華爾街的賺錢經(jīng) 第4期:如何從通貨再膨脹中獲利

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Reflation And How To Exploit It

如何從通貨再膨脹中獲利

The most talked-about investing strategy these days isn't stuffing money in a mattress, it's the reflation trade-the bet that the world economy will rebound, driving up interest rates and commodities prices.

就市場(chǎng)而言，最近談的最多的投資策略并不是尋求避險(xiǎn)，而是通貨再膨脹交易——下注全球經(jīng)濟(jì)將復(fù)蘇，從而推高利率水平和大宗商品價(jià)格。

Even though the economy continues to struggle, investors are looking ahead to the time when the massive rescue efforts by central banks and governments gain traction.

即便目前經(jīng)濟(jì)仍然走勢(shì)蹣跚，投資者卻具有前瞻性地看到那了各國(guó)央行和政府的大規(guī)模救助舉措發(fā)揮作用的時(shí)刻。

They are focused on raw materials and commodity-related stocks that would benefit from the surge in infrastructure spending. They are looking to exploit potential bottlenecks in production that could lift prices and corporate earnings.

他們重點(diǎn)關(guān)注原材料和大宗商品相關(guān)類股，這些類股可能會(huì)從基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施支出的飄升中受益。他們還期望從生產(chǎn)瓶頸中獲利，生產(chǎn)瓶頸會(huì)推高價(jià)格和企業(yè)利潤(rùn)。

"Between the bailouts and the stimulus, it's pretty clear that we're going to have some inflation when we get out of this mess," says Roger lbbotson, founder of lbbotson Associates and chairman of hedge-fund manager Zebra Capital Management. He says, "It may not show up for another two years, after that I think it's quite likely and I think you should be positioning a portfolio against that."

伊博森伙伴咨詢公司創(chuàng)始人、對(duì)沖基金公司斑馬資本管理有限公司董事長(zhǎng)伊博森說(shuō)在諸多救助計(jì)劃和剌激計(jì)劃中，很明顯我們走出經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)的時(shí)候會(huì)出現(xiàn)一些通貨膨脹。“他說(shuō)，或許這種情況兩年之內(nèi)不會(huì)出現(xiàn)，但我認(rèn)為在兩年之后，很有可能出現(xiàn)，我覺(jué)得你們應(yīng)該針對(duì)這種情況設(shè)置一個(gè)投資組合。”

Shawn Rubin, an adviser at Smith Barney in New York, has moved some clients partly into natural-resources stocks while using strategies to protect against a spike in inflation.

史密斯·邦尼公司駐紐約顧問(wèn)肖恩·魯賓已經(jīng)將一些客戶的部分投資轉(zhuǎn)移至自然資源類股，同時(shí)使用策略應(yīng)對(duì)通貨膨脹上升的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

One way is to use options, where an investor is able to use relatively small amounts of money and take positions that would profit from a massive drop in Treasury prices or a near doubling in gold prices. "While in the short run such trades may not work, it's a long-term move," Mr. Rubin says. "You should buy insurance when it's cheap."

期權(quán)是一種手段，投資者可以使用相對(duì)較少的資金，建立頭寸應(yīng)對(duì)國(guó)債價(jià)格大幅下挫或金價(jià)上漲將近一倍的情況。如果出現(xiàn)這種情況，他們就能從中獲利。魯賓說(shuō)，“盡管此類交易短期可能不會(huì)奏效，這是一個(gè)長(zhǎng)期性舉措。你得趁成本低廉的時(shí)候就采取防范性措施。”

And despite the recentl altirity that lifted stocks 20% from their lows as of Thursday-the common definition of the return to a bull market, though they promptly fell again Friday-most investors expect a challenging environment well into next year.

盡管在近期漲勢(shì)的推動(dòng)下，截至上周四美國(guó)股市較低點(diǎn)回升了20%一一達(dá)到了通常的牛市回歸標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，不過(guò)上周五再次急劇下滑一一但多數(shù)投資者仍認(rèn)為明年會(huì)遭遇更為困難的環(huán)境。

But the Federal Reserve has taken dramatic steps to revive the economy and stabilize the financial system. It has lowered interest rates essentially to zero and is on track to pump more than $2 trillion into the credit markets.

不過(guò)，美國(guó)聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備委員會(huì)(Fed，簡(jiǎn)稱：美聯(lián)儲(chǔ))已經(jīng)采取許多重大舉措重振經(jīng)濟(jì)，穩(wěn)定金融體系。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)已經(jīng)將利率下調(diào)到實(shí)際為零的水平，并正在逐步向信貸市場(chǎng)注入超過(guò)2萬(wàn)億美元。

On top of that, there is the $787 billion federal stimulus program coupled with a growing budget deficit. Around the globe central banks and governments are making similar moves.

除此之外，聯(lián)邦政府還有7，870億美元的剌激計(jì)劃以及不斷擴(kuò)大的預(yù)算赤字。全球主要央行和政府都在采取著類似舉措。

Paul Kasriel, director of economic research at Northern Trust, says "the Fed will likely err on the side of ensuring that the recovery is sustained and usually that means they will be late in turning against inflation. The political sentiment will be toward inflation and in preventing deflation," he adds.

北美信托銀行有限公司經(jīng)濟(jì)研究主管保羅·卡斯里爾表示，“美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在確保經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)復(fù)蘇時(shí)可能會(huì)出現(xiàn)錯(cuò)誤，這通常意味著他們?cè)诙糁仆ㄘ浥蛎浄矫娴男袆?dòng)可能會(huì)遲緩。”他補(bǔ)充說(shuō)，“政治輿論將會(huì)傾向于剌激通脹和防止通縮。”

Mr. Liinamaa suggests investors keep a "survivor bias". That means "looking for names that have low cost structures and balance-sheet capacity to still be standing" even if demand doesn't recover soon. He cites steel producer Nucor as one example.

利納馬建議投資者考慮那些能夠生存下來(lái)的公司。這意味著尋找那些成本結(jié)構(gòu)較低、資產(chǎn)負(fù)債能力強(qiáng)勁的公司，即便需求短期難以復(fù)蘇，它們?nèi)匀粫?huì)生存下來(lái)。他說(shuō)紐科鋼鐵公司就是這樣一個(gè)例子。

Already there are signs that the market is less worried about deflation. That's clearest in the market for Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities. Back in February, five-year TIPS were priced for a 0.5% drop in consumer prices, now that's swung around to a 1.35% increase.

已經(jīng)有跡象顯示市場(chǎng)并不是那么擔(dān)憂通貨緊縮。這點(diǎn)在美國(guó)財(cái)政部通貨膨脹保值債券的(TIPS)市場(chǎng)上表現(xiàn)最為明顯。今軍二月，5年期通貨膨脹保值債券的走勢(shì)顯示，市場(chǎng)預(yù)計(jì)美國(guó)消費(fèi)者價(jià)格會(huì)下跌0.5%，但目前的走勢(shì)已經(jīng)逆轉(zhuǎn)，市場(chǎng)認(rèn)為消費(fèi)者價(jià)格會(huì)上升大約1.35%。

"The magnitude of the expected inflation rise predicted by TIPS may be small, but the direction tells the tale," says John Hollyer, a co-manager of Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund.

先鋒抗通脹債券基金的聯(lián)席經(jīng)理霍爾耶說(shuō)，“通貨膨脹保值債券走勢(shì)所預(yù)計(jì)的通貨膨脹率幅度或許不大，但方向說(shuō)明了一切。”

"The fiscal and monetary stimulus are causing investors to say there's a decent chance the Fed will be successful and there will be an increase in inflation," he says.

他說(shuō)，“財(cái)政和貨幣剌激舉措正促使投資者相信美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)很可能會(huì)取得成功，通貨膨脹也很有可能上升。”