中國(guó)人消費(fèi)習(xí)慣發(fā)生深遠(yuǎn)變化

A gentle moderation in China’s headline retailspending growth conceals multiple upheavalsbeneath the surface. Tastes and shopping habits arein flux as consumers rein in purchases of luxuryitems overseas, become more discerning at homeand prioritise spending on their health, families andexperiences, recent studies show.

中國(guó)整體零售消費(fèi)增長(zhǎng)的溫和放緩，掩蓋了表面之下的多重動(dòng)蕩。近期幾項(xiàng)研究顯示，品味和購(gòu)物習(xí)慣正在變化，消費(fèi)者在海外收斂了奢侈品購(gòu)買，在國(guó)內(nèi)變得更加挑剔，同時(shí)對(duì)自己的健康、家庭和體驗(yàn)優(yōu)先安排支出。

Overall growth in discretionary spending was likely to continue moderating in March, accordingto a survey by the FTConfidential Research unit at the Financial Times. This would follow a 10.2per cent year-on-year growth in retail sales in the first two months of the year, down from afull-year 10.7 per cent in 2015 and 12 per cent in 2014.

英國(guó)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》旗下“投資參考”(FT Confidential Research)的一項(xiàng)調(diào)查顯示，可自由支配支出的總體增長(zhǎng)很可能在3月份繼續(xù)放緩。此前，今年頭兩個(gè)月零售銷售同比增長(zhǎng)10.2%，低于10.7%的2015年全年增幅和12%的2014年增幅。

In terms of purchasing habits, a significant change is taking place among the hordes of free-spending outbound Chinese tourists, who said they were less likely than previously to buy big-ticket items such as luxury handbags, jewellery and watches while travelling abroad, accordingto an FTCR survey of 1,318 overseas travellers.

就購(gòu)買習(xí)慣而言，花錢闊綽的中國(guó)出境游客人群正出現(xiàn)一個(gè)顯著變化。根據(jù)FT投資參考對(duì)1318名出境游客進(jìn)行的調(diào)查，他們表示，相比以往，他們不那么可能在境外旅游期間購(gòu)買昂貴物品，如名貴手袋、珠寶和名表。

In contrast, spending on cosmetics, clothes, shoes, electronics and souvenirs held up orincreased relative to the results of the same survey conducted in 2015. The World Travel andTourism Council, an industry body, estimated last week that Chinese tourists spent $215bnoutside mainland China in 2015, a 53 per cent rise from $140bn in 2014.

相比之下，相對(duì)于2015年同一項(xiàng)調(diào)查的結(jié)果，人們?cè)诨瘖y品、服裝、鞋子、電子產(chǎn)品和紀(jì)念品上的支出得到保持，甚至有所增加。行業(yè)組織——世界旅游及旅行理事會(huì)(WTTC)上周估計(jì)，2015年中國(guó)游客總計(jì)在境外支出2150億美元，相比2014年的1400億美元增長(zhǎng)53%。

Key reasons cited for the slide in big-ticket luxury purchases outside China were the easingprices of similar goods at home and the increasing volume of cross-border online shopping,FTCR said.

據(jù)FT投資參考介紹，對(duì)于減少在境外購(gòu)買昂貴奢侈物品，人們提到的主要原因是同類商品在國(guó)內(nèi)價(jià)格下降，以及跨境網(wǎng)上購(gòu)物數(shù)量不斷增加。

Mintel, a research firm, estimates that cross-border online shopping grew at a compoundannual growth rate of 63 per cent between 2010 and 2015. Total online cross-border shoppingis forecast to rise to $222bn by 2020, up from $97.3bn last year, Mintel forecasts, accountingfor 17 per cent of the $1.3tn in Chinese online sales expected in 2020.

研究公司英敏特(Mintel)估計(jì)，2010年至2015年期間跨境網(wǎng)上購(gòu)物的年復(fù)合增長(zhǎng)率達(dá)到63%。英敏特預(yù)測(cè)，到2020年網(wǎng)上跨境購(gòu)物總額將增至2220億美元(去年為973億美元)，占2020年中國(guó)預(yù)計(jì)將達(dá)到的1.3萬(wàn)億美元的網(wǎng)上銷售總額的17%。

The trend to import at the click of a mouse is reinforced by a clear tendency among Chineseconsumers to upgrade to premium products. McKinsey, the research firm, found strongmotivations to upgrade quality and brand in the cosmetics, spirits, dairy milk, hair care, rice,fresh produce, beer and other sectors (see chart).

強(qiáng)化這種“海淘”趨勢(shì)的一個(gè)現(xiàn)象是，中國(guó)消費(fèi)者出現(xiàn)了向高端產(chǎn)品升級(jí)的明顯傾向。研究公司麥肯錫(McKinsey)發(fā)現(xiàn)，人們?cè)诨瘖y品、烈酒、牛奶及奶制品、護(hù)發(fā)、大米、生鮮、啤酒等品類上表現(xiàn)出升級(jí)質(zhì)量和品牌的強(qiáng)大動(dòng)力(見(jiàn)圖表)。

This trend was echoed in a growing aversion toward products seen as less healthy orpotentially harmful, according to the McKinsey survey, which polled 10,000 consumers in 44cities in late 2015. Carbonated soft drinks, chewing gum, ice cream and western fast food allslipped in popularity compared with a similar survey in 2012, McKinsey found (see chart).

麥肯錫在2015年末對(duì)44個(gè)城市1萬(wàn)消費(fèi)者進(jìn)行的調(diào)查顯示，上述趨勢(shì)的反面是，中國(guó)消費(fèi)者對(duì)那些被視為不太健康、甚至潛在有害的產(chǎn)品日趨敬而遠(yuǎn)之。麥肯錫發(fā)現(xiàn)，與2012年進(jìn)行的類似調(diào)查相比，碳酸飲料、口香糖、冰淇淋和西式快餐的人氣均出現(xiàn)下滑(見(jiàn)圖表)。

Surging sales in China of Momchilovtsi, a Bright Dairy yoghurt brand that uses bacteria from aBulgarian village that is said to bestow long life, encapsulates the shift toward healthy eating,as do the high prices for speciality teas and robust demand for Thai jasmine rice.

光明乳業(yè)(Bright Dairy)旗下采用來(lái)自保加利亞一個(gè)長(zhǎng)壽村的乳酸菌的酸奶品牌“莫斯利安”(Momchilovtsi)銷售飆漲，以及特種茶的高價(jià)位和泰國(guó)茉莉香米的強(qiáng)勁需求，都突顯了這種轉(zhuǎn)向健康飲食的趨勢(shì)。

However, when the Chinese find brands that they are satisfied with, they appear more likely tostick with them, according to the McKinsey survey. The number of consumers willing toswitch to a brand outside their “short list” has dropped. In apparel, for example, the numberof consumers willing to consider a brand outside their usual consideration fell from 40 percent in 2011 to just below 30 per cent in 2015 (see chart).

不過(guò)，麥肯錫的調(diào)查也發(fā)現(xiàn)，當(dāng)中國(guó)人找到自己滿意的品牌后，他們似乎更有可能忠于這些品牌。愿意換用一種自己“選擇名單”以外的品牌的消費(fèi)者數(shù)量下降。以服裝為例，愿意考慮自己通常考慮范圍外的品牌的消費(fèi)者已從2011年的40%降至2015年的略低于30%(見(jiàn)圖表)。

Increasingly, Chinese people look for memorable experiences rather than products, withcinema, dining, spa visits and travel all posting a robust following. Wang Yang, chief operatingofficer of Zanadu, an online travel agency specialising in overseas travel, told FTCR: “Our clientsgo to the opera in Italy, watch the Northern Lights in Scandinavia and dine at Michelin-starredrestaurants in Paris.”

越來(lái)越多的中國(guó)人尋找難以忘懷的體驗(yàn)，而不是產(chǎn)品，影院、餐飲、水療和旅游都迎來(lái)旺盛需求。專業(yè)做出境游的在線旅行社贊那度(Zanadu)的首席運(yùn)營(yíng)官王洋告訴FT投資參考：“我們的客戶去意大利觀看歌劇，去北歐領(lǐng)略北極光，在巴黎的米其林星級(jí)餐廳用餐。”