演講MP3+雙語文稿:去吧、夢想未來

聽力課堂TED音頻欄目主要包括TED演講的音頻MP3及中英雙語文稿，供各位英語愛好者學(xué)習(xí)使用。本文主要內(nèi)容為演講MP3+雙語文稿:去吧、夢想未來，希望你會喜歡！

【演講者及介紹】Charlie Jane Anders

《查理·簡·安德斯》作者查理·簡·安德斯寫的小說和故事都是關(guān)于建立社區(qū)，發(fā)現(xiàn)我們最真實的自我，以及應(yīng)對radica的變化。

【演講主題】去吧、夢想未來

Go ahead,dream about the future

【中英文字幕】

翻譯者Wanting Zhong 校對者Yolanda Zhang

00:13

Every science fiction writer has a story about a time when the future arrived too soon. I have a lot of those stories. Like, OK, for example: years ago, I was writing a story where the government starts using drones to kill people. I thought that this was a really intense, futuristic idea, but by the time the story was published, the government was already using drones to kill people.

每一位科幻作家 都寫過一篇未來 實現(xiàn)得太快的故事。 我寫過很多這樣的故事。 比如說： 多年前，我正在寫一個 政府開始用無人機(jī)殺人的故事。 我覺得這是個非常激越的、 超前的構(gòu)想， 但是當(dāng)故事發(fā)表時， 政府已經(jīng)在用無人機(jī)殺人了。

00:44

Our world is changing so fast, and there's a kind of accelerating feedback loop where technological change and social change feed on each other. When I was a kid in the 1980s, we knew what the future was going to look like. It was going to be some version of "Judge Dredd" or "Blade Runner." It was going to be neon megacities and flying vehicles. But now, nobody knows what the world is going to look like even in just a couple years, and there are so many scary apparitions lurking on the horizon. From climate catastrophe to authoritarianism, everybody is obsessed with apocalypses, even though the world ends all the time, and we keep going.

我們的世界改變得太快， 處在一個加速的反饋循環(huán)中， 其中科技變革和社會變化 會互相推動、增進(jìn)。 1980 年代，當(dāng)我還是小孩時， 我們知道未來會是什么樣。 那應(yīng)當(dāng)是某種版本的 《超時空戰(zhàn)警》或是《銀翼殺手》， 有充溢著霓虹燈的超級都市 和飛行的車輛。 但如今，沒有人知道 僅僅在幾年之后， 世界會變成什么模樣。 在未來的地平線上 潛伏著如此多可怕的魅影。 從氣候災(zāi)難到獨裁統(tǒng)治， 每個人都醉心于世界末日， 哪怕世界一直在走向終結(jié)， 而我們依舊勇往直前。

01:32

Don't be afraid to think about the future, to dream about the future, to write about the future. I've found it really liberating and fun to do that. It's a way of vaccinating yourself against the worst possible case of future shock. It's also a source of empowerment, because you cannot prepare for something that you haven't already visualized. But there's something that you need to know. You don't predict the future; you imagine the future.

不要害怕思考未來， 去大膽的夢想未來， 書寫未來。 我發(fā)現(xiàn)這是件非常好玩、 很能放飛自我的事。 這是一劑疫苗， 能幫你抵御未來可能發(fā)生的 最糟糕的沖擊。 這也是一種賦能的來源， 因為你無法為某件 沒有預(yù)想過的事情未雨綢繆。 但有某件事你應(yīng)當(dāng)清楚。 你不是在預(yù)測未來； 你是在想象未來。

02:04

So as a science fiction writer whose stories often take place years or even centuries from now, I've found that people are really hungry for visions of the future that are both colorful and lived in, but I found that research on its own is not enough to get me there. Instead, I use a mixture of active dreaming and awareness of cutting-edge trends in science and technology and also insight into human history. I think a lot about what I know of human nature and the way that people have responded in the past to huge changes and upheavals and transformations. And I pair that with an attention to detail, because the details are where we live. We tell the story of our world through the tools we create and the spaces that we live in. And at this point, it's helpful to know a couple of terms that science fiction writers use all of the time: "future history" and "second-order effects."

作為一名科幻作家， 我筆下的故事常常發(fā)生在 距今多年后，甚至若干世紀(jì)后， 我發(fā)現(xiàn)人們渴求的是 多彩、繁榮的未來圖景， 但我也發(fā)現(xiàn)，僅憑研究 無法讓我創(chuàng)作出那樣的作品。 于是，我結(jié)合了積極夢想、 對科學(xué)與技術(shù)前沿趨勢的認(rèn)識， 以及對人類歷史的洞察。 我對我所了解的人性 進(jìn)行了大量思考， 并反思了在過去人們對待巨變、 顛覆與轉(zhuǎn)變作何反應(yīng)。 我將其與對細(xì)節(jié)的關(guān)注相結(jié)合， 因為我們正是生活在細(xì)節(jié)之中。 我們通過我們創(chuàng)造的工具 和居住的空間 來描述周遭的世界。 此刻，了解幾個 科幻作家常用的術(shù)語 會大有幫助： “未來歷史”和“二階效應(yīng)”。

03:08

Now, future history is basically just what it sounds like. It is a chronology of things that haven't happened yet, like Robert A. Heinlein's famous story cycle, which came with a detailed chart of upcoming events going up into the year 2100. Or, for my most recent novel, I came up with a really complicated time line that goes all the way to the 33rd century and ends with people living on another planet.

“未來歷史”可以按字面意思理解， 它是還未發(fā)生的事件的年表， 比如羅伯特·海因萊因（Robert A. Heinlein's） 著名的故事循環(huán)， 附有一張未來事件的詳細(xì)圖表， 一直到 2100 年。 又比如我最近的一本小說， 我設(shè)計了一條特別復(fù)雜的時間線， 一直延續(xù)到第 33 世紀(jì)， 最后人們到了另一個星球上生活。

03:35

Meanwhile, a second-order effect is basically the kind of thing that happens after the consequences of a new technology or a huge change. There's a saying often attributed to writer and editor Frederik Pohl that "A good science fiction story should predict not just the invention of the automobile, but also the traffic jam."

而“二階效應(yīng)”指的是 一項新科技或是一次巨變 之后引發(fā)的那些事情。 有一句常被認(rèn)為是出自作家兼編輯 弗雷德里克·珀爾（Frederik Pohl）的話： “一個好的科幻故事 不僅要預(yù)測汽車的發(fā)明， 還要預(yù)測交通堵塞?！?/p>

04:00

And speaking of traffic jams, I spent a lot of time trying to picture the city of the future. What's it like? What's it made of? Who's it for? I try to picture a green city with vertical farms and structures that are partially grown rather than built and walkways instead of streets, because nobody gets around by car anymore -- a city that lives and breathes. And, you know, I kind of start by daydreaming the wildest stuff that I can possibly come up with, and then I go back into research mode, and I try to make it as plausible as I can by looking at a mixture of urban futurism, design porn and technological speculation. And then I go back, and I try to imagine what it would actually be like to be inside that city. So my process kind of begins and ends with imagination, and it's like my imagination is two pieces of bread in a research sandwich.

說到交通堵塞， 我花了大量時間 試圖描繪未來的都市。 它是什么樣子的？ 是由什么組成的？ 是為了何人而建的？ 我試著設(shè)想一個 擁有垂直農(nóng)場的綠色城市， 城市結(jié)構(gòu)有部分不是修建的， 而是由生物生長而成的， 只有人行道，沒有馬路， 因為已經(jīng)沒人開車出行了—— 一個活著的、呼吸著的城市。 我由我所能想象的 最離奇的白日夢開始， 然后回到研究模式， 試圖通過結(jié)合未來主義都市、 設(shè)計精品和科技猜想， 把它變得盡可能合理。 然后我會回頭，試圖想象 住在那個城市里 會是一種什么樣的體驗。 我的創(chuàng)作過程由想象開始， 以想象結(jié)束， 就好比夾著“研究三明治” 的那兩片面包一樣。

05:08

So as a storyteller, first and foremost, I try to live in the world through the eyes of my characters and try to see how they navigate their own personal challenges in the context of the space that I've created. What do they smell? What do they touch? What's it like to fall in love inside a smart city? What do you see when you look out your window, and does it depend on how the window's software interacts with your mood? And finally, I ask myself how a future brilliant city would ensure that nobody is homeless and nobody slips through the cracks.

作為故事的講述者， 首先， 我要以我筆下角色的視角 生活在那個世界里， 并試圖了解他們在 我所創(chuàng)造的空間背景中 是如何面對自身的挑戰(zhàn)的。 他們聞到了什么味道？ 觸摸了什么東西？ 在一個智能城市中談戀愛 是種怎樣的體驗？ 當(dāng)你望向窗外時能看見什么 是否取決于窗戶的軟件 如何與你的情緒互動？ 最后，我會問自己， 一個絢麗的未來都市 如何保證沒有人會無家可歸， 沒有犯罪分子成為漏網(wǎng)之魚。

05:43

And here's where future history comes in handy, because cities don't just spring up overnight like weeds. They arise and transform. They bear the scars and ornaments of wars, migrations, economic booms, cultural awakenings. A future city should have monuments, yeah, but it should also have layers of past architecture, repurposed buildings and all of the signs of how we got to this place.

這就是未來歷史派上用場的地方， 因為城市不會像雜草一樣 一夜之間突然拔地而起。 它們有崛起、轉(zhuǎn)變的過程。 它們背負(fù)著戰(zhàn)爭、移民、 經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮、文化覺醒 的傷痕與勛章。 一個未來城市應(yīng)當(dāng)有紀(jì)念碑， 但它也應(yīng)當(dāng)有一層層過去的建筑， 重新修葺的建筑， 還有我們?nèi)绾蔚诌_(dá)此處的 所有的印記。

06:13

And then there's second-order effects, like how do things go wrong -- or right -- in a way that nobody ever anticipated? Like, if the walls of your apartment are made out of a kind of fungus that can regrow itself to repair any damage, what if people start eating the walls?

然后還有二階效應(yīng)， 比如事情會如何以 出人意料的方式 變壞——或者變好？ 比如說，如果你的公寓墻壁 是由一種可以通過再生 來修復(fù)任何損傷的菌類做成的， 如果人們開始吃墻壁， 那該怎么辦？

06:33

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

06:34

Speaking of eating: What kind of sewer system does the city of the future have? It's a trick question. There are no sewers. There's something incredibly bizarre about the current system we have in the United States, where your waste gets flushed into a tunnel to be mixed with rainwater and often dumped into the ocean. Not to mention toilet paper. A bunch of techies, led by Bill Gates, are trying to reinvent the toilet right now, and it's possible that the toilet of the future could appear incredibly strange to someone living today. So how does the history of the future, all of that trial and error, lead to a better way to go to the bathroom? There are companies right now who are experimenting with a kind of cleaning wand that can substitute for toilet paper, using compressed air or sanitizing sprays to clean you off. But what if those things looked more like flowers than technology? What if your toilet could analyze your waste and let you know if your microbiome might need a little tune-up? What if today's experiments with turning human waste into fuel leads to a smart battery that could help power your home?

06:33

說到吃： 未來的城市會有怎樣的 下水道系統(tǒng)？ 這是道陷阱題。 未來都市并沒有下水道。 美國目前的下水道系統(tǒng) 相當(dāng)詭異的一點是， 你的排泄物會被沖進(jìn)管道里， 和雨水混合在一起， 通常會被傾倒進(jìn)海洋中。 更別提廁紙了。 目前，由比爾·蓋茨率領(lǐng)的 一群科技人員 正在致力于重新發(fā)明馬桶， 或許未來的廁所 對今天的人們來說 會顯得非常奇怪。 那么未來的歷史， 所有那些試錯過程， 能如何引領(lǐng)更好的如廁方式？ 現(xiàn)在有公司 正在測試一種清洗噴頭 作為廁紙的替代品， 它會使用壓縮空氣 或者消毒噴霧幫你進(jìn)行清潔。 但如果這些東西看起來 更像花朵，而不是科技呢？ 如果你的馬桶能分析你的排泄物， 讓你知悉你體內(nèi)的菌群 是否需要一點調(diào)理？ 如果今天將人類排泄物 變成燃料的實驗 能催生智能電池， 更好地為你的家供能呢？

07:45

But back to the city of the future. How do people navigate the space? If there's no streets, how do people even make sense of the geography? I like to think of a place where there are spaces that are partially only in virtual reality that maybe you need special hardware to even discover. Like for one story, I came up with a thing called "the cloudscape interface," which I described as a chrome spider that plugs into your head using temporal nodes. No, that's not a picture of it, but it's a fun picture I took in a bar.

但回到未來的城市。 人們是如何在空間中導(dǎo)航的？ 如果沒有街道， 人們究竟如何搞清地理位置？ 我熱衷于設(shè)想，在這個地方， 有部分空間僅存在于虛擬現(xiàn)實里， 你甚至需要特殊的硬件 才能發(fā)現(xiàn)它們。 比如說在一個故事里，我弄出了 一個叫做“云景界面”的東西， 我把它描述為一個用太陽穴接口 插入你的腦袋的電鍍蜘蛛。 不，不是這張圖，這只是 我在某個酒吧里拍的有趣的照片。

08:14

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

08:16

And I got really carried away imagining the bars, restaurants, cafés that you could only find your way inside if you had the correct augmented reality hardware.

我會難以自拔地想象， 只有配備了正確的 增強(qiáng)現(xiàn)實（AR）設(shè)備 才能光顧的酒吧、餐廳、咖啡廳。

08:26

But again, second-order effects: in a world shaped by augmented reality, what kind of new communities will we have, what kind of new crimes that we haven't even thought of yet? OK, like, let's say that you and I are standing next to each other, and you think that we're in a noisy sports bar, and I think we're in a highbrow salon with a string quartet talking about Baudrillard. I can't possibly imagine what might go wrong in that scenario. Like, it's just -- I'm sure it'll be fine.

但其中同樣存在著二階效應(yīng)： 在一個由增強(qiáng)現(xiàn)實塑造的世界里， 我們會有怎樣的新型社區(qū)， 又會面臨哪些未曾想象的 新型犯罪？ 比如說，你和我肩并肩站著， 你認(rèn)為我們在一個 喧鬧的體育酒吧里， 而我覺得我們在一個 高雅沙龍里，就著弦樂四重奏 談?wù)擋U德里亞。（法國社會學(xué)家， 其理論涉及模擬、擬像、超現(xiàn)實） 我無法想象在這個情境下 會出現(xiàn)什么問題。 我敢肯定一切都會迎刃而解。

08:58

And then there's social media. I can imagine some pretty frickin' dystopian scenarios where things like internet quizzes, dating apps, horoscopes, bots, all combine to drag you down deeper and deeper rabbit holes into bad relationships and worse politics. But then I think about the conversations that I've had with people who work on AI, and what I always hear from them is that the smarter AI gets, the better it is at making connections. So maybe the social media of the future will be better. Maybe it'll help us to form healthier, less destructive relationships. Maybe we'll have devices that enable togetherness and serendipity. I really hope so. And, you know, I like to think that if strong AI ever really exists, they'll probably enjoy our weird relationship drama the same way that you and I love to obsess about the "Real Housewives of Wherever."

然后還有社交媒體。 我能想象到一些 相當(dāng)反烏托邦的情形， 網(wǎng)絡(luò)心理測試、 約會應(yīng)用、星座、聊天機(jī)器人 這些東西都結(jié)合在一起， 把你往糟糕的關(guān)系、更糟的政治 的泥沼里越拖越深。 但我又想起 和人工智能從業(yè)者的對話， 我總會聽他們說， 人工智能變得越聰明， 它們就越會建立關(guān)系。 所以或許未來的社交媒體 會變得更好。 或許它能幫我們建立更健康、 破壞性更小的關(guān)系。 或許我們的設(shè)備能促進(jìn) 團(tuán)結(jié)與際遇。 我衷心希望如此。 我有時候會想， 如果真的存在強(qiáng)大的人工智能， 它們或許會享受 我們古怪的人際關(guān)系大戲， 就像你我熱衷于 《真實主婦真人秀》一樣。

09:58

And finally, there's medicine. I think a lot about how developments in genetic medicine could improve outcomes for people with cancer or dementia, and maybe one day, your hundredth birthday will be just another milestone on the way to another two or three decades of healthy, active life. Maybe the toilet of the future that I mentioned will improve health outcomes for a lot of people, including people in parts of the world where they don't have these complicated sewer systems that I mentioned. But also, as a transgender person, I like to think: What if we make advances in understanding the endocrine system that improve the options for trans people, the same way that hormones and surgeries expanded the options for the previous generation?

最后，還有醫(yī)療。 我常常會想， 遺傳醫(yī)學(xué)的發(fā)展 能如何改進(jìn)癌癥或 失智癥患者的治療結(jié)果， 或許有朝一日，你的百歲生日 只不過標(biāo)志著還有二三十年的 健康、充滿活力的生活在等著你。 或許我剛提到的未來的馬桶 能改善很多人的健康， 包括在世界上某些 沒有復(fù)雜下水道系統(tǒng)的地方 生活的人們。 另外，作為一名變性者， 我還樂意設(shè)想： 我們能否進(jìn)一步理解內(nèi)分泌系統(tǒng)， 從而改善變性群體的選擇， 就像荷爾蒙和變性手術(shù) 拓寬了上一代的選擇那樣？

10:43

So finally: basically, I'm here to tell you, people talk about the future as though it's either going to be a technological wonderland or some kind of apocalyptic poop barbecue.

最后：其實，今天我想告訴各位的是， 人們談?wù)撐磥頃r， 仿佛未來要么是高科技仙境， 要么是讓人不忍直視的世界末日。

10:56

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

10:57

But the truth is, it's not going to be either of those things. It's going to be in the middle. It's going to be both. It's going to be everything. The one thing we do know is that the future is going to be incredibly weird. Just think about how weird the early 21st century would appear to someone from the early 20th.

但事實是，未來不會是 其中任何一種情況。 它會是兩者的折衷，它會兩者皆是， 它會是所有一切可能。 我們唯一知道的是， 未來會非常奇怪。 想想 21 世紀(jì)初期 對 20 世紀(jì)初期的人來說 會顯得多么古怪。

11:13

And, you know, there's a kind of logical fallacy that we all have where we expect the future to be an extension of the present. Like, people in the 1980s thought that the Soviet Union would still be around today. But the future is going to be much weirder than we could possibly dream of. But we can try. And I know that there are going to be scary, scary things, but there's also going to be wonders and saving graces. And the first step to finding your way forward is to let your imagination run free.

而我們都有某種邏輯誤區(qū)， 我們期望未來會是現(xiàn)在的延伸。 就像 1980 年代的人們 認(rèn)為蘇聯(lián)會存續(xù)到今日。 但未來會比我們所能想象的 更為光怪陸離。 不過我們可以嘗試。 我知道未來會有非?？膳碌氖虑榘l(fā)生， 但也會有奇跡，會有慰藉。 而找到前進(jìn)道路的第一步， 就是放飛你的想象力。

11:47

Thank you.

謝謝。

11:48

(Applause)

（掌聲）