VOA慢速英語:Meteorologists Use Supercomputers To Help Predict The Weather

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[00:00.00]From VOA Learning English, [00:00.73]this is the Technology Report. [00:03.62]Many Americans start to closely follow weather reports [00:07.90]in the early fall. [00:09.69]During the Atlantic hurricane season, [00:11.94]predicting the strength and movement of [00:15.47]these huge storm systems is of crucial importance. [00:20.16]Thanks to new supercomputers, [00:22.56]meteorologists for the National Oceanic [00:26.59]and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) [00:28.58]are getting better at predicting the weather [00:31.82]as far as six days out. [00:34.56]Hurricane Sandy hit the East Coast last October, [00:39.40]and caused deaths and widespread damage, [00:43.78]it was one of the costliest storm in U.S. history. [00:49.02]At the time, some people blamed meteorologists [00:53.50]for not correctly predicting the path of the storm. [00:57.64]But weather forecasting is extremely difficult, says Ben Kyger. [01:03.61]He is the Director of Central Operations [01:06.74]at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction [01:11.07]in College Park, Maryland. [01:13.32]"You’ve got major patterns in the atmosphere, [01:16.61]like the jet stream, [01:18.25]but you’ve also got little eddies, little currents, [01:21.33]little things happening all over the place. [01:23.72]All these little changes are interacting with each other, [01:27.31]continuously, all day long. [01:28.55]So if you look at it from above, from a satellite, [01:31.25]you see the atmosphere moving [01:33.04]and churning in big ways and little ways." [01:35.73]Ben Kyger says oceans are another issue [01:39.51]because they closely interact with the atmosphere [01:43.44]and have a huge effect on storms. [01:46.97]NOAA has spent about $20 million on two new supercomputers, [01:53.80]in an effort to improve the dependability of the forecasts. [01:58.93]"These computers generate the initial model guidance [02:02.86]that the whole forecast process depends on, [02:05.50]for all the weather information that you see, [02:08.49]with snowstorms, tornadoes, hurricanes, [02:12.17]how hot it’s going to be today [02:14.12]— all of your weather forecasts start [02:16.22]with what comes off of these supercomputers." [02:19.51]It takes a huge amount of computational power [02:22.80]to examine data from weather satellites, [02:26.64]ground stations and other sources. [02:30.02]It then take a lot of power to predict temperature, [02:34.16]air pressure, humidity and wind speed. [02:37.99]But human brains and experience [02:41.24]are still very important to the process. [02:44.02]Meteorologists at the National Centers [02:47.71]for Environmental Prediction scan the same data [02:51.74]that the supercomputers get before issuing a weather report. [02:56.24]"They are looking at lots of different models run of different computers, [03:00.73]and then they are creating that five-day forecast. [03:05.12]They use lots of scientific and subjective knowledge [03:09.01]from doing it year after year. [03:10.85]They know where the models are strong, where they’re weak [03:13.88]and they give us significantly better forecasts [03:16.98]than the models would do by themselves." [03:19.02]NOAA issues worldwide forecasts every six hours every day of the year. [03:26.05]The reports are free and are helpful for many countries [03:32.27]that cannot afford their own weather service. [03:35.85]NOAA continues working to improve its weather-forecasting abilities, [03:40.93]another upgrade of its weather-predicting supercomputers [03:45.11]is planed for as earlier as 2015. [03:49.39]And that is the Technology Report from VOA Learning English. [03:55.27]I'm June Simms.

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By VOA

22 September, 2013

From VOA Learning English, this is the Technology Report.

Many Americans start to closely follow weather reports in the early fall. During the Atlantic hurricane season, predicting the strength and movement of these huge storm systems is of crucial importance. Thanks to new supercomputers, meteorologists for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are getting better at predicting the weather as far as six days out.

Hurricane Sandy hit the East Coast last October, and caused deaths and widespread damage, it was one of the costliest storm in U.S. history. At the time, some people blamed meteorologists for not correctly predicting the path of the storm.

But weather forecasting is extremely difficult, says Ben Kyger. He is the Director of Central Operations at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction in College Park, Maryland.

"You've got major patterns in the atmosphere, like the jet stream, but you've also got little eddies, little currents, little things happening all over the place. All these little changes are interacting with each other, continuously, all day long. So if you look at it from above, from a satellite, you see the atmosphere moving and churning in big ways and little ways."

Ben Kyger says oceans are another issue because they closely interact with the atmosphere and have a huge effect on storms. NOAA has spent about $20 million on two new supercomputers, in an effort to improve the dependability of the forecasts.

"These computers generate the initial model guidance that the whole forecast process depends on, for all the weather information that you see, with snowstorms, tornadoes, hurricanes, how hot it's going to be today — all of your weather forecasts start with what comes off of these supercomputers."

It takes a huge amount of computational power to examine data from weather satellites, ground stations and other sources. It then take a lot of power to predict temperature, air pressure, humidity and wind speed.

But human brains and experience are still very important to the process. Meteorologists at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction scan the same data that the supercomputers get before issuing a weather report.

"They are looking at lots of different models run of different computers, and then they are creating that five-day forecast. They use lots of scientific and subjective knowledge from doing it year after year. They know where the models are strong, where they're weak and they give us significantly better forecasts than the models would do by themselves."

NOAA issues worldwide forecasts every six hours every day of the year. The reports are free and are helpful for many countries that cannot afford their own weather service. NOAA continues working to improve its weather-forecasting abilities, another upgrade of its weather-predicting supercomputers is planed for as earlier as 2015.

And that's the Technology Report from VOA Learning English. I'm June Simms.

From VOA Learning English, this is the Technology Report.

這里是美國之音慢速英語科技報(bào)道。

Many Americans start to closely follow weather reports in the early fall. During the Atlantic hurricane season, predicting the strength and movement of these huge storm systems is of crucial importance. Thanks to new supercomputers, meteorologists for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are getting better at predicting the weather as far as six days out.

許多美國人開始密切關(guān)注初秋的天氣預(yù)報(bào)。在大西洋颶風(fēng)季節(jié)期間，預(yù)測這些巨大風(fēng)暴系統(tǒng)的強(qiáng)度和移動(dòng)是至關(guān)重要的。多虧了新的超級計(jì)算機(jī)，美國國家海洋和大氣管理局(簡稱NOAA)的氣象學(xué)家們在預(yù)測近六天的天氣上做得越來越好。

Hurricane Sandy hit the East Coast last October, and caused deaths and widespread damage. It was one of the costliest storm in U.S. history. At the time, some people blamed meteorologists for not correctly predicting the path of the storm.

去年十月桑迪颶風(fēng)襲擊了美國東海岸，造成民眾遇難和大面積破壞。該颶風(fēng)是美國歷史上損失最慘重的風(fēng)暴之一。當(dāng)時(shí)一些人指責(zé)氣象學(xué)家們沒有正確預(yù)測風(fēng)暴的路徑。

But weather forecasting is extremely difficult, says Ben Kyger. He is the Director of Central Operations at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction in College Park, Maryland.

但本·古格(Ben Kyger)表示，天氣預(yù)報(bào)是非常困難的。他是美國國家海洋和大氣管理局(NOAA)旗下國家環(huán)境預(yù)報(bào)中心(NCEP)業(yè)務(wù)運(yùn)行中心的主任。

"You’ve got major patterns in the atmosphere, like the jet stream, but you’ve also got little eddies, little currents, little things happening all over the place. All these little changes are interacting with each other, continuously, all day long. So if you look at it from above, from a satellite, you see the atmosphere moving and churning in big ways and little ways."

他說，“我們了解了大氣的主要模式，像高速氣流。但我們也知道大氣中到處會(huì)產(chǎn)生小渦流、小氣流等等。這些細(xì)微變化整天不斷地互相作用。所以從衛(wèi)星上看，就能看到大氣在大范圍和小范圍內(nèi)移動(dòng)和翻騰。”

Ben Kyger says oceans are another issue because they closely interact with the atmosphere and have a huge effect on storms. NOAA has spent about $20 million on two new supercomputers, in an effort to improve the dependability of the forecasts.

古格表示，海洋是另一個(gè)因素，因?yàn)樗痛髿饷芮械叵嗷プ饔茫瑢︼L(fēng)暴有巨大影響。美國國家海洋和大氣管理局已經(jīng)在兩臺(tái)新超級計(jì)算機(jī)上投入約2千萬美元，就是為了提高預(yù)報(bào)的可靠性。

"These computers generate the initial model guidance that the whole forecast process depends on, for all the weather information that you see, with snowstorms, tornadoes, hurricanes, how hot it’s going to be today — all of your weather forecasts start with what comes off of these supercomputers."

古格說，“這些計(jì)算機(jī)會(huì)生成整個(gè)預(yù)報(bào)過程要依賴的初始指導(dǎo)模型。你看到的所有氣象信息，暴風(fēng)雪、龍卷風(fēng)、颶風(fēng)，以及當(dāng)天的氣溫，所有這些天氣預(yù)報(bào)都源于這些超級計(jì)算機(jī)。”

It takes a huge amount of computational power to examine data from weather satellites, ground stations and other sources. It then take a lot of power to predict temperature, air pressure, humidity and wind speed.

分析來自氣象衛(wèi)星、地面站和其它渠道的數(shù)據(jù)需要耗費(fèi)巨大的計(jì)算能力，隨后還需要耗費(fèi)巨大的計(jì)算能力來預(yù)測溫度、氣壓、濕度和風(fēng)速。

But human brains and experience are still very important to the process. Meteorologists at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction scan the same data that the supercomputers get before issuing a weather report.

但人類的大腦和經(jīng)驗(yàn)對這一過程仍然非常重要。國家環(huán)境預(yù)測中心的氣象學(xué)家在發(fā)布天氣預(yù)報(bào)前，會(huì)察看超級計(jì)算機(jī)獲得的同樣的數(shù)據(jù)。

"They are looking at lots of different models run of different computers, and then they are creating that five-day forecast. They use lots of scientific and subjective knowledge from doing it year after year. They know where the models are strong, where they’re weak and they give us significantly better forecasts than the models would do by themselves."

古格說，“他們會(huì)查看很多由不同計(jì)算機(jī)運(yùn)行的不同氣象模型，然后做出5天的天氣預(yù)報(bào)。他們會(huì)運(yùn)用大量年復(fù)一年積累的科學(xué)和主觀知識，也知道氣象模型的優(yōu)點(diǎn)和缺點(diǎn)，所以他們會(huì)給我們做出明顯比計(jì)算機(jī)本身能做出的更好的預(yù)測。”

NOAA issues worldwide forecasts every six hours every day of the year. The reports are free and are helpful for many countries that cannot afford their own weather service. NOAA continues working to improve its weather-forecasting abilities, another upgrade of its weather-predicting supercomputers is planed for as earlier as 2015.

美國國家海洋和大氣管理局每天每6個(gè)小時(shí)發(fā)布全球天氣預(yù)報(bào)。這些預(yù)報(bào)是免費(fèi)的，這對很多自身無法負(fù)擔(dān)氣象服務(wù)的國家來說很有幫助。美國國家海洋和大氣管理局將繼續(xù)提高其天氣預(yù)測能力，其天氣預(yù)測超級計(jì)算機(jī)預(yù)定將于2015年再次升級。

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