中國有望實現(xiàn)8%經(jīng)濟增長目標

China's economy is on track to hit the government's growth target of 8 per cent this year following increased government spending and a surge in bank lending in the second quarter.

在政府擴大支出和第二季度銀行貸款激增的形勢下，今年中國經(jīng)濟有望達到政府設定的8%的增長目標。

The economy expanded at an annual rate of 7.9 per cent in the three months to the end of June, the National Bureau of Statistics announced yesterday, with investment, industrial production and retail sales all contributing to higher output.

國家統(tǒng)計局昨日公布，第二季度經(jīng)濟增長率折成年率為7.9%，產(chǎn)出增長受到投資、工業(yè)生產(chǎn)和零售等環(huán)節(jié)的推動。

China's accelerating growth has already lifted prices of commodities such as iron ore and copper and boosted economic output of raw materials exporters such as Australia and Brazil.

中國經(jīng)濟增長加快，推高了鐵礦石和銅等大宗商品價格，也提振了澳大利亞和巴西等原材料出口國的經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)出。

The speed of the Chinese recovery, without an accompanying boost in demand from advanced economies in North America and Europe, has surprised economists and led the International Monetary Fund to revise higher its outlook for the world economy earlier this month. The Chinese government's mass injection of money into the economy has also pumped air back into the asset price bubbles in the domestic property and stock markets.

在北美和歐洲發(fā)達經(jīng)濟體的需求沒有增加的形勢下，中國經(jīng)濟的復蘇之快，令經(jīng)濟學家感到意外，也促使國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)在本月早些時候調(diào)高了全球經(jīng)濟預期。中國政府向經(jīng)濟注入大量資金，也再度吹大了國內(nèi)房地產(chǎn)及股票市場的資產(chǎn)價格泡沫。

Li Xiaochao, a spokesman for the NBS, said the economy “had stabilised with increasing positive changes” after dipping sharply at the end of last year and expanding at an annual rate of only 6.1 per cent in the first quarter, leading many economists to believe that the government would not be able to meet its year-long growth target of 8 per cent. But the government's pump-priming has turned the economy round, prompting rapid revisions by many economists, and the World Bank, to upgrade China's outlook.

國家統(tǒng)計局發(fā)言人李曉超表示，經(jīng)濟“運行中積極因素不斷增多，國民經(jīng)濟企穩(wěn)回升”。去年底中國經(jīng)濟大幅減速，今年第一季度也僅增長6.1%，許多經(jīng)濟學家因此認為，政府將無法達到全年增長8%的目標。但政府的各項刺激措施已帶動經(jīng)濟好轉(zhuǎn)，許多經(jīng)濟學家迅速調(diào)整經(jīng)濟預測，世界銀行(World Bank)也更加看好中國前景。

“The Rmb1,530bn [$224bn] in new loans in June brought total new lending in the first half of the year to Rmb7,400bn, or almost one quarter of our estimated 2009 GDP,” said Wang Tao, of UBS, in Beijing. “We now expect total new lending in 2009 to reach Rmb9,000bn, a speed of re-leveraging unprecedented in China's history.”

“6月份新增貸款為1.53萬億人民幣，上半年新增貸款總額達到7.4萬億，接近我們估計的2009年GDP的四分之一，”瑞銀(UBS)駐北京的汪濤表示。“我們目前預計，2009年新增貸款將達到9萬億。這種再杠桿化的速度在中國是空前的。”

譯者/岱嵩