李開復哥倫比亞大學畢業(yè)典禮演講暢談人工智能AI

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原文+譯文：

Thank you, Class of 2017. ?Thank you so much for inviting me to speak at this wonderful commencement ceremony. ?It’s an honor to be back at Columbia to address this distinguished group of graduates, parents, siblings and special guests. ?We’ve all gathered to share in the joy of this day.

2017屆畢業(yè)生們，感謝你們邀請我參與如此盛大的畢業(yè)典禮。很榮幸能借此重返我的母校哥倫比亞大學，在一群這么優(yōu)秀的畢業(yè)生、各位的家長、兄弟姐妹及各方嘉賓齊聚的重要場合發(fā)表演講，共享這場畢業(yè)盛會的喜悅。

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First, I want to say to you graduates: I am so proud of all of you. You did it! Your families are proud of you. You have earned this day.

首先，我想對全體畢業(yè)生說：我為你們倍感驕傲，祝賀你們學業(yè)有成，各位的家人也為你們而驕傲，今天所有的歡呼和掌聲屬于你們！

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I remember sitting where you are 34 years ago, feeling that these were the best years of my life. ?I found the profession of my life: artificial intelligence. ?I found the hobby of my life -- bridge; I played 30 hours a week, but to this date Columbia still wouldn’t give me a degree in it. ?And I had my first date while at Columbia, and she became the love of my life. ?And finally, on commencement day, I got to sit and listen to Isaac Asimov, the famous science fiction writer. ?I’m sorry that you only get me.

34年前，我就坐在你們現(xiàn)在的座位上，那是我人生中最美好的時光。在大學時代，我找到了一生所追尋的專業(yè)領域——人工智能，也找到了一生中的最大愛好——橋牌。那時我每周打30個小時橋牌，但直到現(xiàn)在，哥倫比亞大學也沒給我頒發(fā)橋牌學位。在哥大我還找到了自己的初戀，很幸運，她后來成為我的畢生摯愛。當年，在我的畢業(yè)典禮上，我有幸聆聽了科幻小說巨匠艾薩克?阿西莫夫的致辭。很抱歉，今天你們只能聽我演講。

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Anyway, I had the best years of my life. ?This is where you expect me, or any commencement speaker to say, "These are the best years of your lives." ??But I am not going to say that.

不管怎樣，我在哥倫比亞大學度過了人生最美好的時光。你們也許會覺得，我或其他畢業(yè)演講者都會說"這些年也是你們?nèi)松凶蠲篮玫臅r光"，而我并不打算這么說。

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I know that these are far from the best years of your lives. I know that your best days are yet to come. ?To be specific, my hope for you is that the next 10 years will be the best years in your lives

我知道這些年遠非你們的人生巔峰，因為最精彩的日子尚未到來。與其寄語今朝，不如展望未來：我相信，未來10年才會是你們最好的人生。

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Why 10 years? ?10 years seem so far away. ?But really it is not. ?Checking in with May 2007 seems like a good way to visualize what 10 years can do in our world.

為什么是10年？10年聽起來有些遙遠，但其實并非如此。如果我們一起回顧2007年5月的光景，你會猛得發(fā)現(xiàn)過去這10年內(nèi)，我們的世界已經(jīng)發(fā)生巨大的改變。

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It is interesting to remember that in 2007, Steve Jobs introduced the iPhone. ?Back then, I was still using my Blackberry, and my wife was still using her Nokia.

大家一定還記得2007年，史蒂夫·喬布斯發(fā)布了iPhone手機吧？那時，我還在使用黑莓手機，我的太太依然用她的諾基亞。

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And in 2007, a young senator Barack Obama, decided to run for President. ?And back in 2007, Donald Trump was still saying, "You are fired" rather than "Make America Great Again."

也是在2007年，年輕的參議員貝拉克·奧巴馬決定競選美國總統(tǒng)；而那時的唐納德·特朗普經(jīng)常喊的是"你被解雇了"，而不是"讓美國再度偉大"。

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So 10 years can do a lot, but the next 10 will do much much more than the last 10. ?Why? ?Because, the next decade will be the Age of Artificial Intelligence, or AI.

所以，10年時間足以使人類生活發(fā)生重大改變，我認為，未來的10年將比過去10年更讓我們瞠目結(jié)舌。因為未來10年是人工智能的時代，是AI來臨的時代。

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As students, you’ve probably seen AI course enrollment go from 80 to 800. ?And that certainly is one leading indicator.

作為工程學院學生，你們應該發(fā)現(xiàn)人工智能課程的選課人數(shù)從80人躍升至800人，這一指標清晰地告訴我們，人工智能正在蓬勃興起。

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I was introduced to AI at Columbia in 1980. ?As someone who has worked for 37 years on research, development, and investment in AI, I can speak with some authority that – AI will be a revolution on the scale of the Industrial Revolution, probably larger, and definitely faster.

1980年，我在哥倫比亞大學初識人工智能。37年來，我一直在人工智能領域從事研究、開發(fā)、投資相關的工作。我可以相對自信地預測，未來的人工智能革命在規(guī)模上將與工業(yè)革命旗鼓相當，甚至有可能帶來遠比工業(yè)革命更快速、更巨大的變革。

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But this is not a hand-wavy futurist AI talk. ?This is an engineer-to-engineer talk. ?We know that AI works. ?We know that AI gets better with more data and more use. ?We know how to extrapolate it to measure its impact in ten years.

我所說的不是未來學家關于人工智能不切實際的預測，這是一場工程師與工程師的對話。身為工程師，我們了解人工智能如何運作，隨著數(shù)據(jù)和使用量的增加，人工智能會如何迭代精進，我們也清楚，如何合理估算人工智能在未來10年會帶來的影響。

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Let’s first see what AI can do today.

首先，我們來看看今天的人工智能可以做到什么。

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Today, an AI image processing company that I invested in can make people’s selfies more beautiful, so much so that every Chinese movie star I know doesn’t allow her photo to be published without it. ??Its user base? ?1.3 billion.

今天，我投資的一家人工智能圖像處理公司可以利用他們的產(chǎn)品技術讓每個人的自拍變得更加漂亮。這家公司的產(chǎn)品已經(jīng)成為了一種流行風尚，我認識的每個中國電影明星都絕不會允許自己的照片未經(jīng)該產(chǎn)品美化就輕易發(fā)布。這個產(chǎn)品的用戶基數(shù)有多大？13億！

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Today, an AI loan company that I invested in China can approve a loan in seconds, with a default rate much lower than a human loan officer who would takes days. ?This company is less than two years old, but will underwrite almost 30 million loans this year, more than almost any bank.

今天，我在中國投資的一家人工智能信貸公司能夠在數(shù)秒內(nèi)完成每筆貸款審批，其壞賬率遠低于一名信貸人員需要數(shù)日才能審核完的傳統(tǒng)繁瑣貸款申請。這家公司成立不到2年時間，今年預估就能發(fā)放約三千萬筆貸款，幾乎超過任何一家我所知的傳統(tǒng)銀行。

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Today, an AI facial recognition company that I invested in can recognize any face from 3 million faces, with super-human accuracy. ?If installed in all the airports around the world, it would essentially prevent known terrorists or wanted criminals from entering any airplane.

今天，我投資的一家人工智能人臉識別公司，他們的產(chǎn)品能夠在300萬張人臉中識別出任一張面孔，精準度遠超人類。如果將這款軟件安裝到世界各地的機場，基本上就能阻止已知的恐怖分子或通緝犯登上任何一架民航客機。

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These three AI companies are worth a total of about $10 billion. ?But that’s loose change compared to what can be built in the next 10 years.

以上3家人工智能公司目前的總估值接近100億美元。這個數(shù)值與未來10年人工智能即將創(chuàng)造出的巨大產(chǎn)業(yè)價值相比，只能算是些零頭小錢。

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In the next 10 years, all financial companies will be turned upside-down, with AI replacing traders, bankers, accountants, research analysts, and insurance companies. ?Last year, my AI investment algorithm returned 8 times more than my private banker. ?That reminds me – when I go home I am going to fire my private banker.

未來10年，所有金融企業(yè)都將發(fā)生天翻地覆的變化，因為人工智能將取代交易員、銀行職員、會計師、分析員和保險經(jīng)紀人。去年，我嘗試采用智能投資算法獲得了比我的私人理財顧問高八倍的收益——這提醒我，回家后就可以把這位私人理財顧問給辭退了。

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In the next 10 years, AI will replace most factory workers, assistants, advisors, and middlemen. ?But AI is not limited to simple jobs. ?AI will also replace many reporters, doctors, and teachers. ?Your AI assistant will know better than you what you would like to eat tonight, where you should go on vacation, and whom you should date.

未來10年，人工智能將替代大多數(shù)工廠工人、助理、顧問和中介。但人工智能也不局限于簡單工作。人工智能還會替代部分新聞記者、醫(yī)生和教師。你的人工智能助理將比你更了解你今晚想吃什么，你該去哪里度假，你想跟誰約會。

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But it doesn’t stop there. In 10 years, mechanical AI will become reliable. AI will be safer at driving cars than people, sweeping changes, as it were, brought by the lowly Roomba…. will grow up and cook, wash, clean and handle all the household drudgery for us.

還有更多，10年后機械化的人工智能將會變得穩(wěn)定可靠。人工智能運用在自動駕駛將比人類駕駛更加安全。今天還比較初級的家用Roomba掃地機器人未來會讓我們刮目相看：機器人將學會做飯、洗衣服、做保潔，幫助人類分擔所有繁重的家務勞動。

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In 10 years, because AI will make so much money for humanity, we will enter the Age of Plenty, making strides to eradicate poverty and hunger, and giving all of us more spare time and freedom to do what we love.

10年后，我們將進入一個富足的豐產(chǎn)時代，因為人工智能可以為人類創(chuàng)造巨大的價值，幫助我們消除貧窮和饑餓。我們每個人也將獲得更多時間和自由，來做我們愛做的事情。

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In 10 years, because AI will replace half of human jobs, we will enter the Age of Confusion, and many people will become depressed as they lose the jobs and the corresponding self-actualization. ?And many of you will become parents concerned with how to improve education in order to prevent your children from being replaced by AI.

10年后，我們也將進入一個焦慮的迷惘時代，因為人工智能將會取代一半的人類工作， 很多人將因為失業(yè)、得不到自我實現(xiàn)而陷入沮喪。到那時，你們當中很多人將成為家長，也必然會考慮該如何提升孩子們的教育，才能避免他們被人工智能取代。

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These predictions are not based on some hand-wavy comparison of the number of neurons possessed by humans and AI simulators. Rather, they are based on an engineer’s extrapolation based on known algorithms, and the real marketplace and workforce.

以上預測并不是基于人類神經(jīng)元數(shù)量與機器仿真的神經(jīng)元數(shù)量之間的簡單對比，相反，我的預測是一個工程師根據(jù)現(xiàn)有算法、市場供需情況、勞動力信息等方面所演繹出來的推論。

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In my company, we have raised over $1 billion to invest in these developments. ?Softbank has launched a $100 billion Vision Fund. ?The tech giants of the past 50 years – IBM, Microsoft, Google, Facebook, have all declared themselves to be AI companies. ?So even if you doubt me, you probably should not doubt all of them.

在創(chuàng)新工場，我們已經(jīng)募集超過10億美元的資金用于投資人工智能，日本軟銀更是啟動了1000億美元的愿景基金。發(fā)展超過四五十年的IBM、微軟、和近代的谷歌、Facebook等科技巨頭，都相繼宣布自己是人工智能公司。就算你懷疑我的預言，你大概不好懷疑這些科技巨頭。

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So, for leading edge, super smart engineers like yourselves, 2027 should be the best of times in your lives. Unless you miss the AI revolution, in which case it may turn into the worst times in your lives.

所以，對于你們這些站在科技前沿、絕頂聰明的工程師而言，2027年將成為你們?nèi)松顜p峰的高點。萬一你不慎錯過了這場人工智能革命，未來10年也可能落入你人生最低谷的慘況。

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Now let me give you three pieces of advice – how not to miss the Age of AI, so that you can have the time of your life.

那么，如何才能不錯過人工智能時代，確保你向人生巔峰而行呢？我提出三個建議：

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My first is: Embrace AI, and align your career by betting on its inevitability.

我的第一個建議：擁抱必將到來的人工智能

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Like all big change, AI requires you to have an open mind. ?It’s OK to be fearful of change.

面對所有重大變革與機遇，你們首先需要開放的心態(tài)來迎接人工智能。對變革有所畏懼絕對正常，

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As Mark Twain explained, "Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear. ?Not absence of fear."

正如馬克?吐溫所說，"勇氣來自抵抗恐懼并戰(zhàn)勝恐懼，而不是來自沒有恐懼。"

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Your hard work has prepared you to confront, or simply accept, or warmly embrace - change that will push you in new directions.

你們過往的努力可以幫助你們坦然面對、欣然接納或熱情擁抱未來的改變——這些改變將推動你找到新的人生方向。

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Given what lies ahead, you must warmly embrace AI. ?While the first AI tools in your industry may appear fragile, be assured they will get better with data.

面對未來，你們必須要選擇熱情擁抱人工智能。即便你所在領域的第一個人工智能工具看上去是那么脆弱不堪，相信我，只要有更多的數(shù)據(jù)，它們很快就能進步。

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The three software companies I mentioned earlier, when they were first launched: often made people uglier, lost millions in bad loans, and thought I was some talk show celebrity. ?But given time and much more data, their self-learning made them dramatically better than people. ?Not only are they better, they don’t get tired nor emotional. ?They don’t go on strike, and they are infinitely scalable.

剛才我提到的3家軟件公司，他們的第一代產(chǎn)品確實狀況百出，自拍美化功能反而把好多人的臉蛋給變丑了，貸款判斷不準也曾造成數(shù)百萬元損失，圖像辨識我的臉居然把我誤判為某脫口秀主持人。但假以時日，當人工智能處理越來越多的數(shù)據(jù)后，人工智能的自我學習能力就能讓這些產(chǎn)品在特定領域的能力遠遠超越人類。人工智能算法還不只是超過人類這么簡單，它們不會疲倦，不會抱怨，不會罷工，人工智能還具有無窮的規(guī)?；瘽摿?。

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With hardware, software, and networking costs coming down, all they cost is electricity.

況且，伴隨著硬件、軟件和網(wǎng)絡帶寬成本的下降，人工智能的成本幾乎就是電費了。

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So whatever domain you choose, be the first to use AI tools. ?If you’re a software engineer, use AI tools to check and optimize your code, to find re-usable code, or even to write new code. ?Use AI tools to hire and build your team. ?If you start your own company, use AI tools to manage your books and maximize your profits. ?Use AI tools to replace your customer support and your salespeople. ?Use robots to produce your goods and autonomous vehicles to deliver them.

所以，不管你選擇什么工作領域，首先要使用人工智能工具。如果你是軟件工程師，你可以用人工智能工具來檢查和完善代碼，找到可復用的代碼，甚至用AI來寫代碼。組建團隊時，用人工智能工具來招聘和挑選人才。如果你準備創(chuàng)業(yè)，可以用人工智能工具來管理訂單并優(yōu)化獲利，也可以用人工智能工具來替代客服和銷售人員。你可以用機器人來制造產(chǎn)品，使用自動駕駛車輛來配送商品。

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The symbiotic combination of humans and AI is all about 1+1=3. ?For example, when a doctor can correctly diagnose cancer, and save 70 lives out of 100, and an early AI tool can save 60 lives out of 100 -- together perhaps they can save 80 lives. ?And when the AI tool improves to saving 80 lives, perhaps together they can save 90.

人類與人工智能協(xié)作的結(jié)果是1+1=3。舉例來說，如果一個醫(yī)生能正確診斷癌癥，并能在100個患者中拯救70個生命，而一個早期人工智能工具可以在100個患者中拯救60個生命。將醫(yī)生與人工智能結(jié)合后，也許他們就能增加拯救80個生命。而且，當人工智能工具優(yōu)化到能夠拯救80個生命時，將人工智能與醫(yī)生結(jié)合，或許就能夠拯救90個生命。

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?So do not passively accept AI, but embrace AI, seek out AI, and find every which way that AI can help you. ?Learn AI, and find clever ways to build that symbiotic relationship earlier. ?Just like the reporter who first found word processing, the accountant who first used a spreadsheet, the first photographer who applied Photoshop, you will have an edge. ?In addition, AI will evolve faster and more broadly than these tools, and your edge will grow and become sustainable.

所以，不要被動地接受人工智能，而應積極擁抱人工智能，探索人工智能的可能，找到人工智能為你創(chuàng)造價值的所有可行性。你們要學會使用人工智能，更快、更聰明地構(gòu)建人類與人工智能間的協(xié)作關系。你們會像第一個使用文字處理軟件的記者，或第一個使用電子表格軟件的會計師，或第一個使用Photoshop圖像處理軟件的攝影師一樣，獲得巨大的收益。此外，與傳統(tǒng)軟件工具相比，人工智能的進化速度快得多，應用范圍廣得多，只有作為積極擁抱的引領者，你在人工智能工具的領先地位才得以鞏固并增長。

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My second piece of advice is: Uphold your responsibility as an engineer.

我的第二個建議：肩負起工程師的使命。

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We all know that for centuries physicians took the Hippocratic Oath, as a responsibility to treat human life as sacred. ?In the age of AI, I think engineers’ responsibilities are equally sacred, or even greater.

眾所周知，數(shù)百上千年以來，醫(yī)生們遵循著希波克拉底誓詞，承擔著神圣的救死扶傷的神圣使命。在人工智能時代，我認為工程師的使命同樣神圣，甚至更加沉重。

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Why? ?Because as top engineering graduates from a top school, during the Age of AI, you are the ones with the power. ?But please remember what the world’s greatest philosopher, Spiderman, said: "with great power comes great responsibility."

為什么這樣說？因為在人工智能時代，作為畢業(yè)于頂級學府的頂尖工程師，你們擁有巨大的權力。請不要忘記世界上最偉大的哲學家——蜘蛛俠的那句名言："權力越大，責任越重"。

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In the Age of AI, autonomous and semi-autonomous algorithms will invest money, take care of children, drive cars, and conduct surgery. ?You will be the ones who build these products, which will impact people’s possessions, health, and even lives.

在人工智能時代，自動或半自動的算法可以負責投資決策、照看兒童、駕駛汽車、完成醫(yī)療手術。未來的人工智能產(chǎn)品將直接影響人們的財產(chǎn)、健康甚至是生命，而你們就是這些產(chǎn)品的設計者、制造者。

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As engineers, we cannot abandon our conscience and sense of responsibility. ?We need to be thorough, diligent, and ethical, not just in the architecture and coding, but also in the design, in the testing, in running the machine learning training, and in downloading the updated parameters.

作為工程師，我們不能背棄我們的道德和責任，我們需要在方方面面都做到嚴謹、勤勉、遵守道德。這不僅僅指架構(gòu)和編碼，還包含設計、測試、訓練機器學習模型以及下載更新的參數(shù)等等。

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The first airbags saved many lives, but they also accidentally killed some children, due to the lack of adequate design and instructions that adequately considered children’s smaller size.

第一代安全氣囊拯救了許多人的生命，但同時由于設計和使用說明不完善，沒有充分考慮兒童嬌小的體形，也意外地導致了一些兒童的死亡。

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So your first responsibilities are to your users, to making your product safe, thoughtful, and usable. ?And more than "product safety." ?You also have a responsibility to foresee and prevent the potential risks of technology to users from getting out of hand. ?So please speak up strongly against "autonomous weapons" or "bartering or sales of privacy data."

所以你們的首要使命是對你們的用戶負責，確保你們的產(chǎn)品安全、周密、有用。應該說不僅僅產(chǎn)品安全，你們還有絕對的責任去預見和防止?jié)撛诘募夹g失控對人類帶來威脅。所以請大聲地對"自動殺人機器"以及"用戶隱私數(shù)據(jù)交易"說不！

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Your second responsibility is to yourself. ??In the Age of AI, you are not just competing with other people, but also with AI. You have a responsibility to work on the hard problems, and avoid wasting your time doing what machines will be able to do. ?Don’t waste your talent repeating what you learned at school. Don’t accept a job that doesn’t challenge you. Take risks and learn vigorously and rigorously so that you can become the best in something specific and useful, whatever your field. Be creative and inventive. ?AI is great at optimizing, but AI cannot invent something new.

你們的第二層使命是對自己負責，在人工智能時代，你不僅僅是與其他人競爭，你還在和人工智能競爭。你有責任優(yōu)先解決疑難問題，而不是把你的時間浪費在機器就能勝任的事務上。不要選擇一份對你毫無挑戰(zhàn)性的工作，無論在哪個領域，都勇于冒險、勤于學習，只有這樣，你才能成為最獨特和最有價值的人類成員。要堅持創(chuàng)新和創(chuàng)造——人工智能的優(yōu)勢在于優(yōu)化，而非從零創(chuàng)新。

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Your final responsibility is to make the world a better place with your choices as an engineer. ?Choose jobs that save lives, not destroy them. ?Choose jobs that empower people, not demoralize them. ?Work for organizations with more compassion than greed, and for people who care more about world peace than world domination.

各位的最后一項使命是作為工程師，用你們的選擇讓這個世界更加美好：選擇拯救生命，而非殘害生命；選擇激勵他人，而非打壓別人；選擇在富有同情心、不貪婪的機構(gòu)工作；選擇心懷世界和平而非妄圖主宰世界的雇主。

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And my last advice: Be in touch with your heart.

我的最后一個建議：追隨我心

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After all that serious tech talk, what I am going to talk about next may seem a little bit out-of place. But it comes from my heart.

談了這么多嚴肅的技術話題，我接下來要說的觀點可能在這兒聽起來有些不恰當，但卻是我的肺腑之言。

Four years ago, I was diagnosed with 4th stage lymphoma. ?I faced the real possibility that my remaining time here was measured in months.

4年前，我被診斷患上淋巴癌第四期，當時我面對的無情事實：我的生命可能就只剩下短短幾個月。

During that time of ultimate uncertainty, I thought a lot about my life. I came to realize that my accomplishments, and even the arrival of AI after waiting 30 years meant nothing to me.

在那段前路未卜的時間，我對生命的意義深思良多。我意識到我所有的成就，包括在等待30多年后終于來到的人工智能時代，對我來說其實毫無意義。I came to realize that by chasing these technologies, products, investments, and my career, my priorities were out-of-order. ?I neglected my family. ?My father had passed away. ?My mother barely remembered me. ?My kids had grown up.

我意識到我過去所追求的科技、產(chǎn)品、投資、事業(yè)，我重視各種事情的優(yōu)先級完全本末倒置。我忽視了我的家庭，我父親去世了，我母親已幾乎不認得我，我的孩子們也不知不覺都長大了。

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One of the books I read during my illness was Bronnie Ware’s book about the regrets of people on their deathbeds. ?She found that no one wished they’d worked harder or spent more time at the office or accumulated more possessions. ?People’s top wish was that they had spent more time, sharing their love of their loved ones.

在治療期間，我讀了布朗妮·維爾（Bronnie Ware）的一本書，書中記錄了臨終病人一生中最后悔的事情。作者提到，沒有一個人會為當年不夠認真工作、不夠努力加班、或財產(chǎn)積攢不足而后悔。人們臨終時最最盼望的，是希望能再有機會花更多時間與自己所愛的人在一起。

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Fortunately, I am now in remission so I am here with you today. ?I am spending much more time with my family. ?I moved closer to my mother. ?I travel with my wife, whether on business or for pleasure. ?When my kids come home, I would take not two or three days off from work, but two or three weeks.

幸運的是，目前我的病情已緩解穩(wěn)定，所以今天我才能來到哥大和你們在一起。如今，我會花更多的時間陪伴家人，我把家搬到了離我母親更近的住處，無論出差還是單純出游，我都會盡量和我妻子一起出行。孩子們回家時，我會從工作中抽出兩三周、而不是僅是兩三天的時間來陪伴他們。

I also spent more time meaningfully connecting with more people. ?I spent weekends traveling with my best friends. ?I took my company on a one-week vacation to Silicon Valley -- their Mecca. ?I met with young people who sent me questions on Facebook. ?I reached out to people I offended years ago and asked for their forgiveness and friendship. ?I wrote a book and shot a documentary to share what I had learned from my near-death experience.

我同時還花更多的時間來認識新朋友，我會用周末時間與好朋友出游，我?guī)ьI公司員工去硅谷度了一周的假期——硅谷對他們來說猶如圣地一般，我約見社群平臺上向我提問的年輕人，我聯(lián)系多年前我曾經(jīng)冒犯過的人，請求他們的諒解。我寫了一本書并拍攝紀錄片，分享我與死神擦肩而過所學到的一切。

My near-death experience not only changed my life and my values, it gave me an enlightened view about what AI should mean for humanity.

這段直面死亡的經(jīng)歷不僅改變了我的人生和價值觀，還讓我更清晰認識到人工智能對于人類的真正意義。

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?Elon Musk and Stephen Hawking have given us their view, a view where machines supersede humans completely, and we are to control them or become them.

埃隆·馬斯克和史蒂芬·霍金已經(jīng)給出了他們的觀點，他們認為機器將全面取代人類，而人類能僅存的選擇：要么控制

AI，要么成為AI。這段直面死亡的經(jīng)歷，讓我想對人工智能的未來提出另一版結(jié)局。

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With my near-death experience, I would like to offer an alternate ending to their prediction of the AI future. ?Surely AI has, or will beat us on many analytical tasks with definitive decisions and outcomes. ?But these tasks are not what make us human. ?What makes us human is that we are able to love.

毫無疑問，人工智能憑借精準的決策和產(chǎn)出，在很多分析型工作上已經(jīng)或必將超過人類。但人類并不是因為會做這些工作而成為人類，我們之所以為人類，是因為我們擁有愛的能力。

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The moment when we see our new-born babies; the feeling of love-at-first-sight; the warm feeling from friends who listen to us empathetically; the feeling of self-actualization when we help someone in need. ?Or if you want empirical proof, the fact that the placebo effect works. ?These all demonstrate that we are far from understanding the human "heart", let alone replicating it. ?But we do know that humans uniquely are able to love and be loved. ?Humans want to love and be loved. ?That loving and being loved are what makes our lives worthwhile.

當我們看見初生的嬰兒，當我們一見鐘情陷入愛河，當朋友貼近傾聽我們分享經(jīng)歷，當我們通過幫助別人而實現(xiàn)自我……人類的愛就在那里。所有這些都表明，我們目前還遠遠不夠充分理解人類的"內(nèi)心"，更不要說復制它了。我們知道，愛和被愛的能力是人類所獨有的，我們渴望愛和被愛，這就是我們生命的意義所在。

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With this belief, we now know what we must do. ?At a minimum, recognize and be thankful that we are loved. ?If we can do better, return the love, and maybe a little bit more. ?Finally, the highest level of love: ?Pay it forward. ?Give love unconditionally.

帶著這個信念，我們就會知道應該接下來該怎么做。首先我們應認可并感恩我們被愛的事實，我們可以回饋他人的愛，甚至加入更多的愛。最終達到愛的最高境界：不斷將愛傳遞下去，不求回報地去愛。

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Coming back to our AI theme, love differentiates us from AI. ?Despite what science fiction movies may portray, I can tell you responsibly that AI programs cannot love. ?They don’t even have feelings or self-consciousness. ?AlphaGo may beat the world champion, but it has no fun playing the game, feels no happiness from winning, has no desire to hug a loved one after it wins.

回到人工智能的話題，愛讓人類有別于人工智能。不要相信科幻電影里描繪的人工智能的愛（或感情），我可以負責任地告訴你們，人工智能不會有愛，它們甚至沒有感情和自我意識。AlphaGo雖然能擊敗世界棋手冠軍，但是它體驗不到手談的樂趣，勝利不會為它帶來愉悅感，也不會讓它激動到產(chǎn)生想要擁抱一位他愛的人的渴望。

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And in the future, even if an AI diagnostic tool is 10 times more accurate than doctors, patients will not want a cold pronouncement from the tool: "you have 4th stage lymphoma and a 70% likelihood of dying within 5 years." ?Patients will want a "doctor of love" who listens to our complaints, gives us encouragement, like "Kai-Fu had the same lymphoma, and he survived, so you can too", and perhaps visits us at home, and is always available to talk to us. ?This kind of "doctor of love" will not only make us feel better, and have greater confidence, but a placebo effect will kick in and increase our likelihood of recuperation.

在未來，即便人工智能診療的準確率是人類醫(yī)生的10倍，但是我們還是不希望從機器冷冰冰的話語里聽到"您患有第四期淋巴癌，有70%的機率會在五年內(nèi)死亡"。我們更希望得到醫(yī)生的關愛，他們會傾聽我們的抱怨，為我們打氣，他們會說，"李開復也得了同樣的淋巴癌，但經(jīng)過治療后穩(wěn)定下來，所以你也要保持希望。醫(yī)生可能來到家里定期出診，我們隨時能與醫(yī)生溝通交流。這些醫(yī)生的關愛會讓我們感到舒坦，給我們更大的信心，這種安慰劑效應的確可能有助于提升康復幾率。

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This will solve the AI employment problem we mentioned earlier. ?The number of "doctors of love" will outnumber today’s doctors. ?The displaced workers can take up careers spreading love and experiences – whether a passionate tour guide, an attentive concierge, a funny bartender, an infectious sushi chef. ?With the new "experts of love" titles many new kind of service jobs will be created. ?And they don’t have to be "jobs", they can be volunteers, at an orphanage or a retirement home. This will give people jobs that AI cannot take away. ?They will do the job with pride and a strong sense of self-actualization. ?Most importantly, this will fill our planet with love and joy.

此前提到的失業(yè)問題不就這么緩解了么？這種"關愛型醫(yī)生"的數(shù)量將超出現(xiàn)有醫(yī)生的數(shù)量。被機器取代的人可以投身于需要關愛及經(jīng)驗分享的行業(yè)——例如，做一名熱情洋溢的導游，充滿關愛的禮賓人員，風趣幽默的調(diào)酒師，極具魅力的壽司大廚。隨著各類"關愛專家"頭銜的出現(xiàn)，很多新興服務業(yè)的工作崗位也將被創(chuàng)造出來。這些工作不一定非要是傳統(tǒng)意義上的"工作"，也可能是孤兒院或養(yǎng)老院提供服務的志愿者。這些工作不但能帶給人們自我實現(xiàn)的自豪感和滿足感，更重要的是，它們能讓我們的地球充滿愛與快樂。

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We’ve built many task-oriented AI that is much better than our brains. That was my dream 37 years ago. ?As a hard-core computer scientist, I’m proud that we’ve come so far. ?But now I realize that I went after the wrong organ. ?The most important part of the human body is not the brain, but the heart.

人類已制造出許多以任務為導向的人工智能，在每個具體任務上它們的表現(xiàn)遠超人腦，這正是我37年前的夢想。作為一個計算機科學家，我為我們所取得的科技進步成就而自豪。但我現(xiàn)在覺得，自己也許追逐錯了方向——人類最重要的器官，不是大腦，而是內(nèi)心。

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That’s a lesson that took me, I confess, too long to learn. My hope for all of you, as your careers blossom and your lives take shape, is that you will approach your lives with all the brains you certainly have, but also, above all, with all the heart you can muster.

我承認，我花了太長的時間才認識到這一點。我對你們的期望是，隨著你們的事業(yè)開始騰飛，人生開始步入新的階段，你們在實現(xiàn)人生目標的過程中不僅要利用你們聰慧的大腦，更要遵從你們的內(nèi)心。

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It will be up to you to carry this forward, but I have confidence: if you let your heart be your guide, you’ll find your way through all of the massive changes that lie ahead, and make the next 10 years the best years of your lives.

未來的重任落在你們的肩頭。我相信，無論未來如何改變，只要遵從內(nèi)心的指引，下一個10年必將成為你們?nèi)松凶钶x煌燦爛的10年！

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Thank you, Class of 2017.

感謝你們，2017屆畢業(yè)生。