國家地理:為了結(jié)束這場流行病 我們必須相信科學(xué)(2)

Which was it, then? Surface transmission or aerosols? Should we be more afraid of contaminated elevator buttons or people breathing near us? Did scientists even know?

那么何者為真？是接觸傳播還是氣溶膠傳播？是受污染的電梯按鈕或是在身旁呼吸的人更令人擔(dān)心？科學(xué)家真的知道嗎？

The shift in advice about masks spooked me, I must admit. Not because of the new advice itself -- I was more than happy to wear a mask if the experts said I should -- but because of the ominous meta message I sensed beneath it: Scientists were figuring this thing out on the fly. The most earnest pronouncements from the world's smartest experts suddenly sounded like little more than well-meant educated guesses.

我必須承認(rèn)，關(guān)于口罩的建議大轉(zhuǎn)彎令我焦慮不安。不是因為這個建議本身，假如專家說要戴口罩，我很樂意這么做，而是因為我感覺到它背后預(yù)兆的元信息：科學(xué)家是在摸索中得出這個結(jié)果的。世界上最聰明的專家用最認(rèn)真的態(tài)度做出的宣告，頓時聽起來不過是出于好意的合理猜測。

As this devastating year draws to its raggedy close, it's worth taking a moment to wonder what the long-term effect will be of watching scientists bob and weave on their way to a better understanding of the coronavirus and how to thwart the disease it causes, COVID-19 -- all out in public and all at breakneck speed. Even for a science geek like me, it has been unsettling to watch them debate, disagree, pivot, and reassess. I've been wishing instead that some lab-coated hero would just swoop in and make it go away. I was a baby in 1955 when Jonas Salk introduced his polio vaccine and vanquished a dread disease; ever after, my mother spoke his name with reverence.

隨著這災(zāi)難的一年進入殘破不堪的尾聲，現(xiàn)在值得花些時間思考，科學(xué)家為了更了解新冠病毒和阻止它所引發(fā)的COVID-19，一路上以驚險的速度左閃右躲穿梭前行，這一切看在公眾眼中會有什么長期影響。即使像我這種科學(xué)宅，看見科學(xué)家相互爭論、意見不合、改變立場與重新評估，也會感到不安。我寧愿有個穿著實驗衣的英雄突然現(xiàn)身終結(jié)疫情。1955年我還在襁褓中時，喬納斯·沙克就是這樣推出他研發(fā)的小兒麻痹癥疫苗，消滅了這可怕的疾病；此后，我母親提到他的名字時總是無比崇敬。

As scientists hustle to deliver us from a terrifying, seemingly intractable plague, there could be another happy ending -- one that involves not just survival but also wisdom. If we learn any big takeaway from this doleful experience, I hope it's not that our fellow human beings are myopic fools but that the scientific process can be trusted to get us through an existential crisis.

隨著科學(xué)家拼命努力把我們從恐怖又棘手的疫情中拯救出來，還是有可能再一次出現(xiàn)好結(jié)局：在這個結(jié)局中，我們不僅能夠存活，可能還多了智慧。如果我們能從這個悲慘的經(jīng)驗中學(xué)到任何重要的事，我希望是科學(xué)過程值得我們信賴，能帶我們度過生存危機。