Black Monday
黑色星期一
Never far from bearish minds is the 1987 crash,which saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average Plunge 508 points on Black Monday.
熊市人士的心中,殷鑒不遠的是1987年的大崩盤:道瓊斯工業(yè)指數(shù)在黑色星期一慘跌508點。
That 508-point plunge on Black Monday was worsened by so-called portfolio insurance,
黑色星期一508點的狂跌,被所謂“證券保險”火上加油。
which is computerized programs designed to bail investors out of stocks in a downturn by selling stock futures.
這種電腦程序設計的目的,就是要在股票下跌時大賣股票期貨,以助投資人殺出股市。
blue chip
績優(yōu)股
And while other blue-chip firms such as Sears,IBM and General Motors,floundered in the 1980s,
1980年代,當其他績優(yōu)股如西爾斯百貨、IBM和通用汽車在掙扎時,
most GE units surged ahead and consistently hit Welch's target of being No.1or No.2 in every market.
奇異集團大多數(shù)的機構卻都能大幅上漲,并且如Welch所愿,在各該領域中都能維持第一或第二的成績。
Like their American counterparts,Japanese executives cheerfully overpaid for their late-80s acquisitions.
日本企業(yè)主管也和他們的美國同儕一樣,在1980年代末期高高興興地花冤枉錢進行一堆購并案。
But the Japanese made another fundamental miscalculation,
但日本人犯了另一個基本的錯誤。
says Gray Saxonhouse,an economics professor at the University of Michigan:
密歇根大學經(jīng)濟學教授Gray Saxonhouse指出:
"They had a faith in American landmarks a faith in American blue-chip names."
“他們對美國的陸標太有信心,對美國的名牌企業(yè)也同樣太有信心。”
bull market
牛市、多頭市場
Some analysts,dwelling on the fundamentals rather than superstition,
一些堅守基本觀念而不盲從的分析家認為,
think the epic bull market that began in 1982 has finally entered a long season of bearishness
自1982年來持久不衰的牛市,終于進入了長期的熊市,
because of the likelihood of very show economic growth in the 1990s.
因為1990年代的經(jīng)濟增長似乎會非常緩慢。
Share prices in the relentlessly upbeat stock market now stand at skyhigh levels by historical standards,
在這毫不猶豫向前沖的股市中,現(xiàn)在的股價指數(shù)站在歷史新高點,
and dividend yields have fallen to near record lows-
但股利卻幾乎掉到創(chuàng)紀錄的低檔——
classic signals that the bull market that began 2 1/2 years ago has got dangerously long in the tooth.
這是很典型的警訊:兩年半前開始的牛市已經(jīng)持續(xù)太久到搖搖欲墜的地步了。
corporate bond
公司債券
The average aggressive-growth fund has risen 29% in the past 12 months.Corporate-bond funds gained 13% overall.
高增長基金在過去12個月平均漲幅為29%,而公司債券基金漲幅為13%。
As a graduate business student at Pennsylvania's Wharton School,Milken made junk bonds a focus of his scholarship.
垃圾債券大王米爾肯還在賓州大學華頓商學院念研究生時,他就以研究垃圾債券得到獎學金。
Despite their reputation for high risk,he found that the securities showed a history of few defaults.
他發(fā)現(xiàn)雖然垃圾債券風險有名的高,但是在過去卻很少出現(xiàn)問題。
Milken believed the securities' relatively high yields,typically 3% to 5% more than any investment-grade corporate bond,were more than enough compensation for that slightly increased risk.
Milken相信這種證券在利潤上比任何的投資級公司債券都要高3%至5%的情形下,遠可以彌補稍微偏高的風險所可能帶來的損失。
default
違約
Greenspan's strong hint last week that the Federal Reserve will continue to push up interest rates
上周Greenspan強烈暗示聯(lián)邦儲備銀行將持續(xù)調高利率,
heightened worries that more governments with over-leveraged portfolios heavily based on interest rate bets could be forced to default.
如此一來,更多的政府就更要擔心他們主要靠賭利率才能維持的一個以債養(yǎng)債的局面即將崩潰,使他們被迫違約。
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Poorer parents,meanwhile,may be tempted to borrow more than they ever expect to repay:
同時,比較貧困的家長可能受到誘惑,去借些自己根本沒打算還的錢。
the default rate on government-backed loans is roughly 22% and bound to rise.
政府提供的貸款中,違約不還的比例是22%,而且一定會再升高。
dividend
股利
But sales rose even faster,and Ford Motor raised its dividend 12.5%,
但是營業(yè)額增長得更快,而且福特汽車的股利增長了12.5%,
the first increase since 1989.
是自1989年來的首次增長。
Dow-Jones Industrial Average
道瓊斯工業(yè)指數(shù)
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed this week at 2,909,1.
道瓊斯工業(yè)指數(shù)本周收盤時是2909.1點,
up 6.3% in the past four weeks and up 544 points,or 23%,since its October low.
在過去四周來上漲了6.3%,比起去年10月的低點,漲了23%,即544點。
The stock market gave the flagging recovery an apparent vote of noconfidence last week when the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 120 points on Friday.
股市上周對于虛弱的景氣復蘇明顯投下了不信任票,以致周五時道瓊斯工業(yè)指數(shù)大跌120點。
Argentina's stock market rose 53% in 1993,for example,
例如阿根廷股市在1993年增長53%,
while Brazil's more than doubled in value.
而巴西股市的價值增長超過一倍。
institutional investor
機構投資者
Another source of fear is institutional investor.
另一個值得畏懼的團體是機構投資者。
While unseating corporate directors is even more difficult than dislodging political incumbents,
因為要把企業(yè)主管拉下臺比罷免現(xiàn)任政府官員還要困難,
big investors are using their vast holdings to put pressure on board members.
所以大股東乃利用龐大的持股來向董事會施壓。
investment bank
投資銀行
Thanks to record sales of everything from derivatives to new stock and bond issues to merger financing,
由于所有業(yè)務的營業(yè)額都創(chuàng)新高,包括衍生性金融商品、新股與債券發(fā)行,還有并購融資,
the pretax profits of U.S.brokers and investment banks zoomed to an unprecedented $8.9 billion last year.
美國證券經(jīng)紀商與投資銀行在去年的稅前盈余增加到史無前倒的89億美元。
junk bond
垃圾債券
When junk-bond king Michael Milken copped a plea last April,
當垃圾債券大王Michael Milken去年4月認罪之時,
he disappointed everyone who had been hoping to see the white-collar trial of the decade.
他讓所有期待觀看一場1980年代白領犯罪大審判的人失望了。
NASDAQ
美國場外交易市場自動報價系統(tǒng)
That kind of talk worries officials at the New York Stock Exchange:
這種談話使紐約股市的人員擔心。
trading technology is advancing so rapidly that the Big Board could be bypassed by such new high-tech systems as the Arizona Stock Exchange,the NASDAQ and now Globex.
撮合交易的科技進步神速,紐約股市的大看板可能被下列高科技的系統(tǒng)所取代:亞利桑那證券交易所、美國場外交易市場自動報價系統(tǒng)以及現(xiàn)在的全球交易所。
Nikkei Stock Average
日經(jīng)股價指數(shù)
When the volatile Nikkei stock index plunged 3.9% last Monday,
當上周反復無常地日經(jīng)股價指數(shù)大跌3.9%后,
many shell-shocked Tokyo investors feared that the entire economy was heading toward the abyss.
許多被嚇壞的東京投資者害怕整個經(jīng)濟又將跌入深淵。
Even more frightening was the more recent,and more devastating,collapse of the Japanese stock market
更恐怖的是:更接近現(xiàn)在、更慘烈的日本股市崩盤,
that began in 1990,when the bloated Nikkei average plummeted from nearly 39,000 to less than 15,000 in 2 1/2 years.
高漲的日經(jīng)平均指數(shù)在兩年半內從將近39000點跌到15000點以下。
public offering
公開發(fā)行
Falcon Cable TV,a Los Angeles-based company with 1.1 million cable subscribers,
位于洛杉磯,擁有110萬用戶的Falcon Cable TV
last week halted plans for a $125 million public offering in the wake of the FCC order.
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上周因為FCC的命令,而停止了一項1.25億美元的公開發(fā)行計劃。
S&P 500
標準普爾500股價指數(shù)
The S&P 500 gained even more than the Dow during 1991,rising 26%,
標準普爾500股價指數(shù)在1991年上漲26%,
and NASDAQ,the most popular measure for small stocks,surged a record 57%.
超過道瓊斯指數(shù),而小型股的最流行指標NASDAQ則飆漲57%。
In Chicago the Mercantile Exchange twice halted trading in S&P 500 futures contracts,which represent the stocks in the Standard & Poor's 500 index.
在芝加哥的商品交易所,兩次中止代表標準普爾500股價指數(shù)的標準普爾500期貨交易。
SEC
證券與交易委員會
Under new SEC rules,companies must provide,in their annual report to shareholders,some value for the stock options granted to executives.
根據(jù)證券與交易委員會的規(guī)則。企業(yè)在提供給股東的年度報告中,一定要披露提供給公司高級主管的認股權的部分價值。
Boom,Boom,Ka-boom!
漲,漲,爆掉!!
1.The day was star-crossed:
這一天是命運多舛的:
Friday the 13th in the month of October,on the eve of the second anniversary of a devastating market crash.
10月的13號星期五,正好是一場股市崩盤災難的兩周年前夕。
"I'm telling you,psychology is really funny.People get crazy in situations like that,"said portfolio strategist Elaine Garzarelli.
投資組合策略專家Elaine Garzarelli說:“我跟你說,心理是奇怪的東西。在那種情況下人們真的瘋掉了。”
Last week Friday the 13th lived up to its frightful reputation.
上周的13號星期五并沒有辜負它恐怖的名聲。
After drifting lower at a sleepy pace for most of the day,the Dow Jones industrial average abruptly lurched into a hair-raising sky dive in the final hour of trading.
在大半天之內以令人打瞌睡的速度往下游移的道瓊斯工業(yè)指數(shù),突然在最后一小時爆出令人發(fā)指的長黑行情,
By the time the 4 p.m. closing bell halted the rout,the index had dropped a nightmarish 190.58 points,
當4點整的收盤鈴聲響起,止住這一敗涂地的狂瀉時,指數(shù)已經(jīng)暴跌了惡夢般的190.58點,
or nearly 7%,to close at 2569.26.
將近7%跌幅,而以2569.26點作收。
2.The sell-off was the sharpest since the market plunged 508 points on Oct.19,1987.
這次是自1987年10月19日股市崩盤508點以來的最大跌幅。
In terms of points,it was the second largest loss in Wall Street history;
以點數(shù)來說,是華爾街有史以來第二大的損失;
in percentage,the day ranked twelfth worst.
以百分比來說,是排名第12高跌幅。
"It's total emotional and psychological chaos,"said Eugene Peroni,an analyst with Janney Montgomery Scott,a Philadelphia brokerage firm.
Eugene Peroni是費城的證券公司Janney Montgomery Scott的分析師,他說:“這是情緒與心理雙重的大混亂。
"People are dumping everything.A great deal of money is being lost."
大家什么都賣。大把的鈔票就這么沒了。”
3.The drop invited instant comparison with the month's two historic calamities:
這次重挫很快引來與歷史上發(fā)生在10月的另兩次大禍的比較:
the 1987 collapse on Oct.19 and the 1929 debacle on Oct.29.
1987年10月19日的崩盤與1929年10月29日的長黑。
Particularly gnawing was the memory that 1987's Black Monday was preceded by a Friday plunge of 108.35 points.
特別令投資人心生恐懼的是1987年的“黑色星期一”之前的那個星期五交易日,也是大跌108.35點。
Last week's drop-off rekindled fears
上周的暴跌重新挑起人們的害怕:
that an era of heedless borrowing by corporations and the Federal Government might finally be coming to grief.
企業(yè)與聯(lián)邦政府不加思索就拼命借貸的時代可能終于到了悲哀的一刻。
At the very least,the rout reminded investors that the stock market is a volatile place where fortunes can vanish at the touch of a computer key.
這次潰敗至少證明股市仍是一個變化多端的所在,財產(chǎn)可以在彈指之間消失無蹤。
After one frantic hour of selling conducted to a large extent by program trades,nearly $200 billion of stock values were wiped out last week.
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在上周,只要瘋狂的一個鐘點,大部分通過電腦進行的殺出動作就使股市損失了將近2000億美元。
4.The Bush Administration moved swiftly to avert any sense of crisis after the market closed.
布什么政府在收市后迅速行動,消除人民心中的危機感。
Declared Treasury Secretary Nicholas Brady:
財政部長Nicholas Brady宣稱:
"It's important to recognize that today's stock market decline doesn't signal any fundamental change in the condition of the economy.
“我們必須了解,今天的股市長黑并不意味經(jīng)濟狀況有任何根本的改變。
The economy remains well balanced,and the outlook is for continued moderate growth."
國內經(jīng)濟相當穩(wěn)定,而展望未來,仍可繼續(xù)有溫和的增長。”
But Massachusetts Democrat Edward Markey,who chairs a House subcommittee on telecommunications and finance,vowed to hold hearings this week on the stock market slide.
但是麻州民主黨眾議員Edward Markey,目前主掌眾院的一個通訊與財政小組委員會,他堅稱要本周針對股市大跌舉行聽證會。
Said he:"This is the second heart attack.
他說:“這是第二次心臟病發(fā)作了。
My hope is that before we have the inevitable third heart attack,we pay attention to these problems."
我希望在不可避免的第三次發(fā)作來到之前,我們應該注意這些問題。”
5.Experts found no shortage of culprits to blame for the latest debacle.
對于最近的這次暴跌,專家不愁找不到理由來怪罪。
A series of downbeat realizations converged on Friday,
在星期五,一堆悲觀的事全湊在一塊兒,
ranging from signs of a new burst of inflation to sagging corporate profits to troubles in the junk-bond market that has fueled major takeovers.
包括通貨膨脹爆發(fā)的新跡象,企業(yè)低落的利潤,以及促成大型購并案的垃圾債券市場出毛病。
The singular event that shook investors was the faltering of a $6.75 billion labor-management buyout of UAL,the parent company of United Airlines,the second largest U.S.carrier.
至于攻潰股市人心的單一事件,則是美國第二大的聯(lián)合航空公司一樁未談攏的購并案。聯(lián)航母公司UAL的勞資雙方合作欲以67.5億美元買下UAL,但是沒有談成。
"That's when all hell broke loose,"said Robert Newman,a floor trader for Equitrade Partners.
Equitrade Partners公司的交易員Robert Newman說:“時至于此,一切都完了。
"It was very reminiscent of something I do not care to think about."
這次事件,跟我想都不愿想的一件往事實在太類似了。”
6.On one point most thoughtful Wall Streeters agreed:
有頭腦的華爾街人士都同意一點:
the market had reached such dizzying heights that a correction of some sort seemed almost inevitable.
股市指數(shù)沖到令人“往下看會頭暈”的高點時,某種“回檔整理”似乎是無可避免的。
Propelled by favorable economic news and a wave of multibillion-dollar takeovers,stocks had soared more than 1,000 points since the 1987 crash.
受到經(jīng)濟好消息及一波波數(shù)十億元的購并案激勵,股市自1987年崩盤以來已經(jīng)上漲超過1000點。
But by last August some Wall streeters were clearly worried.
可是到了8月,有些人就明顯開始擔心。
Noted Donald Stone,a floor specialist for Lasker,Stone & Stern:
Lasker,Stone & Stern的交易專員Donald Stone說:
"I've been on the trading floor for 39 years,and I've never seen the market go up so fast for so long without a major break."
“我在交易場39年了,從來沒有看過市場上漲這么快,而且這么久沒有遇到一次重大的挫敗。”
Yet the bulls kept on running.
但是牛市持續(xù)著。
Just last Monday the market closed at a historic peak of 2791.41,
上周一的收盤指數(shù)是歷史新高的2791.41點,
its fifth record high in as many sessions.
也是之前連續(xù)五個交易日迭創(chuàng)新高以來的最頂點。
7.The looming anniversary of 1987's crash had prompted many on Wall Street to search for comparisons between 1987's boom and this year's.
在1987年崩盤日的周年即將來到之際,不由得華爾街不比較一下當年與今年的牛市盛況。
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In an investor newsletter dated Oct.1,Shearson Lehman Hutton cited twelve ways in which this year's rally seemed more likely to last.
Shearson Lehman Hutton在10月1日發(fā)出的投資人通訊中,舉出12例說明今年的漲勢比較可能持續(xù)。
Among them:
其中三項:
-Interest rates were rising then,while they are stable or falling now.
——彼時利率在上升,而此時是穩(wěn)定或下降。
-The economy was growing unsustainably in 1987,but more gradually this year.
——1987年的經(jīng)濟增長太快,無支撐力道,而此時較緩和。
-Investor sentiment was wildly bullish then,and far more cautious now.
——彼時牛市心理極為強大,此時則謹慎多多。
8.Yet this year's rally has rested on some shaky foundations.
但是今年的漲勢其實也是站在不穩(wěn)的基礎之上。
Chief among them is the relentless pace of corporate takeovers,
究其大者,應是馬不停蹄的企業(yè)購并。
which enriched everyone on Wall Street,from stockholders to investment bankers.
華爾街的投資客到投資銀行都發(fā)了財。
But the buyouts have been fueled by financing from a junk-bond market that was severely weakened last month
但是供給購并資金的垃圾債券市場在上個月受到重創(chuàng),
when Canadian developer Robert Campeau nearly defaulted on $1.27 billion of debt payments on loans that he had used to acquire Allied Stores and Federated Department Stores.
因為加拿大資本家Robert Campeau有了大麻煩。他收購Allied Stores與Federated百貨公司的貸款中,有12.7億美元的到期債務差點付不出來。
In the wake of Campeau's problems,the money for new takeovers has begun to dry up.
Campeau的麻煩影響所及,新的購并案已失去最大金主。
9.Meanwhile,the Government's chief early-warning gauge of inflation indicated last week that the U.S.economy may be headed for trouble.
在此同時,政府最主要的通貨膨脹早期預警系統(tǒng)上周指出美國經(jīng)濟可能既然出問題。
The Labor Department said its Producer Price Index rose 0.9% in September,
勞工部的9月批發(fā)物價指數(shù)較8月上漲0.9%,
or about 10% on an annual basis,to break a three-month string of declining wholesale prices.
較去年同期則上漲10%,打破連續(xù)三個月的指數(shù)下降走勢。
Earlier in the week,Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan suggested that the Fed remains wary of inflation
上星期初,聯(lián)邦主席艾倫•格林斯潘暗示聯(lián)邦儲備委員會仍舊注意到通彭的可能性,
and therefore would be averse to easing interest rates.
因為將避免調降利率。
That was not what Wall Street wanted to hear.
這可不是華爾街愿意聽到的。
10.The heaviest blow to the market came Friday afternoon.
最致命的一擊發(fā)生在星期五下午。
n a three-paragraph statement.
在簡短三段話的聲明中,
UAL said a labor-management group headed by Chairman Stephen Wolf had failed to get enough financing to acquire United.
UAL說由董事長斯蒂芬•沃爾夫領導的勞資集團無法湊足購并聯(lián)航的資金。
Several banks had apparently balked at the deal,which was to be partly financed through junk bonds.
部分由垃圾債券供給資金的交易顯然讓銀行卻步。
The takeover group said it would submit a revised bid "in the near term,"
收購集團說它“在近期內”將會修正并重新出價,
but the announcement stunned investors who had come to view the United deal as the latest sure thing in the 1980s buyout binge.
可是UAL的聲明已經(jīng)嚇壞了投資人,因為他們以為聯(lián)航購并案的交易應該是1980年代購并狂潮中,絕對沒問題的一宗買賣。
Said John Downey,a trader at the Chicago Board Options Exchange:
芝加哥選擇權交易所的交易員John Downey說:
"The airline stocks have looked like attractive takeover targets.
“航空公司股票向來是很誘人的購并目標。
But with the United deal in trouble,everyone started to wonder what other deals might not go through."
但是假如連聯(lián)航購并案都會出問題,大家即開始猜疑還有多少交易能夠過關。”