國家地理:為了結(jié)束這場流行病 我們必須相信科學(xué)(9)

As new findings, even weak or conditional ones, are publicized that contradict earlier findings, those of us trying to follow along can end up frustrated and confused. But while frustration and confusion among the science-minded might be unfortunate, it's not deadly. What really worries me is that those skeptical of science might see the apparent flip-flops as reason to turn against evidence-based advice altogether.

當(dāng)公開發(fā)表的新發(fā)現(xiàn)（即使證據(jù)不足或有附帶條件）與先前的發(fā)現(xiàn)相互矛盾時，試圖跟上進度的我們最終可能會感到挫折而困惑。有科學(xué)頭腦的人感到挫折與困惑或許讓人不太開心，但并不致命。真正令我擔(dān)憂的是那些懷疑科學(xué)的人，他們或許會把這些看似反復(fù)的信息當(dāng)成理由，反對所有基于科學(xué)實證的建議。

Maybe, in a weird way, watching scientists try to build a plane while they're flying it -- as some have described coronavirus research -- will be good for our overall understanding of the scientific process. Maybe the pandemic will persuade even the skeptics how crucial scientific discovery is to human flourishing.

說來奇怪，但或許看著科學(xué)家試圖一邊開飛機一邊造飛機--正如某些人所描述的新冠病毒研究現(xiàn)狀--有助于我們對科學(xué)過程的整體了解。這場全球大流行或許甚至能讓懷疑論者相信，科學(xué)發(fā)現(xiàn)對人類的繁盛有多重要。

That's the hope of Lin Andrews, director of teacher support at the National Center for Science Education. "People innately trust scientists overall, but when it's a polarized topic, things can go wonky," said Andrews, a former high school biology teacher. She and 10 colleagues, seeing the pandemic as a teachable moment, have devised a five-part lesson plan, good for classroom or home use depending on whether particular school districts are open. It focuses on epidemiology as a way to educate high school students -- and, by extension, their parents -- about what the scientific process entails.

這正是美國國家科學(xué)教育中心的教師支持主任林·安德魯斯的希望。曾經(jīng)擔(dān)任高中生物老師的安德魯斯說：“人們一般而言會本能地信任科學(xué)家，但若遇上兩極化的議題，就可能會出岔子?！彼褪乱曔@場大流行為一個教育機會，設(shè)計出分成五個部分的課程計劃，在教室和家里都可以操作，視校區(qū)是否開放而定。該計劃以流行病學(xué)為重點，教導(dǎo)高中生及他們的家長了解何謂科學(xué)過程。

The course shows how scientists construct their theories, Andrews said, by emphasizing "all these stumbles that were made along the way." It includes milestones in epidemiology, such as when British scientist John Snow traced the London cholera outbreak of 1854 to contaminated drinking water. No one believed Snow -- the prevailing theory was that cholera was spread through the air in a contagious "miasma" -- until he had the handle removed from the water pump on Broad Street, shutting off the contaminated water supply and stopping the outbreak.

安德魯斯表示，這個課程通過強調(diào)“一路上遭遇的種種挫折，”介紹科學(xué)家如何建構(gòu)他們的理論。它包含流行病學(xué)的里程碑，例如英國科學(xué)家約翰·斯諾追查到倫敦在1854年爆發(fā)的霍亂源頭是受污染的飲用水。當(dāng)時沒有人相信他--主流理論認(rèn)為，霍亂是通過一種具傳染性的“瘴氣”在空氣中傳播--直到他將布羅德大街上的水泵把手拆除、切斷污染水源的供給并終止霍亂疫情后才改觀。