美國(guó)通脹升至近一年最高水平

The Federal Reserve’s favoured inflation measure picked up to its strongest level in almost a year in February, supporting expectations that a solid economy and tight labour market are pushing price growth towards the central bank’s target.

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Federal Reserve)的首選通脹指標(biāo)2月升至近一年來(lái)最高水平，支持有關(guān)方面的預(yù)期：穩(wěn)健的經(jīng)濟(jì)和偏緊的勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)正將價(jià)格漲速推向美國(guó)央行的目標(biāo)水平。

The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy rose 1.6 per cent on the year, the largest increase since April 2017, according to a report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

根據(jù)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析局(Bureau of Economic Analysis)的報(bào)告，剔除食品和能源之后的個(gè)人消費(fèi)支出價(jià)格指數(shù)同比上漲1.6%，達(dá)到2017年4月以來(lái)的最大漲幅。

While that is well shy of the Fed’s 2 per cent target, the three-month annualised rate of gain is 2.8 per cent, said Michael Feroli of JPMorgan Chase. He predicted that year-on-year figures will continue to push higher in the coming months, taking inflation close to the Fed’s goal.

摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)的邁克爾•費(fèi)羅利(Michael Feroli)表示，盡管這仍遠(yuǎn)低于美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)2%的通脹目標(biāo)，但最近三個(gè)月的年化價(jià)格漲速達(dá)到2.8%。他預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)幾個(gè)月的同比數(shù)據(jù)將繼續(xù)上行，使通脹接近美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的目標(biāo)。

Core inflation has not exceeded 2 per cent since April 2012, complicating the picture for a central bank that has been gradually reducing its stimulus programmes. This year the Fed has been putting less weight on sluggish inflation numbers as the buoyant labour market bolsters confidence that it is on track to hit its target.

自2012年4月以來(lái)，核心通脹率一直未超過(guò)2%，這使近年逐漸縮減其刺激計(jì)劃的美國(guó)央行面對(duì)的局面復(fù)雜化。今年以來(lái)，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)對(duì)疲軟通脹數(shù)據(jù)不再看得很重，因?yàn)閺?qiáng)勁的勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)增強(qiáng)了官員們對(duì)于通脹將會(huì)觸及目標(biāo)的信心。

The central bank’s median forecast this month suggested core price growth will modestly overshoot the 2 per cent target next year, supporting arguments for further increases in short-term interest rates. Among the factors lifting price growth in February was higher healthcare prices — a notable development given the role healthcare has played in recent years holding overall inflation back.

美國(guó)央行本月發(fā)布的中值預(yù)測(cè)似乎顯示，核心價(jià)格漲幅明年將輕微超出2%的目標(biāo)水平，支持進(jìn)一步上調(diào)短期利率的主張。推動(dòng)2月份通脹上揚(yáng)的因素包括醫(yī)療價(jià)格上漲——考慮到近年來(lái)醫(yī)療費(fèi)用是拖累整體通脹的因素，這一發(fā)展值得注意。

“The overshoot [relative to what would be forecast based on consumer price index data] largely reflects a second straight jump in the hospital services component, which accounts for 10.4 per cent of the index,” Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said. “After years of margin compression, hospitals appear to be trying to exert pricing power”.

“通脹較高(相對(duì)于根據(jù)消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)數(shù)據(jù)預(yù)測(cè)的水平)主要反映了醫(yī)院服務(wù)板塊連續(xù)第二個(gè)月出現(xiàn)躍升，該板塊占指數(shù)的10.4%，”潘西恩宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)咨詢公司(Pantheon Macroeconomics)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家伊恩•謝潑德森(Ian Shepherdson)表示。“經(jīng)歷了多年的利潤(rùn)率壓縮之后，醫(yī)院似乎在試圖動(dòng)用定價(jià)能力”。

Personal income and personal spending were up on the month by 0.4 per cent and 0.2 per cent respectively. Economists are expecting a slight easing of economic growth in the first quarter compared with the revised 2.9 per cent annual rate reported for the fourth quarter of 2017. According to the Atlanta Fed, first-quarter growth is on track to be around 2.4 per cent.

個(gè)人收入和個(gè)人支出分別環(huán)比上漲0.4%和0.2%。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們預(yù)計(jì)，相比2017年第四季度修正后的2.9%年化增長(zhǎng)率，今年第一季度經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)將輕微放緩。亞特蘭大聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Atlanta Fed)表示，第一季度增長(zhǎng)將達(dá)到2.4%左右。

That would still represent above-trend growth, however, and tax cuts and public spending increases are expected to add fuel to the recovery in the coming months. The Fed raised rates last week and is predicting another two increases this year. Some economists expect policymakers to lift the outlook to three further rises.

然而，這仍將代表著高于趨勢(shì)線的增長(zhǎng)，而減稅和加大公共支出預(yù)計(jì)會(huì)在未來(lái)幾個(gè)月給經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇添加燃料。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)上周決定加息，并預(yù)計(jì)今年還將兩次上調(diào)利率。一些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)計(jì)政策制定者將調(diào)高預(yù)測(cè)至今年還將加息三次。

A gauge of consumer sentiment rose to its highest level since 2004 in March, according to the University of Michigan, highlighting the bright outlook among US households.

根據(jù)密歇根大學(xué)(University of Michigan)的數(shù)據(jù)，美國(guó)消費(fèi)者信心指數(shù)3月升至2004年以來(lái)最高水平，突顯美國(guó)家庭看好自己的前景。