中國消費者信心下滑，給全球經(jīng)濟蒙上陰影

HONG KONG — For years, no matter what was happening elsewhere, global companies bet billions upon billions of dollars that China’s consumers would keep spending money.

香港——多年來，無論其它地方發(fā)生了什么，全世界的公司都在把成千上萬億美元押在中國消費者會繼續(xù)花錢上。

Now, just when the world economy could use their financial firepower, they are holding back, worried about the country’s slowing growth, a trade war with the United States and rising amounts of personal debt.

如今，就在世界經(jīng)濟急需他們的財力支援時，他們卻退縮了。他們擔心中國增長放緩，擔心和美國的貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)，以及日益增加的個人債務(wù)。

Zhao Zheng, 26, is among the cost-conscious consumers.

26歲的趙正就屬于價格敏感型消費者。

On Thursday, Mr. Zhao, a real estate agent, was browsing smartphones made by Xiaomi, a Chinese rival to Apple that prices its handsets at a fraction of what the American tech giant charges for iPhones. He said the success in China of Xiaomi and Miniso, a chain of low-cost variety stores, suggested that Chinese consumers were looking to get more for their money.

周四，身為房產(chǎn)經(jīng)紀人的趙正在網(wǎng)上瀏覽小米的智能手機，這是蘋果的一個中國競爭對手，其手機售價僅為這個美國科技巨頭給iPhone定價的一小部分。他說小米和名創(chuàng)優(yōu)品——一個平價連鎖雜貨店——在中國的成功表明，中國消費者注重的是實惠。

“The economy,” Mr. Zhao said, “is definitely very bad.”

“經(jīng)濟肯定很差很差，”趙說。

A significant pullback could have a big impact on a world looking for engines of growth, on companies that counted on China’s continuing expansion and on global investors who have long viewed Chinese consumers as a steady source of profits.

對于尋找增長引擎的世界，指望中國持續(xù)擴張的企業(yè)，以及長期以來視中國的消費者為穩(wěn)定利潤來源的全球投資者而言，一次大幅回調(diào)會帶來巨大影響。

Stock markets stumbled again on Thursday, in part over concerns that American companies and manufacturers are starting to feel the effects from the slowdown in China and the trade war. The S&P 500 sank 2.5 percent, while shares of Apple dropped nearly 10 percent after the company unexpectedly slashed its financial forecast, citing disappointing iPhones sales in the country.

周四，股市再度震蕩，部分是由于擔心美國的企業(yè)和制造商開始感受到中國經(jīng)濟下滑以及貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)的影響。標準普爾500指數(shù)下滑2.5%，而在蘋果以iPhone在中國銷售不景氣為由，意外下調(diào)了財務(wù)預(yù)期之后，公司股價下跌了近10%。

The rise of the Chinese consumer is not over yet, and Apple’s disappointing numbers stem in part from the company’s own decisions. But the weakness at Apple followed reams of other data — declining car sales, faltering retail sales, a slumping property market, a tougher job market — that signal Chinese consumers may be losing their once unshakable confidence.

中國消費者的崛起還沒結(jié)束，蘋果不景氣的數(shù)字部分也是源于該公司自身的決定。但蘋果的疲弱表現(xiàn)還伴隨著大量其他數(shù)據(jù)——汽車銷量下降、零售業(yè)步履蹣跚、房產(chǎn)市場暴跌、就業(yè)市場也更困難了。這表明中國的消費者可能正在失去他們曾經(jīng)不可撼動的信心。

The sagging confidence could undermine China’s efforts to redirect its economy and spur growth.

信心低迷可能會顛覆中國重新調(diào)整經(jīng)濟和刺激增長的努力。

The Chinese government hopes consumers will become a greater source of economic growth as the country’s longtime reliance on government-sponsored infrastructure projects and old-line industries like steel and cement pays ever-smaller dividends. In recent years, Beijing has rolled out a huge social safety net, tax breaks and other incentives to get people to spend more of their own money on the trappings of middle-class life.

隨著中國長期依賴的政府資助基建項目和鋼鐵水泥等老行業(yè)紅利越來越少，中國政府希望消費者可以成為更大的經(jīng)濟增長來源。近幾年來，中國推出了一張巨大的社會保障網(wǎng)、稅收減免及其它激勵措施，促使人們將自己的錢更多地用那些中產(chǎn)生活裝飾物上。

The spending slowdown in China could be a worrying sign for many of America’s biggest companies, too, at a time when their profits and stock prices are under pressure.

對許多美國最大的公司而言，中國消費支出的放緩也可能會是個令人擔憂的跡象，眼下它們的利潤和股價正承受著壓力。

Greater China — a region that includes mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan — is Apple’s third-largest market after the United States and Europe, accounting for $52 billion in annual sales in the company’s most recent fiscal year. General Motors, through local joint ventures, sells more cars in China than it does in the United States. Eight percent of Procter & Gamble’s total sales in 2017 came from Greater China.

大中華區(qū)——包括中國大陸、香港和臺灣在內(nèi)的地區(qū)——是蘋果的第三大市場，僅次于美國和歐洲，最近一個財年給該公司帶來了520億美元的年銷售額。通用汽車通過當?shù)睾腺Y企業(yè)在中國售出了比美國更多的汽車。強生公司2017年銷售額的8%來自大中華區(qū)。

Other companies are also feeling the pinch. China’s auto market, the biggest in the world, saw sales fall during the first 11 months of last year. Sales of all smartphones fell by 13 percent in the third quarter of 2018.

其他公司也日益感受到壓力。作為世界第一大的中國汽車市場，去年前11個月銷售下滑。2018年第三季度，各類智能手機的銷量下降了13%。

Chinese consumers continued to spend relatively briskly during other recent slowdowns, and they could still help get the country’s economy back on track. But they have reasons to be reticent now.

在近年的其他經(jīng)濟減速中，中國的消費者持續(xù)保持了相對活躍的支出，而且能繼續(xù)幫助該國的經(jīng)濟回到正軌。但如今他們有理由謹慎對待。

By many measures, the country’s growth has slowed because of government efforts to wean the economy off a heavy reliance on borrowing as well as other policies that have shaken the confidence of the country’s entrepreneurs.

從很多方面來看，中國的增長已放緩，原因在于政府努力使經(jīng)濟脫離嚴重依賴借貸的模式，以及其它已經(jīng)撼動了該國企業(yè)家信心的政策。

“China is at a turning point in its economy,” said Andrew Collier, the founder of research firm Orient Capital Research. “They’ve basically been on a debt-fueled binge for a decade.” He added, “It’s difficult to turn the ship from industry to consumer at a time of rough waters.”

“中國的經(jīng)濟正處在轉(zhuǎn)折點上，”東方資本研究公司(Orient Capital Research)創(chuàng)始人安德魯?科利爾(Andrew Collier)說。“他們基本上在債務(wù)帶動的熱潮中停留了十年。”他補充說，“在這樣一個兇險的時期，很難將船從工業(yè)調(diào)至消費者身上。”

For many people, circumstances have changed.

但對于很多人而言，情況已經(jīng)轉(zhuǎn)變。

China has too many apartments that home buyers do not want, depressing a property market that is the largest source of wealth for Chinese households. The stock market lost around a quarter of its value in 2018.

中國有太多家庭購房者不想要的公寓，從而抑制了中國家庭財產(chǎn)的最大來源——房地產(chǎn)市場。2018年，股市市值縮水約四分之一。

And although they have a long way to go to catch up to Americans, Chinese households are laboring under growing amounts of debt. Unorthodox Chinese lenders like the online shadow-banking networks known as peer-to-peer lenders are stumbling, giving consumers fewer places to borrow more.

盡管要趕上美國人還有很長的路要走，但中國家庭正承受著越來越多的債務(wù)。中國那些非正統(tǒng)的借貸方步履維艱，比如被稱為p2p貸款的網(wǎng)上影子銀行網(wǎng)絡(luò)，因此消費者能借到更多錢的地方越來越少。

Declining business confidence, rising labor costs and the trade war with the United States also appear to be hurting the job market.

企業(yè)信心下降、勞動力成本上升以及同美國的貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)似乎也在損害就業(yè)市場。

China does not disclose reliable unemployment data. But a recent survey by Mr. Collier of job postings, recruitment ads, numbers of applicants on recruitment websites and interviews with corporate managers suggested labor demand had weakened significantly. Hiring demand in import and export industries has been hit especially hard, falling 53 percent in the third quarter compared with a year earlier, the survey found.

中國沒有公布可靠的失業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)。但科利爾最近對招聘帖子、招工廣告、招聘網(wǎng)站上的求職者數(shù)量，以及對企業(yè)管理者的采訪所進行的一項調(diào)查顯示，勞動力需求已經(jīng)明顯減弱。該調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn)，進出口行業(yè)的招聘需求受到的打擊尤其嚴重，第三季度與去年同期相比下降53%。

Against that backdrop, it is not surprising that many consumers are looking for ways to spend less.

在這樣的背景下，許多消費者設(shè)法減少支出也就不足為奇了。

Wang Xiaochuan, who made about $145,000 a year as a pharmaceutical sales representative in Yantai in 2015, now makes less than a third of that thanks to a tightening of regulations on the drug industry. He has cut back his spending, buying Clarks shoes instead of the more expensive Ecco brand, or Coach goods rather than Louis Vuitton.

王小川在煙臺擔任醫(yī)藥銷售代表，2015年，他的年收入約為14.5萬美元。如今，由于對醫(yī)藥行業(yè)的監(jiān)管收緊，他的年收入不到這個數(shù)字的三分之一。他削減了開支，購買其樂(Clarks)的鞋子，而不是更昂貴的愛步(Ecco);用蔻馳(Coach)的商品取代了路易威登(Louis Vuitton)。

“I’m hearing a lot more bad news about the economy than good news now,” he said.

“宏觀經(jīng)濟聽到的負面消息大于正面消息，”他說。

In a country with an aspirational culture that for decades has encouraged people to get rich, Apple has long held a special place. Having a new iPhone meant its owner had made it. Seven years ago, the release of a new iPhone set off scuffles in front of an Apple store in Beijing.

幾十年來這個國家一直盛行著鼓勵人們致富的文化，蘋果品牌因此長期占據(jù)著特殊的地位。擁有一部新iPhone意味著主人的成功。七年前，新款iPhone的發(fā)布在北京一家蘋果店門前引發(fā)了混戰(zhàn)。

But price increases have put the iPhone beyond the reach of more and more Chinese buyers. An iPhone XR starts at 6,499 yuan, or about $950, just over two and a half months’ worth of disposable income for the average Chinese person.

但價格上漲已經(jīng)讓越來越多的中國買家無法購買iPhone。iPhone XR起售價為人民幣6499元(約合950美元)，略高于普通中國人兩個半月的可支配收入。

Rumors once circulated about young people selling kidneys to buy an iPhone. Now, the online joke goes, it would cost two kidneys.

曾經(jīng)有傳言說年輕人用賣腎的錢買iPhone?，F(xiàn)在，網(wǎng)上有個笑話說，買iPhone需要兩個腎。

On the last day of 2018, William Tan, a 30-year-old university teacher in the southern city of Nanning, replaced his iPhone 7 with a phone made by Huawei, the Chinese telecommunications giant. Although the Huawei phone cost more than $700, about a month’s salary for him, it was still more than $200 cheaper than the base iPhone XR. He had used an iPhone 5, 6 and 7. But when his iPhone 7 broke down, he found he could no longer afford the latest iPhone.

2018年的最后一天，在南方城市南寧，30歲的大學教師威廉·譚(William Tan)用中國電信巨頭華為的一款手機取代了自己的iPhone 7。盡管這部華為手機售價超過700美元，約合他一個月的薪水，但是仍然比基本款的iPhone XR便宜200多美元。他使用過iPhone 5、6和7。但當他的iPhone 7壞掉時，他發(fā)現(xiàn)自己再也買不起最新款的iPhone了。

The Huawei phone, he said, works fairly smoothly and takes better photos than the iPhone.

他說，華為手機運行起來相當流暢，拍照效果也比iPhone好。

“I won’t choose Apple again at this price range,” he said.

“目前這種定價不會再選蘋果了，”他說。

Chinese consumers are by no means done with certain discretionary purchases. Spending on movie tickets and services remains strong, economists said.

當然，中國消費者沒有放棄某些可自由支配的開支。經(jīng)濟學家說，電影票和服務(wù)領(lǐng)域的支出依然強勁。

But the consumer slowdown could worsen if Beijing does not address its economic problems.

但如果北京不解決經(jīng)濟問題，消費放緩可能會加劇。

“The question is whether China can stabilize economic growth when it is facing economic headwinds,” said Wei Li, senior China economist at Standard Chartered.

“問題是，在經(jīng)濟逆風中，中國能否穩(wěn)定經(jīng)濟增長，”渣打銀行(Standard Chartered)資深中國經(jīng)濟學家李煒表示。

“If the labor market does worsen in 2019 or if financial conditions don’t improve, if the stock market remains low, all this could weigh on consumer confidence,” Mr. Li said.

“如果勞動力市場真的在2019年出現(xiàn)惡化，或者金融狀況沒有改善，又或者股市依然低迷，所有這些都可能會打擊消費者的信心，”李煒說。

Given the uncertainty, many Chinese spenders will most likely continue to scrimp.

鑒于這種不確定性，許多中國消費者很可能會繼續(xù)省吃儉用。

Wu Yan, a tech company worker who was looking at Xiaomi phones on Thursday afternoon, said he had also tried Apple and Huawei phones and had decided they were not much different from one another. What matters, he said, was the apps, and they work the same from phone to phone.

周四下午，科技公司員工午言正在選購小米手機，他說，他也試過蘋果和華為的手機，覺得它們沒有太大區(qū)別。他說，重要的是手機應(yīng)用程序，它們在不同的手機上工作起來都是一樣的。

But Mr. Wu, 40, also said many middle-class Chinese people like him had reached a stage where their work was stable, their income was secure and they no longer needed to show off their spending power. His computer at home? It’s four or five years old now, but it still works fine.

但40歲的午言也說，許多像他一樣的中國中產(chǎn)階級已經(jīng)到了工作穩(wěn)定、收入穩(wěn)定、不再需要炫耀自己消費能力的階段。至于他家里的電腦?已經(jīng)用了四五年了，但是仍然很好用。

“Now we spend just to fulfill our needs,” he said.

“現(xiàn)在我們花錢主要是為了滿足自己的需要，”他說。