人民幣匯率再次讓世界困惑

Not for the first time this year, the behaviour of theChinese renminbi is causing more than the oddfurrowed brow in the markets

人民幣波動(dòng)正在令全球市場(chǎng)眉頭緊鎖，這已不是今年的第一次。

The powers that be in China have spent much of thepast few months patiently explaining that theircurrency’s long-time peg against the dollar is history,and henceforth the renminbi will be managed withreference to a trade-weighted basket of 13currencies.

過(guò)去幾個(gè)月中國(guó)當(dāng)局花費(fèi)大量精力耐心解釋，人民幣與美元的長(zhǎng)期掛鉤已成為歷史，今后人民幣的管理將參照由13種貨幣組成的貿(mào)易加權(quán)貨幣籃子。

Amid widespread confusion over the change in foreign exchange policy, Zhou Xiaochuan,the governor of the People’s Bank of China, spelt it out in mid-February, when he said keepingthe exchange rate against the basket “at a broadly stable level” will be the “keynote” of thenew regime.

面對(duì)市場(chǎng)對(duì)人民幣匯率改革存在的普遍困惑，中國(guó)央行(PBoC)行長(zhǎng)周小川2月中旬作出了詳細(xì)說(shuō)明，他表示保持一籃子匯率的“基本穩(wěn)定”，將是新的人民幣匯率形成機(jī)制的“主基調(diào)”。

“As a result,” he added, “the stability of the renminbi to a basket of currencies will bestrengthened and the two-way volatility of the renminbi to the US dollar enhanced.”

他同時(shí)表示：“實(shí)施這種形成機(jī)制的結(jié)果，將是人民幣對(duì)一籃子貨幣的匯率的穩(wěn)定性不斷增強(qiáng)，而人民幣對(duì)美元的雙向波動(dòng)則會(huì)有所加大。”

All of which makes the currency’s behaviour since the introduction of the exchange rateregime slightly puzzling.

這一切令人民幣新匯率形成機(jī)制引入以來(lái)的人民幣波動(dòng)有些令人費(fèi)解。

So far this year, the renminbi has been virtually flat against the dollar, but fallen 2.9 per centagainst the basket to its lowest level since November 2014, as the chart shows.

如圖所示，今年到目前為止，人民幣兌美元匯率基本持平，但對(duì)一籃子貨幣匯率卻下跌2.9%，跌至2014年11月以來(lái)最低水平。

“If this continued [this will] undermine the People’s Bank’s case that the currency is being kept‘basically stable’,” says Mark Williams, chief Asia economist at Capital Economics, who says theChinese authorities have “mismanaged” the renminbi since first announcing the basket inDecember.

凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)首席亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家馬克•威廉姆斯(Mark Williams)表示：“如果持續(xù)如此，就會(huì)動(dòng)搖中國(guó)央行的說(shuō)法，即人民幣正保持‘基本穩(wěn)定’。”他表示自去年12月首次宣布人民幣匯率參考一籃子貨幣以來(lái)，中國(guó)有關(guān)部門(mén)對(duì)人民幣一直“管理不善”。

“December’s oblique statement that they were managing [the renminbi] against the basketwas one of the triggers of the [global market] panic. So they responded by locking downvolatility against the dollar, the opposite to what the statement had suggested,” Mr Williamssays.

威廉姆斯表示：“去年12月他們?cè)[晦地聲明正在參考一籃子貨幣管理人民幣匯率，這成為全球市場(chǎng)恐慌的誘發(fā)因素之一。而他們的反應(yīng)是鎖定人民幣對(duì)美元的波動(dòng)，這與12月的聲明正相悖。”

He believes the People’s Bank has taken advantage of a period of broad dollar weakness to letthe renminbi slide, a move that has gone little noticed with most attention still focused on thebilateral rate against the dollar.

他認(rèn)為中國(guó)央行利用了美元全線走弱時(shí)期讓人民幣下滑，此舉鮮少引起注意，因?yàn)榇蟛糠肿⒁饬θ约杏谌嗣駧艃睹涝碾p邊匯率。

Robert Minikin, head of Asia FX strategy at Standard Chartered, believes at least part of theweakening of the renminbi on a trade-weighted basis is “tactical”, given that the dollar mightbe expected to strengthen anew if and when the US Federal Reserve starts raising interestrates again.

渣打銀行(Standard Chartered)亞洲外匯策略負(fù)責(zé)人羅伯特•米尼金(Robert Minikin)認(rèn)為，人民幣在貿(mào)易加權(quán)基礎(chǔ)上走弱至少在部分上是“戰(zhàn)術(shù)性的”，這是考慮到如果當(dāng)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Fed)開(kāi)始再次加息，美元預(yù)計(jì)會(huì)重新走強(qiáng)。

By choosing not to let the renminbi strengthen against the softer dollar now — which wouldhappen if the Chinese currency was held steady against the basket — the People’s Bank isleaving more room for the renminbi to partially follow the greenback higher in future withoutlosing too much competitiveness.

在美元較疲軟的現(xiàn)階段，通過(guò)選擇不讓人民幣對(duì)美元走強(qiáng)——如果人民幣對(duì)一籃子貨幣匯率持穩(wěn)，就會(huì)導(dǎo)致人民幣對(duì)美元走強(qiáng)——中國(guó)央行正為人民幣留出更大空間，未來(lái)可以在一定程度上跟隨美元上漲，而不會(huì)失去太多競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。

Mr Minikin’s view stems from his perception that China is in reality steering a “middle path”between maintaining a stable trade-weighted rate and a stable rate against the dollar.

米尼金的觀點(diǎn)源于他的一個(gè)看法，即中國(guó)實(shí)際上在沿著一條“中間路線”航行，它介于維持穩(wěn)定的貿(mào)易加權(quán)匯率與維持穩(wěn)定的兌美元匯率之間。

“When you get big moves in the dollar’s value, they are reflecting that in some way in the[renminbi’s] fix, but not in a way to completely prevent it feeding through into [the trade-weighted] value,” he says.

他表示：“如果美元匯率出現(xiàn)大幅波動(dòng)，他們將以某種方式把它反映到人民幣中間價(jià)上，但又不會(huì)完全阻止它傳導(dǎo)至貿(mào)易加權(quán)匯率。”

“I think it’s still in transition, the idea that they have jumped directly to manage against thebasket hasn’t been borne out by these moves,” says Mr Minikin, who believes this period oftransition could last for several years given the wider world’s continuing obsession with thebilateral dollar rate.

米尼金說(shuō)：“我認(rèn)為人民幣匯率機(jī)制仍處于過(guò)渡期。這些舉動(dòng)還體現(xiàn)不出他們已經(jīng)直接跳躍到參考一籃子貨幣管理人民幣匯率。”他認(rèn)為考慮到全球市場(chǎng)繼續(xù)執(zhí)迷于人民幣兌美元雙邊匯率，這一過(guò)渡期可能會(huì)持續(xù)數(shù)年。

In reality, the Chinese authorities have always said that while they want the renminbi to bebroadly stable against the basket, this does not entail a hard and fast peg.

事實(shí)上，中國(guó)當(dāng)局一直表示，雖然他們希望人民幣對(duì)一籃子貨幣匯率基本穩(wěn)定，但這并不意味著要牢牢掛鉤。

Instead, movements are supposed to reflect “the dynamic of market supply and demand” inthe “real economy” (the supply and demand dynamics emanating from the activities of“speculators” do not count).

相反，人民幣的波動(dòng)應(yīng)反映出“實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)”中“市場(chǎng)的供求變化”(“投機(jī)者”活動(dòng)引起的供求變化不計(jì)算在內(nèi))。

David Bloom, head of FX research at HSBC, believes the renminbi’s recent moves do reflect apartial transition towards a more market-oriented currency, as well as a desire to create moreuncertainty in the minds of traders.

匯豐(HSBC)外匯研究主管戴維•布盧姆(David Bloom)認(rèn)為，人民幣近期波動(dòng)確實(shí)反映出其匯率制度在一定程度上正朝著更市場(chǎng)化的方向過(guò)渡，同時(shí)反映出中國(guó)當(dāng)局希望在交易者心中建立更多不確定性。

“Don’t think they are going to micromanage [the renminbi’s rate]. They will keep us guessing abit and that’s what you have to do in financial markets,” Mr Bloom says.

布盧姆說(shuō)：“不要以為他們會(huì)對(duì)(人民幣匯率)進(jìn)行微管理。他們會(huì)讓我們一直猜來(lái)猜去，而這正是我們?cè)诮鹑谑袌?chǎng)里不得不做的事。”

Despite this, Mr Minikin believes there is “every chance” the renminbi will ultimately settle ataround the 100 level against the basket, compared with its current level of 98.05.

盡管如此，米尼金還是認(rèn)為人民幣對(duì)一籃子貨幣匯率指數(shù)“很可能”最終落在100左右，目前為98.05。

The 100-mark is the level the renminbi closed at on December 31 2014, when the InternationalMonetary Fund thought it was about fair value in trade-weighted terms.

100是2014年12月31日人民幣收盤(pán)時(shí)的水平，當(dāng)時(shí)國(guó)際貨幣基金組織(IMF)認(rèn)為這是以貿(mào)易加權(quán)計(jì)人民幣的公允價(jià)值。

However, given the uncertainty the renminbi’s ructions cause for markets worldwide, heargues there is merit in Beijing adopting a more explicit FX regime to avoid anymisunderstandings.

但是，考慮到人民幣波動(dòng)給全球市場(chǎng)造成的不確定性，米尼金認(rèn)為北京方面應(yīng)采取更明確的外匯制度，以避免產(chǎn)生任何誤解。

“Singapore has been more explicit. It allows for 2 per cent swings of the trade-weighted indexaround the central rate. That is the sort of thing we are perhaps moving towards,” he sayshopefully.

他滿懷希望地說(shuō)：“新加坡已經(jīng)采取了更加明確的制度，允許貿(mào)易加權(quán)匯率圍繞軸心點(diǎn)有2%的波動(dòng)，這正是我們可能前進(jìn)的方向。”