紐約成美國的疫情中心

New York has tried to slow the spread of the coronavirus by closing its schools, shutting down its nonessential businesses and urging its residents to stay home almost around the clock. But it faces a distinct obstacle in trying to stem new cases: its cheek-by-jowl density.

為減緩冠狀病毒傳播，紐約已經(jīng)關(guān)閉了學(xué)校，令非必要商家停業(yè)，并敦促居民幾乎全天待在家里。但在抑制新增病例方面，它面臨著一個明顯的障礙：摩肩接踵的人口密度。

New York is far more crowded than any other major city in the United States. It has 28,000 residents per square mile, while San Francisco, the next most jammed city, has 17,000, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau.

紐約比美國其他任何主要城市都要擁擠得多。美國人口普查局(U.S. Census Bureau)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，全市每平方英里有2.8萬居民，人口密度排第二的城市舊金山每平方英里有1.7萬居民。

All of those people, in such a small space, appear to have helped the virus spread rapidly through packed subway trains, busy playgrounds and hivelike apartment buildings, forming ever-widening circles of infections and making New York the nation’s epicenter of the outbreak.

在這么小的空間里，在擁擠的地鐵、繁忙的操場和蜂巢般的公寓樓，所有人似乎都在幫助病毒迅速傳播，形成不斷擴(kuò)大的感染范圍，使紐約成為美國的疫情中心。

“Density is really an enemy in a situation like this,” said Dr. Steven Goodman, an epidemiologist at Stanford University. “With large population centers, where people are interacting with more people all the time, that’s where it’s going to spread the fastest.”

“在這種情況下，人口密度確實(shí)是敵人，”斯坦福大學(xué)(Stanford University)流行病學(xué)家史蒂文·古德曼(Steven Goodman)博士說。“在人口密集中心，人們隨時都在與更多的人互動，所以它就會成為病毒傳播最快的地方。”

The challenge facing New York and other tightly cramped cities around the United States can be seen by comparing the country’s largest city to its second biggest, Los Angeles.

紐約是美國最大的城市，將它和美國第二大城市洛杉磯進(jìn)行比較，就可以看出它和其他擁擠的美國城市所面臨的挑戰(zhàn)。

As of Monday, there were more than 13,000 confirmed cases of coronavirus in New York and about 500 in Los Angeles. New York reported 125 deaths; Los Angeles reported seven.

截至周一，紐約的冠狀病毒確診病例超過1.3萬例，洛杉磯約有500例。紐約報(bào)告了125例死亡;洛杉磯報(bào)告了7名。

The population of Los Angeles is about half of New York’s, and it has conducted significantly fewer tests for the coronavirus. But researchers said one of the biggest reasons for the difference may be that in general, California residents live further apart from each other.

洛杉磯的人口大約是紐約的一半，而且對冠狀病毒的檢測也少得多。但研究人員表示，造成這種差異的最大原因之一可能是，加州的居住環(huán)境整體而言間距較大。

“Out here, we’re spread out,” said Dr. Lee Riley, professor of infectious diseases at the University of California Berkeley School of Public Health. “People use cars, the public transportation system is terrible. Whereas in New York City, you have the subways, the buses, Times Square, people living in your small apartment buildings.”

“在這里，我們被分散開來，”加州大學(xué)伯克利分校公共衛(wèi)生學(xué)院(University of California Berkeley School of Public Health)傳染病學(xué)教授李·賴?yán)?Lee Riley)博士說。“大家都開車，公共交通系統(tǒng)很糟糕。而在紐約，你們有地鐵、公交車、時報(bào)廣場，住在自己的小公寓樓里。”

By almost any measure, New York has more bustling humanity living, working and playing side-by-side than anywhere in the country.

無論以何種標(biāo)準(zhǔn)衡量，紐約的生活、工作和娛樂比美國任何地方都要擁擠熱鬧。

On an average workday, more than 5 million people jostle onto the city’s subway trains — as many trips as Los Angeles sees in half a month. Far more people live in cramped public housing units in New York — 400,000 — than in any other city. And nearly 40 million people visit Times Square every year, making it one of the busiest tourist attractions in the world.

在一個普通的工作日，會有超過500萬人擠上這座城市的地鐵——這是洛杉磯半個月的地鐵出行人數(shù)。紐約有40萬人居住在擁擠的公共住房里，遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過其他任何城市。每年參觀時報(bào)廣場的人數(shù)將近4000萬人，使其成為世界上最繁忙的旅游景點(diǎn)之一。

In the past weeks, as the coronavirus crept into the country, that crush of people was a vulnerable target.

在過去幾周，隨著冠狀病毒蔓延到這個國家，擁擠的人群成了易感的目標(biāo)。

Dr. Deborah L. Birx, the White House’s coronavirus response coordinator, said on Monday that the “attack rate” — the percentage of the population infected with the virus — was nearly one in 1,000 in the New York area, five times higher than in other parts of the country.

白宮冠狀病毒應(yīng)對協(xié)調(diào)員黛博拉·L·比爾克斯(Deborah L. Birx)博士周一表示，紐約地區(qū)的“發(fā)病率”——即感染該病毒的人口占比——接近千分之一，是美國其他地區(qū)的五倍。

“So, to all of my friends and colleagues in New York, this is the group that needs to absolutely social distance and self-isolate at this time,” she said. “Clearly, the virus had been circulating there for a number of weeks to have this level of penetrance into the general community.”

“所以，我要對紐約的所有朋友和同事們說，這個群體在這個時候需要絕對的社交距離和自我隔離，”她說。“很明顯，這種病毒已經(jīng)在這里傳播了幾周，達(dá)到了滲入普通社區(qū)的程度。”

Concerns about density were also at the forefront as New York officials discussed the spread of the virus in increasingly alarmed tones. New York City is now among the worst hot spots in the world: The city now has more coronavirus cases per capita than Italy, the world’s epicenter of the virus outside of China, where it originated.

隨著紐約官員在討論該病毒傳播時越來越警惕，對病毒密度的擔(dān)憂也成了前沿問題。紐約現(xiàn)在是世界上最嚴(yán)重的熱點(diǎn)城市之一：這個城市現(xiàn)在的人均冠狀病毒病例比意大利還多。

Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo said more than 20,000 people throughout New York state had tested positive for the virus so far, and 157 had died. More than 2,600 remained hospitalized.

州長安德魯·科莫(Andrew Cuomo)說，到目前為止，紐約州有2萬多人病毒檢測呈陽性，157人死亡。2600多人仍在住院。

Hospitals across New York City and surrounding areas reported increasing numbers of cases as administrators announced new restrictions on visitors, and workers warned about shortages in protective equipment. Mr. Cuomo announced plans to send hundreds of thousands of masks, gloves and gowns to health care facilities, and said the Jacob K. Javits Convention Center in Manhattan would be repurposed into four “emergency hospitals.”

紐約市及周邊地區(qū)的醫(yī)院報(bào)告了日益增多的病例，院方宣布對醫(yī)院訪客實(shí)行新的限制，而且醫(yī)護(hù)人員警告防護(hù)裝備短缺?？颇加?jì)劃向醫(yī)療機(jī)構(gòu)發(fā)放數(shù)十萬件口罩、手套和防護(hù)服，并說曼哈頓的雅各布·K·賈維茨會展中心(Jacob K. Javits Convention Center)將被改建為4所“緊急醫(yī)院”。

But he said that initial measures to control the spread of the virus were not working, especially in New York City, where people had been gathering in parks over the weekend and not staying far enough away from each other.

但是他說，控制病毒傳播的最初措施沒有奏效，尤其是在紐約，人們周末聚集在公園里，彼此之間沒有保持足夠的距離。

He said he was still awaiting a plan from the city to prevent residents — especially young people — from getting too close, perhaps by imposing more controls on public spaces and opening some streets to pedestrians.

他說，他仍在等待紐約市的一項(xiàng)計(jì)劃以防止居民——特別是年輕人——過近接觸，可能會通過對公共場所實(shí)施更多控制并向行人開放一些街道。

“I touch this table — the virus could live here for two days. You come tomorrow, I’m gone, you touch that spot,” Mr. Cuomo said. “In New York City, all that density, a lot of people are touching a lot of spots, right? Park bench, grocery counters. Just picture the city in daily life.”

“我觸摸了這張桌子——病毒可能在這里停留了兩天。我走了，明天你來，觸摸到那個地方，”科莫說。“在紐約市如此密集的地方，很多人都在觸摸到很多地方，對吧?公園長椅、雜貨店柜臺。想想這座城市的日常生活吧。”

Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida said on Monday that he would sign an executive order directing the state’s surgeon general to require anyone flying to the state from New York or New Jersey to observe a mandatory 14-day quarantine.

佛羅里達(dá)州州長羅恩·德桑蒂斯(Ron DeSantis)周一表示，他將簽署一項(xiàng)行政命令，指示該州醫(yī)療總監(jiān)要求任何從紐約或新澤西飛往該州的人必須遵守14天的強(qiáng)制隔離規(guī)定。

Many coronavirus cases in Florida, especially in counties that include Miami, Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach, have been tied to New York, and a recent uptick in travel from the region suggested New Yorkers were flying to Florida to flee restrictions.

佛羅里達(dá)州的許多冠狀病毒病例，特別是在包括邁阿密、勞德代爾堡和西棕櫚灘在內(nèi)的縣，都與紐約有關(guān)，最近該地區(qū)旅行頻增，表明紐約人正飛往佛羅里達(dá)以逃避限制。

Coronavirus appears to spread from person-to-person through droplets produced by coughing, sneezing and spitting, according to the initial research. It is mostly transmitted by people with symptoms of the virus, but asymptomatic transmission also appears possible.

根據(jù)最初的研究，冠狀病毒似乎是通過咳嗽、打噴嚏和吐痰產(chǎn)生的飛沫在人與人之間傳播的。它主要由有病毒癥狀的人傳播，但無癥狀傳播也有可能。

It has spread throughout the world, including in cities and countries that are not very crowded.

病毒已經(jīng)蔓延至全世界，包括在人口不太稠密的城市和國家。

No American city is like New York, a regional economic hub that is also a magnet for international commerce and tourism, drawing in 60 million visitors a year. Before the onset of the coronavirus ground the city to a halt, more than 3,000 planes were landing at its airports every day.

沒有哪個美國城市像紐約一樣——作為一個區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)中心，同時吸引著國際商業(yè)和旅游業(yè)，每年帶來6000萬旅客。在冠狀病毒暴發(fā)使城市陷入停滯之前，每天有超過3000架飛機(jī)降落在這里的機(jī)場。

Drawing in travelers and commuters from neighboring states, the city holds about 10 million people at any given time.

這座城市吸引了來自鄰近州的旅行者和通勤者，時刻容納著約1000萬人。

Certainly, there may be other reasons aside from density that cities such as Los Angeles have such a lower rate of coronavirus cases compared with New York, researchers said.

研究人員說，當(dāng)然，除了密度之外，還有其他原因可能導(dǎo)致洛杉磯等城市的冠狀病毒感染率比紐約低。

Los Angeles has taken longer to implement widespread testing, and it has partially shied away from testing, fearing that it would waste resources. Andrea Garcia, a spokeswoman for Mayor Eric Garcetti, said that there were four testing sites in the city, but the locations were only disclosed to those who qualified for the test.

洛杉磯更晚開始廣泛的檢測，并且因?yàn)閾?dān)心會浪費(fèi)資源而避免了部分檢測。市長埃里克·加塞蒂(Eric Garcetti)的女發(fā)言人安德里亞·加西亞(Andrea Garcia)說，該市有4個檢測點(diǎn)，但位置只透露給有資格接受檢測的人。

On Monday, officials in Los Angeles County said they planned to significantly increase its testing soon.

周一，洛杉磯縣官員表示打算盡快大幅增加檢測。

Another factor in the differing rates between New York and Los Angeles may be the warmer weather in Southern California, a climate that some early analysis suggests may slow the spread of the virus.

影響紐約和洛杉磯感染率差異的另一個因素可能是南加州更溫暖的天氣，一些早期分析表明這種氣候可能會減緩病毒的傳播。

Regions with average temperatures above 64.4 degrees Fahrenheit (or 18 degrees Celsius) account for fewer than 6 percent of global cases so far, according to researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

麻省理工學(xué)院(Massachusetts Institute of Technology)的研究人員稱，迄今為止，平均氣溫高于華氏64.4度(攝氏18度)的地區(qū)的病例所占比例不足全球病例的6%。

Other possible factors include better containment measures, or just the randomness of who happened to contract the virus first, and where they went.

其他可能的因素包括更好的遏制措施，或者只是第一個被感染者的隨機(jī)性，以及感染者的去向。

Still, public health experts said that density was likely the biggest reason for why the virus has torn through New York City and not yet hit to the same degree elsewhere. They urged other cities and towns around the country to pay attention.

不過，公共衛(wèi)生專家表示，病毒之所以在紐約市蔓延，而其他城市尚未遭受同樣程度的疫情，密度可能是最大的原因。他們敦促全國其他城鎮(zhèn)留意關(guān)注。

“New York City is often the first to get hit because of how dense it is, and how many international travelers come through,” said Thomas R. Frieden, the former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention as well as the New York City health department. “The question now is whether the rest of the U.S. will learn from New York and avoid the situation that it is facing and is likely to get worse in the coming days and weeks.”

“紐約市往往是最先受到?jīng)_擊的，因?yàn)槿丝诔砻?，而且有非常多的國際旅客進(jìn)來，”紐約市疾病預(yù)防控制中心及紐約衛(wèi)生部門前主任托馬斯·R·弗里登(Thomas R. Frieden)表示。“現(xiàn)在的問題是，美國其他地區(qū)是否會吸取紐約的教訓(xùn)，避免它所面臨的可能在未來幾天和幾周內(nèi)惡化的局勢。”