中美月底重啟貿(mào)易談判，人民幣匯率成焦點(diǎn)

WASHINGTON — The United States and China will return to the negotiating table late this month in an attempt to ease months of tensions that have been building since trade talks broke down this year and both countries began imposing escalating rounds of tariffs on each other.

華盛頓——美國(guó)和中國(guó)將在本月底重返談判桌，爭(zhēng)取緩解自今年貿(mào)易談判破裂以來(lái)持續(xù)數(shù)月的緊張關(guān)系，兩國(guó)已經(jīng)對(duì)彼此加征了幾個(gè)輪次的關(guān)稅。

China said on Thursday that it would send a delegation led by Wang Shouwen, its vice minister of commerce, to Washington to meet with a group of officials led by David Malpass, the Treasury Department’s under secretary for international affairs. Although Trump administration officials have repeatedly said the ball is now in China’s court to revive the faltering discussions, the Chinese government said the trip was being made at the invitation of the United States.

中方周四表示，將派出由商務(wù)部副部長(zhǎng)王受文率領(lǐng)的代表團(tuán)前往華盛頓，與美國(guó)財(cái)政部負(fù)責(zé)國(guó)際事務(wù)的副部長(zhǎng)戴維·馬爾帕斯(David Malpass)帶領(lǐng)的一批官員會(huì)面。盡管特朗普政府的官員多次表示，這場(chǎng)一波三折的談判能不能重啟得看中國(guó)，但中國(guó)政府表示，此次訪問(wèn)是應(yīng)美方邀請(qǐng)進(jìn)行的。

The talks come as the trade relationship between the two countries faces further deterioration. The Trump administration is preparing far more expansive tariff measures, including levies on another $16 billion worth of Chinese products that are expected to go into effect next Thursday. The administration is also scheduled to hold six days of hearings over the next two weeks to allow up to 370 witnesses to weigh in on plans for tariffs on a further $200 billion worth of Chinese products, a spokeswoman for the United States trade representative said.

此番會(huì)談?wù)惦p方貿(mào)易關(guān)系面臨進(jìn)一步惡化之際。特朗普政府準(zhǔn)備了覆蓋面更大的關(guān)稅措施，包括對(duì)另外一批價(jià)值160億美元的中國(guó)商品征收關(guān)稅，預(yù)計(jì)該措施將于下周四生效。美國(guó)貿(mào)易代表發(fā)言人說(shuō)，特朗普政府還計(jì)劃在未來(lái)兩周舉行為期六天的聽(tīng)證會(huì)，將有多達(dá)370名證人現(xiàn)身，對(duì)另外價(jià)值2000億美元的中國(guó)商品關(guān)稅計(jì)劃發(fā)表意見(jiàn)。

If all of those tariffs go into effect, the United States would be taxing roughly half of the goods it imports from China each year, raising prices for a broad swath of manufacturers, retailers and other industries.

如果這些關(guān)稅全部生效，美國(guó)每年將對(duì)從中國(guó)進(jìn)口的一半商品征稅，這會(huì)導(dǎo)致大量的制造商、零售商和其他行業(yè)提高價(jià)格。

The meeting between midlevel officials is a departure from the formal rounds of talks between top economic teams from the United States and China that took place during the early days of the Trump administration and the trade meetings led by Steven Mnuchin, the Treasury secretary, and Liu He, China’s vice premier in charge of economic policy, this spring.

這次中層官員之間的會(huì)晤不同于特朗普政府初期美中高級(jí)經(jīng)濟(jì)團(tuán)隊(duì)之間的正式會(huì)談，以及由財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)史蒂芬·馬努欽(Steven Mnuchin)和負(fù)責(zé)經(jīng)濟(jì)政策的中國(guó)副總理在今年春天舉行的貿(mào)易會(huì)談。

Larry Kudlow, the director of the White House’s National Economic Council, sought to lower expectations on Thursday and insisted that President Trump had no intention of backing down on his demands.

周四，白宮國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)委員會(huì)(National Economic Council)主任拉里·庫(kù)德洛(Larry Kudlow)試圖降低人們的期望值，堅(jiān)稱特朗普總統(tǒng)無(wú)意放棄自己的要求。

“Any time you’re talking, that’s better than not talking,” Mr. Kudlow said in an interview with CNBC.

庫(kù)德洛在接受CNBC采訪時(shí)說(shuō)：“無(wú)論何時(shí)，談總比不談好。”

Mr. Kudlow said that the demands of the United States have not changed, and that China must lower its tariff and non-tariff barriers and cease the theft of American intellectual property. 庫(kù)德洛說(shuō)，美方的要求沒(méi)有變，中國(guó)必須降低關(guān)稅和非關(guān)稅壁壘，停止竊取美國(guó)的知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)。

“The Chinese government in its totality must not underestimate President Trump’s toughness and willingness to continue this battle,” Mr. Kudlow added.

他還說(shuō)：“從整體上，中國(guó)政府可不要低估特朗普總統(tǒng)的強(qiáng)硬和繼續(xù)這場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)斗的意愿。”

Beyond tariffs, currency concerns have re-emerged as an issue in the Trump administration, and they are expected to come up during this round of talks.

除了關(guān)稅問(wèn)題，匯率問(wèn)題已重新引起特朗普政府的關(guān)注，預(yù)計(jì)它們都是本輪談判的內(nèi)容。

The value of China’s currency, the renminbi, has fallen roughly 10 percent against the dollar since the beginning of April, a change that makes Chinese products cheaper for foreigners to purchase and helps offset the impact of the Trump administration’s tariffs.

自4月初以來(lái)，人民幣兌美元的匯率已下跌約10%，對(duì)外國(guó)人來(lái)說(shuō)，這一變化令中國(guó)制造的商品變得更便宜了，從而有助于抵消特朗普政府增收關(guān)稅所帶來(lái)的影響。

Economists say the currency has weakened because of market forces and the strengthening of the dollar, as well as the influence of the Chinese government, which sets a baseline for the currency and then allows its value to fluctuate within a narrow band.

經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家說(shuō)，由于市場(chǎng)力量、美元走強(qiáng)以及中國(guó)政府的影響，人民幣已經(jīng)走弱。中國(guó)政府為人民幣設(shè)定了一個(gè)基準(zhǔn)線，允許它在一個(gè)狹窄的范圍內(nèi)波動(dòng)。

That drop in value will put pressure on the Treasury Department in advance of an October report in which Mr. Mnuchin is charged with deciding whether to label countries currency manipulators. So far, the Trump administration has declined to give China the label, saying that while China manipulated its currency in the past, that problem had dissipated for now.

這一下降將預(yù)先給財(cái)政部10月份的報(bào)告施加壓力，在該報(bào)告中，馬努欽將決定是否把某些國(guó)家標(biāo)記為貨幣操縱者。到目前為止，特朗普政府并未給中國(guó)貼上這個(gè)標(biāo)簽，并表示雖然中國(guó)過(guò)去操縱過(guò)匯率，但這個(gè)問(wèn)題目前已經(jīng)不存在了。

But in the last month, China’s currency has once again become a target for Mr. Trump.

但在上個(gè)月，中國(guó)貨幣再次成為特朗普的目標(biāo)。

“China, the European Union and others have been manipulating their currencies and interest rates lower, while the U.S. is raising rates while the dollars gets stronger and stronger with each passing day — taking away our big competitive edge,” Mr. Trump tweeted on July 20. “As usual, not a level playing field …”

“中國(guó)、歐盟和其他國(guó)家一直在操縱貨幣和利率走低，在美元日益堅(jiān)挺和強(qiáng)勢(shì)的時(shí)候，美國(guó)正在加息——這消除了我們的巨大競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)，”特朗普在7月20日的一條推文中寫道。“像往常一樣，這不是公平的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)環(huán)境……”。

In its coming talks, the Treasury Department will seek to pressure the Chinese to lift the value of their currency, a person briefed on the plans said. But additional American tariff measures going into effect in coming months could further push down the value of the renminbi against the dollar, complicating those efforts.

一位知情人士表示，在即將舉行的會(huì)談中，美國(guó)財(cái)政部將向中國(guó)施加壓力，要求它提升人民幣價(jià)值。但未來(lái)幾個(gè)月實(shí)施的其他美國(guó)關(guān)稅措施可能會(huì)進(jìn)一步壓低人民幣兌美元的匯率，加劇了這些行動(dòng)的困難。

The Trump administration is engaged in trade clashes on multiple fronts, as American negotiators seek to wrap up talks over the North American Free Trade Agreement with Canada and Mexico and hold additional talks with European and Japanese counterparts in coming months.

特朗普政府正在多個(gè)陣線卷入貿(mào)易沖突，目前，美國(guó)談判代表正尋求與加拿大和墨西哥就北美自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定(North American Free Trade Agreement)進(jìn)行談判，并在未來(lái)幾個(gè)月與歐洲和日本同行舉行更多會(huì)談。

In the meantime, talks with China have moved slowly. The White House has seemed unimpressed by China’s offers to purchase tens of billions of dollars’ worth of additional American products, which Trump administration trade officials say fall short of the substantial changes they want China to make to its partly state-run economy.

與此同時(shí)，與中國(guó)的談判進(jìn)展緩慢。白宮對(duì)中國(guó)提出的額外購(gòu)買數(shù)百億美元美國(guó)產(chǎn)品的提議似乎并不感興趣，特朗普政府官員表示，這些產(chǎn)品不能滿足的要求，即中國(guó)對(duì)其部分由國(guó)家所有的經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)行充分的改革。

Trade experts were skeptical on Thursday that the coming talks would prove fruitful. Chinese officials have expressed frustration that the United States has not empowered a point person in the trade talks who can speak on behalf of Mr. Trump. In May, after Mr. Mnuchin announced that the trade war was “on hold,” the president scrapped the agreement that the countries were working toward and called for more tariffs.

周四，貿(mào)易專家對(duì)即將舉行的會(huì)談是否能取得成果持懷疑態(tài)度。對(duì)于美國(guó)沒(méi)有在貿(mào)易談判中授權(quán)一位能代表特朗普發(fā)言的關(guān)鍵人物，中方表達(dá)了不滿。5月，在馬努欽宣布貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)“暫停”之后，總統(tǒng)取消了兩國(guó)正在努力爭(zhēng)取達(dá)成的協(xié)議，并且要求征收更多關(guān)稅。

Mr. Malpass is even less empowered than Mr. Mnuchin to strike a deal, and while the Treasury Department has been the agency most aggressively pushing for a trade truce, the Office of the United States Trade Representative, led by Robert E. Lighthizer, is formally charged with overseeing the lists of Chinese goods facing tariffs.

在達(dá)成協(xié)議方面，馬爾帕斯甚至比馬努欽更沒(méi)有權(quán)力，雖然財(cái)政部一直是最積極推動(dòng)貿(mào)易停戰(zhàn)的機(jī)構(gòu)，但即將征收關(guān)稅的中國(guó)商品清單編制工作，是由羅伯特·E·萊特希澤(Robert E. Lighthizer)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的美國(guó)貿(mào)易代表辦公室(Office of the United States Trade Representative)正式負(fù)責(zé)的。

At the Group of 20 summit meeting of finance ministers in Argentina last month, Mr. Mnuchin said that he had engaged only in “chitchat” with his Chinese counterparts and that the ball was in China’s court to initiate a breakthrough.

馬努欽說(shuō)，上個(gè)月在阿根廷舉行的20國(guó)集團(tuán)財(cái)長(zhǎng)會(huì)議上，他只和中國(guó)同行做了“閑談”，并且取得突破的關(guān)鍵在于中國(guó)。

“This looks like it will be a waste of time for the two govts,” Scott Kennedy, the director of the Project on Chinese Business and Political Economy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said on Twitter. “Who thinks US Treasury Dept is empowered to make THE deal to end the trade war?”

“這對(duì)兩國(guó)政府來(lái)說(shuō)似乎是浪費(fèi)時(shí)間，”國(guó)際戰(zhàn)略研究中心(Center for Strategic and International Studies)中國(guó)商業(yè)與政治經(jīng)濟(jì)項(xiàng)目主任甘思德(Scott Kennedy)在推特上說(shuō)。“誰(shuí)會(huì)認(rèn)為美國(guó)財(cái)政部有權(quán)達(dá)成那項(xiàng)能夠結(jié)束貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)的交易?”