中國股市跌至熊市，金融體系面臨挑戰(zhàn)

SHANGHAI — Months of struggling with economic problems at home and bickering with President Trump over trade are starting to take their toll on China’s financial health.

上海——在國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟問題上持續(xù)數(shù)月的斗爭，以及同特朗普總統(tǒng)在貿(mào)易方面的爭吵，對中國的金融健康已經(jīng)開始造成損害。

China’s stock market has now fallen close to levels not seen since a crash shocked global investors three years ago. An elite Chinese think tank affiliated with the government warned this week that the chances of a financial panic had risen significantly, shaking markets even more.

中國股市現(xiàn)在的跌落水平是自三年前震驚全球投資者的暴跌后所未見的。中國政府下屬的一個精英智庫于本周警告，出現(xiàn)金融恐慌的可能性顯著上升，這進一步震撼了市場。

Chinese officials are trying to help factories deal with American tariffs by weakening the value of the country’s currency. That makes Chinese goods more competitive abroad, but it also gives investors inside and outside China a reason to take their money out of the country. And it offers Mr. Trump an opportunity to criticize Beijing — in the past, he has railed against the country for weakening its currency.

中國官員正試圖通過令人民幣貶值來幫助工廠應對美國關(guān)稅。這會令中國產(chǎn)品在海外具有更強的競爭力，但同時也會讓中國內(nèi)外的投資者有理由將資金帶出中國。它還為特朗普提供了一個批評北京的機會——過去，他曾指責中國故意令人民幣貶值。

The chances of a financial collapse that could shake the world are slim. The Chinese government has vast sums of money it can tap in the event of a crisis. And there are steep financial barriers to keep money from fleeing the country. While investors have ways around the barriers, they limit the possibility that such a flight could bring one of the world’s most important growth engines to a halt.

目前尚不太可能發(fā)生震撼整個世界的金融崩潰。中國政府擁有大量資金在應對危機時動用。中國還有極高的金融壁壘，以防止資金逃離該國。雖然投資者有辦法繞過障礙，但它們限制了資金逃離導致這個全球最重要的經(jīng)濟增長引擎停滯的可能性。

Nevertheless, China faces some increasingly serious economic challenges. It is trying to tackle its considerable debt problems without starving its economy of the money that keeps growth chugging along. The president’s tariffs so far have been quite small in the grand scheme of things, but they add to China’s troubles. The next wave of tariffs, set at 25 percent, threatens to cover at least a tenth of China’s exports to the United States, and more could follow.

不管怎樣，中國面臨著日益嚴峻的經(jīng)濟挑戰(zhàn)。它正在努力解決嚴重的債務(wù)問題，同時努力讓經(jīng)濟擁有足夠維持增長的資金。迄今為止，特朗普總統(tǒng)的關(guān)稅在這個宏偉計劃中只占很小一部分，但它們增加了中國的麻煩。下一波關(guān)稅定為25%，威脅至少占中國對美國出口的十分之一，其后可能還會覆蓋更多。

China’s stock markets reflect the uncertainty. The Chinese stock market as of this week is down more than 20 percent from its January peak, making it a bear market. The country’s main stock index lost nearly 1 percent on Thursday.

中國股市反映了這種不確定性。截至本周，中國股市從1月的高點下跌了逾20%，成為熊市。該國主要股指周四下跌近1%。

“You don’t know what Trump is going to do next,” said Hong Hao, the chief market strategist in the international unit of the Bank of Communications, one of China’s biggest banks. “Normally at this level, there should be a technical rebound.”

“你不知道特朗普接下來要做什么，”中國最大的銀行之一交通銀行國際部門首席市場策略師洪灝說。“通常在這個水平上，應該會有技術(shù)性的反彈。”

China’s moves with its currency reflect its difficult balancing act. The Chinese central bank has guided the currency steadily lower against the dollar, particularly in the past two weeks, as the likelihood of further American tariffs on Chinese goods has increased. The currency is down more than 5 percent from its peak in February.

中國的貨幣措施反映了其艱難的平衡舉措。由于美國對中國商品進一步征收關(guān)稅的可能性有所增加，中國央行開始引導人民幣對美元穩(wěn)步下跌，尤其是在過去兩周內(nèi)。自2月到達峰值以來，人民幣跌幅超過5%。

One indication of investor sentiment about China is the small amount of China’s currency that is traded outside its borders. China keeps the value of its currency in an iron grip, but investors in places like Hong Kong can trade it more freely.

在中國境外交易的少量中國貨幣是一個跡象，從中可以看出投資者對中國的感覺。中國嚴格控制人民幣價值，但香港等地的投資者可以更自由地交易。

The value of the renminbi has fallen somewhat faster lately in the less-regulated Hong Kong market than in Shanghai trading. A widening gap between the two markets has long been a sign that investors are worried about the currency.

最近，在監(jiān)管較少的香港市場，人民幣貶值的速度比在上海交易所要快。兩個市場之間日益擴大的差距長期以來一直是投資者對人民幣感到擔心的信號。

China faces still more obstacles. The United States Federal Reserve has begun raising short-term interest rates. That increases the cost of borrowing money for Americans and, given the vast influence of the American economy, for the rest of the world. Such rate increases have caused unpleasant economic surprises worldwide in the past, which could hurt China if growth slows in the markets where it sells its goods.

中國還面臨更多障礙。美聯(lián)儲(The United States Federal Reserve)已開始提高短期利率。這增加了美國人借貸的成本，鑒于美國經(jīng)濟的巨大影響力，也增加了世界其他地區(qū)的借貸成本。此類利率上漲在過去曾經(jīng)造成全球范圍內(nèi)的惡性經(jīng)濟意外，如果中國銷售市場的增長放緩，可能也會令其受到傷害。

As if investors did not already have enough to worry about in China, a deeply pessimistic internal government analysis has widely circulated on social media this week. The analysis was written by Li Yang, the chairman of the National Institution of Finance and Development, a Beijing-based research group, and by three other economists.

好像生怕投資者對中國的擔憂還不夠多，本周，一個非常悲觀的政府內(nèi)部分析在社交媒體上廣為傳播。該分析報告由位于北京的研究機構(gòu)國家金融與發(fā)展實驗室理事長李揚和其他三位經(jīng)濟學家撰寫。

A person who picked up the phone at the think tank said that the document was genuine and that its release had not been intended.

一位代表該智庫接聽電話的人士表示，這份報告是真的，而且它的公開是個意外。

The document said that with “the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes and the long-term and highly uncertain trade conflicts between China and the United States, we believe that in China there is currently a high probability of financial panic.”

該文件稱，“加之美聯(lián)儲加息以及中美貿(mào)易沖突呈現(xiàn)高度不確定性，我們認為目前中國就有可能出現(xiàn)金融恐慌。”

Other economists cautioned that the analysis should not necessarily be treated as representing a consensus view within the Chinese government.

其他經(jīng)濟學家告誡說，該分析不應該被視為代表中國政府的共識。

Mr. Li has a reputation as being more bearish during financial crises than other Chinese government economists. He has also used periods of financial stress in China to oppose economic reformers who seek the opening up of the country’s financial system to greater competition and more international flows of money, Mr. Hong said.

與中國政府其他的經(jīng)濟學家相比，李揚以在金融危機期間對市場持更為悲觀的態(tài)度而著稱。洪灝說，他還曾利用中國的金融緊張時期，反對那些謀求開放國家金融體系、加大競爭、加大資金國際流動的經(jīng)濟改革者。

The document leaked this week said that the way to prevent a financial panic was to create a separate stabilization fund to prop up the currency, rather than selling dollars and shrinking the money supply. Such a move could help insulate China’s economy, because reducing the money supply makes it harder for families and businesses to borrow for purchases and investments, from buying an apartment to building a factory.

本周泄露的這份報告稱，防止金融恐慌的方式是創(chuàng)建一個獨立的穩(wěn)定基金來支撐人民幣，而不是出售美元和減少貨幣供應。此舉可能有助于中國經(jīng)濟免受沖擊，因為減少貨幣供應量會使得家庭和企業(yè)難以貸款購買和投資，從買房到建廠莫不如此。

By contrast, many economic reformers say that China would benefit from more openness. The closed Chinese financial system tends to steer money to state-owned enterprises instead of smaller and more entrepreneurial private sector businesses.

相反，許多經(jīng)濟改革者表示中國會從更多開放中受益。封閉的中國金融體系傾向于將資金引向國有企業(yè)，而不是規(guī)模更小、更具創(chuàng)業(yè)精神的私營企業(yè)。

Predictions by the report’s authors aren’t gospel, said Qian Qimin, the director of wealth management research at Shenwan Securities, a Shanghai brokerage.

上海的證券交易所申銀萬國證券市場研究部主管錢啟敏表示，報告作者的預測并非金科玉律。

“They consider problems from a theoretical perspective and they look forward and alert government to the worst consequences, which is understandable,” he said.

“他們主要是從理論角度考慮，有一些前瞻性，看得嚴重一些做出了預警，是可以理解的，”他說。