“甜蜜的生意”

“甜蜜的生意”

復(fù)活節(jié)剛過，巧克力行業(yè)的“甜蜜生意”近況如何？巧克力公司對投資者來講是不錯的選擇嗎？FT的Lex專欄對此做出了有趣的短評。

測試中可能遇到的詞匯和知識：

gambol 歡呼，雀躍

budding 發(fā)芽

Easter 復(fù)活節(jié)

hazelnut 榛子

forward multiple 動態(tài)市盈率，即股價與其未來1年預(yù)期每股利潤的比值。比如預(yù)期A公司未來1年每股利潤為1元，而目前它的股價是20元/股，那么它的動態(tài)市盈率就是20倍。

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Chocolatiers: licking their lips（394 words）

Need to focus on faster-growing markets while managing developed ones

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Lambs are gambolling, flowers budding and supermarket shelves heaving with Easter eggs. Very rough estimates suggest that the world will devour a quarter of a million tonnes of chocolate in its biggest annual sweet-tooth splurge. It’s enough to make chocolatiers lick their lips.

Not that they – or their investors – have had much to complain about recently. Consumer spending on chocolate mirrors economic growth. There was a drop in 2009, but a 3 per cent recovery in the following year. That left consumption in the main developed markets at more than 5.5m tonnes, up a tenth over the decade. By late-2013, market researchers were estimating that volume growth in the chocolate sector (for the top 25 nations) was running at over 3 per cent. Gains were coming fastest in less developed markets – South America and Asia – and more slowly in Europe or the US. Annual growth of at least 2 per cent is now expected for the next few years.

A much bigger headache is rising raw material prices. Cocoa is up by a third since early 2013, to more than ￡1,800 a tonne. Milk production has tightened, putting pressure on prices there. A poor Turkish harvest means hazelnuts, too, have become dearer.

So the task for the big chocolate makers is to focus on faster-growing markets, while using new products and brand-management to push share gains in the developed ones. Swiss-based Lindt & Sprungli, which last month posted an 8 per cent sales rise in 2013 and 22 per cent jump in operating profits, is a case in point. It has earmarked Brazil, the world’s fifth largest chocolate market, on the first score, taking a majority stake in a new venture with a local specialist retailer. At the same time, it has launched the Hello range in Europe, chocolate cafés in Australia and Japan, and recruited tennis legend Roger Federer to front its products.

For investors, all this comes at a price. Pure chocolate plays are rare: Mars and Ferrero are private while chocolate is only a part of brand portfolios at Mondelez or Nestlé, say. Lindt shares trade on a 29 times forward multiple; Hershey, 24 times. These shares, though, have returned more than 500 and 200 per cent each over 10 years: the S&P 500, 100 per cent. Affordable luxury, perhaps?

請根據(jù)你所讀到的文章內(nèi)容，完成以下自測題目：

1. Which market is expected to grow at more than 2% annualy for the coming years?

a. The least developed countries.

b. Europe and US.

c. South America and Asia.

d. Australia and Japan.

2. What should chocolatier investors worry most?

a. Global economic growth.

b. Cocoa and milk prices.

c. Business development in emerging markets.

d. Profits of chocolate business.

3. How does Lindt & Sprungli implement its strategy?

a. It focuses on raw material cost reduction.

b. It cooperates with a Brazilian retailer.

c. It establishes a hazelnuts plantation in Turkey.

d. It diversifies its business like Mars and Nestle.

4. In the last paragraph, what does it mean by "for investors, all this comes at a price"?

a. Chocolatier shares are expensive.

b. Chocolates are not cheap.

c. Chocolatier shares are highly risky.

d. Chocolate investors would wait years to get returns.

[1] 答案c. South America and Asia.

解釋：分析說全球最大的25個市場的銷量增長超過3%（干擾信息，說的是2013當(dāng)年），而歐美市場的增長很慢，新興市場的增長很快，第二段結(jié)尾總結(jié)說未來幾年全球市場增長至少2%。因此可以確信增長最快的南美和亞洲超過2%。

[2] 答案d. Profits of chocolate business.

解釋：各種情況最終都需要歸結(jié)到公司的利潤上看，因為投資者是要求投資回報的。

[3] 答案b. It cooperates with a Brazilian retailer.

解釋：ACD文中均未提到。

[4] 答案a. Chocolatier shares are expensive.

解釋：全文一直都在講Lindt瑞士蓮公司的發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略不錯，最后一段筆鋒一轉(zhuǎn)，意思是這么出色的巧克力企業(yè)股價不便宜：29倍的動態(tài)市盈率（如果每股利潤不變，要29年才可收回投資）。最后一句由筆鋒一轉(zhuǎn)：雖然如此，過去10年瑞士蓮和好時(Hershey)公司的回報率達(dá)到500%和200%。于是，Affordable luxury, perhaps?