近45%的人預(yù)測，接下來的一年對商業(yè)更加不利

In business, as in life, good leaders hope for the best and plan for the worst. There’s a reason that experts refer to the regular expansion and contraction of the economy as the business cycle.

商業(yè)中和生活中一樣，優(yōu)秀的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)抱最好的希望，做最壞的打算。專家們稱經(jīng)濟(jì)周期是經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)律性的擴張和收縮是有原因。

Even producers of the most recession-proof products—toiletries, beer, funeral services—need to consider how rising and falling consumer sentiment will affect their bottom line.

即使是最抗經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的產(chǎn)品--洗漱用品、啤酒、殯葬服務(wù)--的供應(yīng)商也需要考慮消費者情緒的起落對他們底線的影響。

Of course, timing the next downturn is easier said than done. So as we head into a new year, we reached out to the Fast Company Impact Council—a leadership group of 200 founders, executives, and creatives—to gauge how some of the smartest and most innovative people in business are thinking about a possible recession.

當(dāng)然，預(yù)測下一次衰退說起來容易做起來難。因此我們在步入新一年的時候，聯(lián)系了《快速公司》影響委員會(Fast Company Impact Council)，以便獲悉商業(yè)中最聰明最富創(chuàng)新精神的一撥人是如何看待可能發(fā)生的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的。這個委員會是由200名創(chuàng)始人、執(zhí)行官和創(chuàng)意官組成的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)集團(tuán)。

About 4 in 10 respondents told us they expect the global economy in 2020 to perform about the same. But remarkably, nearly 45% predicted that the next 12 months would be worse for business. Only 16% said that the global economy would be better.

大約四成的調(diào)查對象告訴我們，他們預(yù)計全球經(jīng)濟(jì)在2020年與今年表現(xiàn)相同。但是令人驚訝的是，近45%的人預(yù)測，接下來的12個月對商業(yè)更加不利。只有16%的人說全球經(jīng)濟(jì)將轉(zhuǎn)好。

Impact Council members were more like-minded about the timing of the next downturn. While 21% predicted a recession would hit in 2020, the majority (54%) said it would likely arrive in 2021, after the next presidential election. About 15% responded that the next recession would come in 2022. Only 1 in 10 said the economy would continue to grow until 2023 or later.

影響委員會的成員在預(yù)測下一次經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退方面看法更加一致。雖然有21%的人預(yù)測，2020年將遭到經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的沖擊，但大部分人(54%)認(rèn)為經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退可能會在2021年出現(xiàn)，也就是在下一次總統(tǒng)選舉后。約15%的人回應(yīng)說，下一次經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退會在2022年到來。只有一成的人說，經(jīng)濟(jì)將持續(xù)增長到2023年及之后。