雙語：高考成績能否預(yù)測(cè)美國高中生未來學(xué)術(shù)能力？

This Saturday, hundreds of thousands of U.S. high-school students will sit down to take the SAT, anxious about their performance and how it will affect their college prospects. And in a few weeks, their older peers, who took the test last year, will start hearing back from the colleges they applied to. Admitted, rejected, waitlisted? It often hinges, in no small measure, on those few hours spent taking the SAT or the ACT, the other widely used standardized test.

3月初，數(shù)十萬美國高中生參加SAT考試，他們非常緊張自己的發(fā)揮，擔(dān)心成績會(huì)影響到上大學(xué)。幾周后，他們那些去年參加了考試的學(xué)長們開始收到所報(bào)考大學(xué)的通知。錄取、落榜還是候補(bǔ)?這在很大程度上取決于他們參加SAT或ACT考試時(shí)那幾個(gè)小時(shí)的表現(xiàn)。

Standardized tests are only part of the mix, of course, as schools make their admissions decisions. They also rely on grades, letters of recommendation, personal statements and interviews. But we shouldn’t kid ourselves: The SAT and ACT matter. They help overwhelmed admissions officers divide enormous numbers of applicants into pools for further assessment. High scores don’t guarantee admission anywhere, and low scores don’t rule it out, but schools take the tests seriously.

當(dāng)然，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化考試只是錄取決定的考量之一。除此之外，學(xué)校還會(huì)參考學(xué)生平時(shí)的成績、推薦信、個(gè)人陳述以及面試。但我們不應(yīng)自欺欺人：SAT和ACT相當(dāng)重要。它們能幫助任務(wù)繁重的招生官們將海量考生劃分開來，以做進(jìn)一步評(píng)估。高分不能保證錄取，低分也不是毫無機(jī)會(huì)，但學(xué)校不會(huì)把考試當(dāng)兒戲。

Unfortunately, a lot of myths have developed around these tests—myths that stand in the way of a thoughtful discussion of their role and importance.

遺憾的是，人們對(duì)這些考試產(chǎn)生了大量誤解，而這些誤解妨礙了對(duì)它們的作用以及重要性的認(rèn)真探討。

Myth: Tests Are Not Related to Success in the Real World

誤解一：考分與現(xiàn)實(shí)世界中的成功無關(guān)

Clearly there are many factors, beyond what is measured by tests, that have an impact on long-term success in work and life. But fundamental skills in reading and math matter, and it has been demonstrated, across tens of thousands of studies, that they are related, ultimately, to job performance.

除了考試衡量的因素外，毫無疑問，還有很多其他因素會(huì)影響工作與生活中的長期成就。但閱讀與數(shù)學(xué)方面的基本技能還是很重要的，通過對(duì)成千上萬份研究的梳理，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，這些技能與工作表現(xiàn)存在終極關(guān)聯(lián)。

Longitudinal research has demonstrated that major life accomplishments, such as publishing a novel or patenting technology, are also associated with test scores, even after taking into account educational opportunities. There is even a sizable body of evidence that these skills are related to effective leadership and creative achievements at work. Being able to read texts and make sense of them and having strong quantitative reasoning are crucial in the modern information economy.

縱向研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，即使在考量了教育機(jī)會(huì)因素后，一些重要的人生成就(比如出版小說或獲得科技專利)仍然與考試成績息息相關(guān)。另外，有大量證據(jù)表明，此類技能還與工作中的有效領(lǐng)導(dǎo)力以及創(chuàng)造性成就有關(guān)。閱讀文本、理解文本以及強(qiáng)大的定量推理能力在現(xiàn)代信息社會(huì)至關(guān)重要。

Myth: Beyond a Certain Point, Higher Scores Don’t Matter

誤解二：高考成績過了某個(gè)分?jǐn)?shù)線后，再高就沒有意義了

Some might concede that these skills are important—but only up to a point, beyond which higher scores don’t matter. It’s an understandable intuition, but the research clearly shows that, all else being equal, more is better.

有些人可能承認(rèn)這些技能很重要——但達(dá)到某個(gè)分?jǐn)?shù)線后，再高就沒有意義了。我們能理解這種直覺推斷，但是研究表明，在所有其他條件相同的情況下，考分越高的人表現(xiàn)越好。

Cognitive skills are not the only factor in success, of course. Our own research has demonstrated that, with certain elite cohorts, like applicants for executive positions, the abilities measured by tests are still important but less so than other characteristics. This is the same phenomenon as in professional basketball, where differences in height become less important among the extremely tall. This highlights the need to assess multiple characteristics with high-quality measures.

當(dāng)然，認(rèn)知技能并非決定成功的唯一因素。我們自己的研究顯示，在某些精英群體中，比如高管職位的應(yīng)聘者，成績衡量的能力依然重要，但重要性已不及其他因素。這個(gè)現(xiàn)象也體現(xiàn)在了職業(yè)籃球領(lǐng)域：對(duì)于身材最高的一批人，身高的重要性減弱了。這凸顯出我們需要高質(zhì)量的衡量標(biāo)準(zhǔn)對(duì)多種因素進(jìn)行評(píng)估。

Myth: Tests Are Just Measures of Social Class

誤解三：考試成績不過是社會(huì)階層的反映

Admissions tests aren’t windows into innate talent; rather, they assess skills developed over years of education. They evaluate a student’s capacity to read and interpret complex prose, think critically and reason mathematically.

入學(xué)考試并非窺視天賦的窗口;相反，它們檢驗(yàn)的是學(xué)生在多年的求學(xué)生涯中學(xué)到的技能，包括閱讀能力、解讀復(fù)雜文章的能力、批判思維能力及數(shù)學(xué)推理能力。

Our own comprehensive look at the issue, including a review of the existing literature and analysis of several large national data sets, showed that the tests were valid even when controlling for socioeconomic class. Regardless of their family background, students with good tests scores and high-school grades do better in college than students with lower scores and weaker transcripts.

我們?cè)趯?duì)這個(gè)問題進(jìn)行全面梳理(包括對(duì)現(xiàn)有文獻(xiàn)的回顧以及對(duì)幾份大型全國性數(shù)據(jù)集的分析)后發(fā)現(xiàn)，即使對(duì)社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)階層這一變量加以控制，這些考試依然是有效的。不論家庭背景如何，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化考試的分?jǐn)?shù)及高中成績高的學(xué)生在大學(xué)里的表現(xiàn)都更好。