Lex專欄：逆轉(zhuǎn)的“韓流”

China is vast, but the whole nation can still be swept by trends — especially if politics enters the frame. When the products of a business are shunned, the consequences can be painful. South Korea, formerly beloved by Chinese consumers for its K-pop and cosmetics, is in the sin bin for agreeing to host a missile defence system for the US. South Korean companies are getting caught in the cross hairs of Chinese disapproval. But the trend may not last long.

中國(guó)幅員遼闊，但整個(gè)國(guó)家仍可能被潮流所席卷——特別是如果牽扯到政治的話。當(dāng)一家企業(yè)的產(chǎn)品被刻意避而不買，其后果可能是痛苦的。以前中國(guó)消費(fèi)者鐘愛(ài)韓國(guó)流行音樂(lè)和化妝品，如今，由于同意讓美國(guó)部署反導(dǎo)系統(tǒng)，韓國(guó)已經(jīng)“被罰下場(chǎng)”了。韓國(guó)公司淪為中國(guó)不滿情緒的靶子。但這股潮流可能不會(huì)持續(xù)很久。

Hyundai Motor and affiliate Kia Motors are the latest to feel the chill. Yesterday, shares in the carmakers dipped in response to reports they have slashed production in China, where combined unit sales halved year on year in March. While neither splits out China revenues, this will drag down Asia’s contribution, around one-third of Hyundai’s total. The group’s Chinese plant sells around one-fifth of total volumes. Kia has similar metrics.

現(xiàn)代汽車(Hyundai Motor)及其關(guān)聯(lián)公司起亞汽車(Kia Motors)是最新感受到這股寒意的韓國(guó)公司。周二兩家公司的股價(jià)雙雙下跌，原因是有報(bào)道稱，它們削減了在華產(chǎn)量——3月份兩家公司在華銷量同比下降一半左右。雖說(shuō)兩家公司都沒(méi)有單獨(dú)列出在華營(yíng)收，但這肯定會(huì)拉低亞洲的貢獻(xiàn)，亞洲市場(chǎng)約占現(xiàn)代總營(yíng)收的三分之一。從中國(guó)工廠賣出的汽車約占該集團(tuán)總銷量的五分之一。起亞情況類似。

These are not the only South Korean consumer names with significant exposure to China. AmorePacific, purveyor of cosmetics, and Samsung Electronics earn around 20 per cent of revenues there. Abashed South Korean groups should learn from compatriot Lotte. The group, which has given over a golf course for the missile site, was the first to be blacklisted. Following official inspections, most of its 100 or more stores in China have been forced to close. But on Monday the company said it will continue to invest there.

在中國(guó)有較大業(yè)務(wù)的韓國(guó)消費(fèi)品牌不只這兩家?；瘖y品集團(tuán)愛(ài)茉莉太平洋(AmorePacific)和三星電子(Samsung Electronics)在華營(yíng)收都占到了總營(yíng)收的20%左右。受挫的韓國(guó)集團(tuán)應(yīng)該向本國(guó)企業(yè)樂(lè)天(Lotte)學(xué)習(xí)。樂(lè)天讓出了一塊高爾夫球場(chǎng)用于部署反導(dǎo)系統(tǒng)，它是最先被列入黑名單的。在遭受官方檢查之后，樂(lè)天在中國(guó)的100來(lái)大賣場(chǎng)大多被迫關(guān)門。但周一該公司表示將繼續(xù)在中國(guó)投資。

Lotte’s long-term view is wise. Geopolitical trends are more unpredictable than usual. However, sabre-rattling by US president Donald Trump towards North Korea is as likely to lead to a rapprochement with China as it is to an escalation of tensions.

樂(lè)天抱著這種長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)眼光是明智的。當(dāng)今地緣政治趨勢(shì)比往常更加不可預(yù)測(cè)。然而，美國(guó)總統(tǒng)唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)對(duì)朝鮮武力恫嚇既可能導(dǎo)致緊張局勢(shì)升級(jí)，也可能導(dǎo)致韓國(guó)與中國(guó)重新修好。

This month, Chinese consumers may be eager to boycott South Korean products, and to fall in line with a ban on travel to the country. Previous diplomatic spats with Japan did not stop Chinese consumers from hoovering up Japanese products ranging from nappies to high-tech toilet seats. Chinese products mostly cannot compete with Japanese or South Korean ones. Until this changes, its shoppers will continue to look east for quality goods.

本月，中國(guó)消費(fèi)者可能迫切地要抵制韓國(guó)產(chǎn)品，并遵從赴韓旅游禁令。以往中國(guó)與日本的外交紛爭(zhēng)并沒(méi)有妨礙中國(guó)消費(fèi)者大肆購(gòu)買各種各樣的日本產(chǎn)品，從尿布到高科技的馬桶座。中國(guó)產(chǎn)品大多無(wú)法與日本或韓國(guó)產(chǎn)品相比。在這種情況改變之前，中國(guó)消費(fèi)者將繼續(xù)把目光投向東方，以尋找優(yōu)質(zhì)產(chǎn)品。