你對(duì)氣候變化的了解，可能只是誤解

你對(duì)氣候變化的了解，可能只是誤解

We humans have a natural tendency to focus on negative stories. We tend to assume things are worse than they really are, and going downhill fast. We forget how bad things were in the past and how far we've come.

我們?nèi)祟?lèi)天生就傾向于關(guān)注負(fù)面故事。我們傾向于認(rèn)為事情比實(shí)際情況更糟，而且走下坡路很快。我們忘記了過(guò)去的壞事，忘記了我們已經(jīng)走了多遠(yuǎn)。

In reality, the world is often better — and getting better — than we think, something I wrote about in my book, The Perils of Perception: Why We're Wrong About Nearly Everything.

事實(shí)上，這個(gè)世界往往比我們想象的要好——而且越來(lái)越好——這是我在《感知的危險(xiǎn)：為什么我們對(duì)幾乎所有事情都錯(cuò)了》一書(shū)中寫(xiě)的。

Murder rates, deaths from terrorism and extreme poverty are all down. Life expectancy, health and education levels are up. And yet, there is one vital, urgent exception to this rule: we still don't realise how badly wrong our global climate and environment have gone.

謀殺率、恐怖主義死亡人數(shù)和赤貧率都在下降。預(yù)期壽命、健康和教育水平都在提高。然而，這條規(guī)則有一個(gè)至關(guān)重要的緊急例外：我們?nèi)匀粵](méi)有意識(shí)到，我們的全球氣候和環(huán)境已經(jīng)變得多么糟糕。

A new survey of Britons which tested understanding of some key facts about the environment reveals the extent of environmental misperceptions. Rather than asking people what they thought might happen, this study instead focused on assessing knowledge of the world as it is right now.

一項(xiàng)對(duì)英國(guó)人的新調(diào)查測(cè)試了對(duì)環(huán)境的一些關(guān)鍵事實(shí)的理解，揭示了人們對(duì)環(huán)境的誤解程度。這項(xiàng)研究并沒(méi)有問(wèn)人們他們認(rèn)為會(huì)發(fā)生什么，而是著重于評(píng)估人們對(duì)當(dāng)前世界的認(rèn)知。

One question, for example, was how many of the past 22 years have been the hottest on record?

例如，有一個(gè)問(wèn)題是，過(guò)去22年中有多少年是有記錄以來(lái)最熱的?

The answer is 20, but the average guess was just 12. And one in five people guessed five or fewer.

答案是20，但平均猜測(cè)只有12。五分之一的人猜測(cè)五個(gè)或更少。

Britons also overestimated some facts, such as how much air travel contributes to greenhouse guesses. The average guess was that 20 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions come from air travel, when in fact it only accounts for around 2 percent.

英國(guó)人也高估了一些事實(shí)，比如航空旅行對(duì)溫室效應(yīng)的影響有多大。人們的平均猜測(cè)是，全球20%的溫室氣體排放來(lái)自航空旅行，而實(shí)際上它只占2%左右。

Respondents also assumed that air travel's emissions are about equal to that of all other forms of transport put together, when in reality, the latter contributes about ten times as much as flights. This is due to the relative rarity of flights compared to other forms of transport.

受訪者還認(rèn)為，航空旅行的排放量約等于所有其他交通方式的排放量，而實(shí)際上，后者的排放量是航班的10倍左右。這是因?yàn)榕c其他運(yùn)輸方式相比，航班相對(duì)較少。

Yet despite aviation's relatively limited contribution to emissions overall, one of the most effective environmental actions we can take as individuals is to fly less.

然而，盡管航空對(duì)總體排放的貢獻(xiàn)相對(duì)有限，但作為個(gè)人，我們能夠采取的最有效的環(huán)境行動(dòng)之一是減少飛行。

A study by Swedish academics puts skipping one transatlantic flight as the third most effective action we can take, only behind the much more extreme options of having one fewer child and living entirely car free.

瑞典學(xué)者的一項(xiàng)研究表明，少乘坐一次跨大西洋航班，是我們能采取的第三種最有效的行動(dòng)，僅次于更極端的選擇:少生一個(gè)孩子或完全不開(kāi)車(chē)。