特朗普對(duì)“特金會(huì)”疑慮漸深

WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump, increasingly concerned that his summit meeting in Singapore next month with North Korea’s leader could turn into a political embarrassment, has begun pressing his aides and allies about whether he should take the risk of proceeding with a historic meeting that he had leapt into accepting, according to administration and foreign officials.

華盛頓——據(jù)政府部門(mén)和外國(guó)官員稱(chēng)，唐納德·特朗普總統(tǒng)已開(kāi)始逼問(wèn)助手和盟友是否應(yīng)該冒險(xiǎn)繼續(xù)推進(jìn)自己草率同意的歷史性會(huì)晤。他越來(lái)越擔(dān)心，下個(gè)月將在新加坡舉行的與朝鮮領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人的會(huì)晤可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致政治尷尬。

Trump was both surprised and angered by a statement issued Wednesday by the North’s chief nuclear negotiator, who declared that the country would never trade away its nuclear weapons capability in exchange for economic aid, administration officials said. The statement, while a highly familiar tactic by the North, represented a jarring shift in tone after weeks of conciliatory gestures.

朝鮮首席核談判代表于周三發(fā)表聲明，宣布該國(guó)絕不會(huì)棄核換取經(jīng)濟(jì)援助。政府官員稱(chēng)，特朗普對(duì)此既震驚又惱怒。該聲明是朝鮮的一種慣常手段，表明朝鮮的口吻在數(shù)周和解姿態(tài)后出現(xiàn)了不和諧的轉(zhuǎn)變。

On Thursday and Friday, Trump peppered aides with questions about the wisdom of proceeding, and on Saturday night he called President Moon Jae-in of South Korea to ask why the North’s public statement seemed to contradict the private assurances that Moon had conveyed after he met Kim Jong Un, the 35-year-old dictator of the North, at the Demilitarized Zone in late April.

周四和周五兩天，特朗普都在不斷地向助手詢(xún)問(wèn)下一步的明智之舉。周六晚上，他致電韓國(guó)總統(tǒng)文在寅，詢(xún)問(wèn)為何朝鮮的公開(kāi)聲明與文在寅4月末在非軍事區(qū)與朝鮮35歲的獨(dú)裁者金正恩進(jìn)行會(huì)晤后向他傳達(dá)的私下承諾似乎存在矛盾。

The president’s conversation with Moon, which was first reported by The Washington Post, came just three days before the South Korean leader was scheduled to arrive in Washington to meet with Trump on Tuesday. It was a sign of Trump’s discomfort, some officials speculated, that he could not wait to discuss the issue until Moon arrived for his meetings here, though there is no indication that the president is considering pulling out of the North Korea talks.

總統(tǒng)與文在寅的談話(huà)最先由《華盛頓郵報(bào)》(The Washington Post)報(bào)道。本次談話(huà)發(fā)生于韓國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人計(jì)劃于周二前往華盛頓與特朗普進(jìn)行會(huì)晤的三天之前。一些官員猜測(cè)，這是特朗普不安的表現(xiàn)，他不愿等到文在寅前來(lái)會(huì)晤才討論這個(gè)問(wèn)題，不過(guò)也沒(méi)有跡象表明總統(tǒng)正在考慮退出與朝鮮的會(huì)談。

Trump’s aides have grown concerned that the president — who has said that “everyone thinks” he deserves a Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts — has signaled that he wants the summit meeting too much. The aides also worry that Kim, sensing the president’s eagerness, is prepared to offer assurances that will fade over time.

特朗普的助手越來(lái)越擔(dān)心，這位曾說(shuō)過(guò)“每個(gè)人都認(rèn)為”他的努力配得上一個(gè)諾貝爾和平獎(jiǎng)的總統(tǒng)表現(xiàn)得太過(guò)于渴望這次會(huì)晤了。助手們還擔(dān)心，金正恩察覺(jué)到了總統(tǒng)的急切心情，準(zhǔn)備提供無(wú)法持久的保證。

Moreover, Trump’s decision this month to withdraw from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal raises the stakes for the North Korea negotiation. If he emerges with anything less than what President Barack Obama got, which in Iran included the verified shipment of 97 percent of all nuclear material out of the country, it will be hard for Trump to convince anyone other than his base that the negotiation was a success.

此外，特朗普本月決定從2015年伊朗核協(xié)議中退出，抬高了朝鮮會(huì)談的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。如果他不能帶著和貝拉克·奧巴馬(Barack Obama)總統(tǒng)一樣多的東西——在伊朗談判中要求全部核材料的97%通過(guò)可核查貨運(yùn)運(yùn)出該國(guó)——離開(kāi)會(huì)談，那么對(duì)特朗普來(lái)說(shuō)，他將很難說(shuō)服除了自己的基本盤(pán)以外的其他人相信這次談判是一次勝利。

The aides are also concerned about what kind of grasp Trump has on the details of the North Korea program, and what he must insist upon as the key components of denuclearization. Moon and his aides reported that Kim seemed highly conversant with all elements of the program when the two men met, and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has made similar comments about Kim, based on his two meetings with him in Pyongyang, the North’s capital.

助手們還擔(dān)心，特朗普對(duì)朝鮮核計(jì)劃的細(xì)節(jié)有怎樣的把握，以及他必須堅(jiān)持將什么作為無(wú)核化的關(guān)鍵部分。文在寅和他的助手們報(bào)告稱(chēng)，從金正恩與文在寅的會(huì)晤可以看出，金似乎對(duì)核計(jì)劃的所有元素非常熟悉，美國(guó)國(guó)務(wù)卿邁克·龐皮歐(Mike Pompeo)基于自己與金正恩在朝鮮首都平壤的兩次會(huì)晤也對(duì)金做出了類(lèi)似的評(píng)價(jià)。

But aides who have recently left the administration say Trump has resisted the kind of detailed briefings about enrichment capabilities, plutonium reprocessing, nuclear weapons production and missile programs that Obama and President George W. Bush regularly sat through.

但最近從特朗普政府辭職的助手們表示，特朗普拒絕聽(tīng)取關(guān)于鈾濃縮能力、钚再加工、核武器生產(chǎn)和導(dǎo)彈計(jì)劃的詳細(xì)情況介紹。而奧巴馬和喬治·W·布什總統(tǒng)(George W. Bush)通常都會(huì)耐心聽(tīng)完。

Grappling with North Korea in negotiations is a new experience not just for Trump, but also for everyone else in the upper ranks of his administration. South Korean officials say that John R. Bolton, Trump’s new national security adviser, has been in near daily contact with his counterpart in Seoul, trying to work out a strategy.

在談判中與朝鮮較量不僅對(duì)特朗普來(lái)說(shuō)是前所未有的經(jīng)歷，對(duì)他的政府的上層人士來(lái)說(shuō)也是如此。韓國(guó)官員表示，特朗普的新任國(guó)家安全顧問(wèn)約翰·R·博爾頓(John R. Bolton)幾乎每天都與首爾的國(guó)家安全顧問(wèn)交流，試圖制定出一個(gè)策略。

Bolton has been clear that in his view the president should use the Singapore meeting to declare that the North must give up its entire arsenal and nuclear infrastructure before crippling economic sanctions are eased.

博爾頓已明確表示，在他看來(lái)，總統(tǒng)應(yīng)該利用新加坡會(huì)晤宣布，在致命的經(jīng)濟(jì)制裁放松之前，朝鮮必須放棄它的全部軍火庫(kù)和核基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施。

The South has been advocating a more traditional confidence-building approach, in which concessions by the North result in a gradual lifting of sanctions. But Trump has said he will not repeat that technique, because it led to failure by his four immediate predecessors.

韓國(guó)一直主張采取更傳統(tǒng)的建立信任的方式，那就是，對(duì)朝鮮的讓步給予制裁的逐步取消。但特朗普已表示，他不會(huì)重復(fù)那種做法，因?yàn)樗乃奈磺叭尉褪且驗(yàn)檫@種做法而失敗的。

Until now, administration officials have been saying they expect Kim to agree to denuclearization at the Singapore summit meeting and to set a schedule for a fast down payment over the next six months, which would involve turning over some number of nuclear weapons, closing production facilities and allowing inspectors to range the country.

直到現(xiàn)在，特朗普政府的官員們一直表示，他們期望金正恩在新加坡峰會(huì)上同意無(wú)核化，制訂一個(gè)在接下來(lái)的六個(gè)月里快速實(shí)現(xiàn)初步承諾的計(jì)劃，它將包括交出一定數(shù)量的核武器，關(guān)閉生產(chǎn)設(shè)施，允許檢查人員巡視朝鮮。

Those who have dealt with North Korea most intensively say that expectation will have to be scaled back if Trump expects success.

最近與朝鮮接觸最頻繁的人士表示，如果特朗普希望取得成功，那么就必須降低期望。

“If Trump is truly expecting to see a handover of nuclear weapons in six months, without anything in return, that is very unrealistic,” said Joseph Yun, the State Department’s North Korea coordinator until he retired a few months ago. He predicted that Trump would be forced into the kind of step-by-step measures that his predecessors attempted, “because there is no other way.”

“如果特朗普真的希望在六個(gè)月內(nèi)看到朝鮮在沒(méi)有得到任何回報(bào)的情況下交出核武器，那會(huì)是非常不現(xiàn)實(shí)的，”數(shù)月前辭職的美國(guó)國(guó)務(wù)院朝鮮事務(wù)協(xié)調(diào)員尹汝尚(Joseph Yun)表示。據(jù)他預(yù)測(cè)，特朗普將被迫采取他的前任們嘗試過(guò)的那種循序漸進(jìn)的措施，“因?yàn)闆](méi)有別的辦法。”