一年多以來(lái),中國(guó)政府一直將一種進(jìn)化迅速的禽流感病毒樣本扣下,不交給美國(guó)——據(jù)聯(lián)邦衛(wèi)生官員表示,美國(guó)需要該樣本來(lái)研發(fā)疫苗和治療方法。
Despite persistent requests from government officials and research institutions, China has not provided samples of the dangerous virus, a type of bird flu called H7N9. In the past, such exchanges have been mostly routine under rules established by the World Health Organization.
盡管政府官員和研究機(jī)構(gòu)不斷提出要求,但中國(guó)一直沒(méi)有提供這種名為H7N9的禽流感危險(xiǎn)病毒樣本。在過(guò)去,這樣的交流一直都按照世界衛(wèi)生組織的規(guī)定定期進(jìn)行。
Now, as the United States and China spar over trade, some scientists worry that the vital exchange of medical supplies and information could slow, hampering preparedness for the next biological threat.
如今,隨著美中兩國(guó)就貿(mào)易爭(zhēng)端不斷,一些科學(xué)家擔(dān)憂此類重要的醫(yī)療用品及信息交流可能放慢,阻礙對(duì)下一次生物威脅的準(zhǔn)備。
The scenario is “unlike shortages in aluminum and soybeans,” said Dr. Michael Callahan, an infectious disease specialist at Harvard Medical School.
這種情況“不同于鋁和大豆短缺”,哈佛醫(yī)學(xué)院傳染病專家邁克爾·卡拉漢(Michael Callahan)博士表示。
“Jeopardizing U.S. access to foreign pathogens and therapies to counter them undermines our nation’s ability to protect against infections which can spread globally within days.”
“妨礙美國(guó)獲得外國(guó)病原體,研究出對(duì)抗病毒的治療方法,會(huì)破壞我國(guó)保護(hù)自己不受那些能在數(shù)天內(nèi)迅速傳播全球的感染的能力。”
Experts concur that the world’s next global pandemic will likely come from a repeat offender: the flu. The H7N9 virus is one candidate.
專家一致認(rèn)為,世界上下一次全球流行性疾病很可能會(huì)源自一個(gè)“慣犯”:流感。H7N9病毒是可能性之一。
Since taking root in China in 2013, the virus has spread through poultry farms, evolving into a highly pathogenic strain that can infect humans. It has killed 40 percent of its victims.
自2013年在中國(guó)扎根后,這種病毒通過(guò)家禽飼養(yǎng)場(chǎng)進(jìn)行傳播,進(jìn)化成了一種高度致病菌株,能傳染人類。這種病毒已經(jīng)導(dǎo)致40%被感染者死亡。
If this strain were to become highly contagious among humans, seasonal flu vaccines would provide little to no protection. Americans have virtually no immunity.
如果這種菌株在人群中變得高度易傳染,季節(jié)性流感疫苗將提供不了多少保護(hù)作用。美國(guó)人基本上對(duì)此毫無(wú)免疫力。
“Pandemic influenza spreads faster than anything else,” said Rick A. Bright, the director of Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, an agency within the Department of Health and Human Services that oversees vaccine development. “There’s nothing to hold it back or slow it down. Every minute counts.”
“大流行性流感比其他任何疾病傳播得都要快,”美國(guó)衛(wèi)生與公眾服務(wù)部(Department of Health and Human Services)下屬機(jī)構(gòu)、監(jiān)管疫苗研發(fā)的生物醫(yī)學(xué)高級(jí)研究和發(fā)展局(Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority)局長(zhǎng)里克·A·布萊特(Rick A. Bright)說(shuō)。“不存在要阻止或放慢進(jìn)度的理由。每一分鐘都很重要。”
Under an agreement established by the World Health Organization, participating countries must transfer influenza samples with pandemic potential to designated research centers “in a timely manner.”
根據(jù)世界衛(wèi)生組織的一項(xiàng)協(xié)議,成員國(guó)必須“及時(shí)”將存在流行病可能的流感樣本轉(zhuǎn)移至指定研究中心。
That process — involving paperwork, approval through several agencies and a licensed carrier — normally takes several months, according to Dr. Larry Kerr, the director of pandemics and emerging threats at the Department of Health and Human Services.
根據(jù)拉里·科爾(Larry Kerr)博士說(shuō),這一過(guò)程——牽涉文件、通過(guò)多個(gè)機(jī)構(gòu)的批準(zhǔn)以及一個(gè)持有執(zhí)照的運(yùn)送方——通常需要幾個(gè)月??茽柌┦渴切l(wèi)生與公眾服務(wù)部流行病及新興威脅主任。
But more than one year after a devastating wave of H7N9 infections in Asia — 766 cases were reported, almost all in China — the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is still waiting for several viral samples, the National Security Council and the W.H.O. confirmed.
但在亞洲出現(xiàn)一波致命H7N9感染一年多的時(shí)間里——上報(bào)766例,幾乎都是在中國(guó)——美國(guó)疾病控制和預(yù)防中心(Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)仍在等待多份病毒樣本,此事得到了國(guó)家安全委員會(huì)(National Security Council)和世衛(wèi)組織的確認(rèn)。
Scientists at the Department of Agriculture have had such difficulty obtaining flu samples from China that they have stopped requesting them altogether, according to a government official who spoke anonymously because he was not authorized to discuss the matter.
據(jù)一名政府官員表示,農(nóng)業(yè)部科學(xué)家在從中國(guó)獲取流感樣本時(shí)也遇到過(guò)此類困難,因此他們不再要求中國(guó)提供了。由于沒(méi)有獲得討論此事的授權(quán),這名官員要求匿名。
At least four research institutions have relied upon a small group of H7N9 samples from cases in Taiwan and Hong Kong. (All four asked not to be identified for fear of further straining ties.)
至少有四家研究機(jī)構(gòu)依賴臺(tái)灣和香港的一小批H7N9樣本。(由于擔(dān)心關(guān)系進(jìn)一步緊張,這四個(gè)機(jī)構(gòu)都要求不透露名字。)
The Chinese embassy in Washington did not respond to multiple requests for comment. The Chinese Center For Disease Control and Prevention also did not reply to inquiries regarding the transfer.
中國(guó)駐華盛頓大使館沒(méi)有回復(fù)多次置評(píng)請(qǐng)求。中國(guó)疾病預(yù)防控制中心也沒(méi)有回復(fù)有關(guān)轉(zhuǎn)移的詢問(wèn)。
When the H7N9 virus first appeared in China, researchers say the Chinese government at first provided timely information. But communication has gradually worsened.
當(dāng)H7N9病毒首次出現(xiàn)在中國(guó)時(shí),研究人員說(shuō),中國(guó)政府起初提供了及時(shí)的信息。但溝通逐漸惡化。
Yet a sudden spike in infections during the 2016-2017 outbreak wave demands intense research, said scientists aiming to understand the virus’ evolution.
然而,2016-2017年病毒爆發(fā)期間,感染突然激增,關(guān)注該病毒進(jìn)化的科學(xué)家稱,這需要進(jìn)行密集研究。
Recent trade tensions could worsen the problem.
最近的貿(mào)易緊張局勢(shì)可能會(huì)令這一問(wèn)題惡化。
The Office of the United States Trade Representative in April released a proposed list of products to be targeted for tariffs — including pharmaceutical products such as vaccines, medicines and medical devices.
美國(guó)貿(mào)易代表辦公室于4月發(fā)布了一份擬議的關(guān)稅產(chǎn)品清單,其中包括疫苗、藥品和醫(yī)療器械等醫(yī)藥產(chǎn)品。
So far, none of those medical products have landed on the final tariff lists. But lower-level trade negotiations with China concluded on Thursday with few signs of progress, increasing the likelihood of additional tariffs.
到目前為止,這些醫(yī)療產(chǎn)品沒(méi)有進(jìn)入最終的關(guān)稅清單。但與中國(guó)的低級(jí)別貿(mào)易于談判周四結(jié)束,幾乎沒(méi)有進(jìn)展的跡象,這增加了額外關(guān)稅的可能性。
The United States relies on China not only for H7N9 influenza samples but for medical supplies, such as plastic drip mechanisms for intravenous saline, as well as ingredients for certain oncology and anesthesia drugs. Some of these are delivered through a just-in-time production model; there are no stockpiles, which could prove dangerous if the supply was disrupted, health officials said.
美國(guó)不僅依賴中國(guó)的H7N9流感樣本,還依賴中國(guó)的醫(yī)療用品,如靜脈注射生理鹽水的塑料滴注裝置,以及某些腫瘤和麻醉藥物的成分。其中一些是通過(guò)即時(shí)制生產(chǎn)模式提供的;衛(wèi)生官員說(shuō),在沒(méi)有庫(kù)存儲(chǔ)備的情況下,如果供應(yīng)中斷,可能造成危險(xiǎn)。
Scientists believe top commerce officials in both governments view the viral samples much like any other laboratory product, and may be unfamiliar with their vital role in global security.
科學(xué)家認(rèn)為,兩國(guó)政府的頂級(jí)商務(wù)官員都把病毒樣本看得和其他實(shí)驗(yàn)室產(chǎn)品一樣,而且可能不熟悉它們?cè)谌虬踩械闹匾饔谩?/p>
“Countries don’t own their viral samples any more than they own the birds in their skies,” said Andrew C. Weber, who oversaw biological defense programs at the Pentagon during the Obama administration.
“病毒樣本不歸各國(guó)所擁有,就像空中的鳥(niǎo)類不歸各國(guó)所有一樣,”奧巴馬政府期間負(fù)責(zé)監(jiān)督五角大樓生物防御項(xiàng)目的安德魯·C·韋伯(Andrew C. Weber)說(shuō)。
“Given that this flu virus is a potential threat to humanity, not sharing it immediately with the global network of W.H.O. laboratories like C.D.C. is scandalous. Many could die needlessly if China denies international access to samples.”
“鑒于這種流感病毒是對(duì)人類的潛在威脅,不立即將它們與世界衛(wèi)生組織全球?qū)嶒?yàn)室網(wǎng)絡(luò)分享,比如C.D.C.,是可恥的。如果中國(guó)拒絕國(guó)際上獲取這些樣品,許多人可能會(huì)不必要地死去。”
For over a decade, epidemiological data and samples have been used as trade war pawns.
十多年來(lái),流行病學(xué)數(shù)據(jù)和樣本已被用作貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)中的武器。
China hid the 2002 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, for four months and then kept the findings of its research private. Some provinces withheld information about cases even from the central government in Beijing.
2002年,中國(guó)將其嚴(yán)重急性呼吸系統(tǒng)綜合征(SARS)的爆發(fā)隱藏了四個(gè)月,然后將研究結(jié)果保密。一些省份甚至對(duì)北京中央政府隱瞞相關(guān)病例的信息。
In 2005, Chinese authorities insisted an H5N1 influenza outbreak was contained, contradicting University of Hong Kong scientists who offered evidence that it was expanding. Those authorities hesitated to share viral samples from infected wild birds with the international community, concealing the scope to avoid a hit to their vast poultry industry.
2005年,中國(guó)當(dāng)局堅(jiān)稱H5N1流感疫情已經(jīng)得到了控制,這與香港大學(xué)科學(xué)家的結(jié)論相矛盾,后者提供的證據(jù)表明它正在擴(kuò)大。中國(guó)官方對(duì)同國(guó)際社會(huì)分享感染野生鳥(niǎo)類病毒樣本猶豫不決,隱瞞病毒傳播范圍,以避免對(duì)其龐大的家禽業(yè)造成打擊。
Indonesia followed suit, refusing in 2007 to share specimens of H5N1 with the United States and United Kingdom, arguing that the countries would use the samples to develop a vaccine that Indonesians could not afford.
印度尼西亞也效仿中國(guó),于2007年拒絕與美國(guó)和英國(guó)分享H5N1樣本,并聲稱這些國(guó)家將使用這些樣本來(lái)開(kāi)發(fā)一種印尼人無(wú)法負(fù)擔(dān)的疫苗。
Those episodes led to the 2011 development of the W.H.O.’s Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Framework, which aims to promote sample exchanges as well as developing countries’ access to vaccines.
這些事件促成了2011年W.H.O.大流行性流感防范框架的發(fā)展,該框架旨在促進(jìn)樣本交換,以及幫助發(fā)展中國(guó)家獲得疫苗。
But for countries like China, bearing the burden of a novel virus is paradoxical. Outbreaks are expensive — the wave of H7N9 infections in 2013 alone cost China more than $6 billion, according to the United Nations — but they can provide a head-start in developing valuable treatments.
但對(duì)于像中國(guó)這樣的國(guó)家來(lái)說(shuō),承擔(dān)新型病毒的負(fù)擔(dān)是矛盾的。流感爆發(fā)的代價(jià)很高——根據(jù)聯(lián)合國(guó)的數(shù)據(jù),僅2013年的H7N9感染就給中國(guó)造成了超過(guò)60億美元的損失——但它們可以為開(kāi)發(fā)有價(jià)值的治療提供先機(jī)。
“In a sense, China has made lemonade from lemons — converting the problem of global infectious disease threats into lifesaving and valuable commodities,” Dr. Callahan said. “從某種意義上說(shuō),中國(guó)已經(jīng)用檸檬做出了檸檬水——將全球傳染病威脅問(wèn)題轉(zhuǎn)化為救命和有價(jià)值的商品,”卡拉漢說(shuō)。
And now, as the H7N9 virus evolves, United States authorities worry that the Chinese have obfuscated the scale and features of this outbreak.
現(xiàn)在,隨著H7N9病毒的演變,美國(guó)當(dāng)局擔(dān)心中國(guó)人并不清楚這次疫情的規(guī)模和特征。
The Chinese government has refused to share clinical data from infected patients, according to scientists, and claims to have all but eradicated H7N9 through a single poultry vaccination campaign.
據(jù)科學(xué)家稱,中國(guó)政府拒絕分享受感染患者的臨床數(shù)據(jù),并聲稱通過(guò)單一家禽疫苗接種活動(dòng)幾乎完全消滅了H7N9。
“Influenza is going to do what it does best, which is mutate,” Dr. Kerr said.
“流感會(huì)做它最擅長(zhǎng)的事情——變異,”克爾博士說(shuō)。