It is not likely to end up being a one-time thing,” says Prof Yang.

“在朝韓之間非軍事區(qū)舉行峰會(huì)也是聰明的一步，因?yàn)檫@為峰會(huì)走向常態(tài)化鋪平了道路。峰會(huì)不太可能只是舉行一次就作罷，”楊武仁教授說(shuō)。

If held as planned in April, it would only be the third time the leaders of North and South Korea will have met.

如果這次峰會(huì)照計(jì)劃在4月舉行，那將是朝韓領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人的第三次會(huì)面。

The public also appears to be backing the South Korea’s president efforts. After a wobble during the Olympics, his approval ratings have rebounded as dialogue with Pyongyang has progressed. A recent poll gave him a 66.5 per cent approval rating.

公眾似乎也支持韓國(guó)總統(tǒng)的努力。文在寅的支持率在冬奧會(huì)期間有所搖擺，但隨著朝韓對(duì)話(huà)取得進(jìn)展，他的支持率又回升了。最近的一次民意調(diào)查中，文在寅的支持率為66.5%。

Lee Jung-hyun, a finance professional in Seoul, says he is happy to see South Korea take a leading role in solving the North Korean situation.

首爾的金融專(zhuān)業(yè)人士Lee Jung-hyun說(shuō)，他很高興地看到韓國(guó)在應(yīng)對(duì)朝鮮局勢(shì)上發(fā)揮主導(dǎo)作用。

“I still have lingering doubts about the North’s sincerity about denuclearisation. But at least we are starting to see positive signals. I can give that credit to President Moon Jae-in,” he says.

“我依然對(duì)朝鮮無(wú)核化的誠(chéng)意心存疑慮。但至少我們開(kāi)始看到積極的信號(hào)。我認(rèn)為這歸功于文在寅總統(tǒng)，”他說(shuō)。

But analysts warn the next steps are likely to prove more treacherous.

但分析人士警告，接下來(lái)的局勢(shì)可能更加變幻莫測(cè)。

“From now on, things will be driven by the US, and Washington may not do things that Mr Moon likes,” says Mr Chung.

“從現(xiàn)在開(kāi)始，事情將由美國(guó)推動(dòng)，而華盛頓的所作所為可能不會(huì)如文在寅所愿，”韓國(guó)統(tǒng)一研究院研究員Chung Sung-yoon說(shuō)。

“The most important thing to watch is how he will handle South Korea’s relations with the US and North Korea when there is no visible progress in the denuclearisation front.”

“最重要的有待觀察的事情是，如果無(wú)核化方面未能取得明顯進(jìn)展，他將如何處理韓國(guó)與美國(guó)和與朝鮮的關(guān)系。”

Additional reporting by Kang Buseong Kang Buseong補(bǔ)充報(bào)道