評估中國經(jīng)濟形勢需做實地考察

Charles Evans, president of the Federal Reserve Bankof Chicago, picked a good week to visit Hong Kong.Not only is the city preparing for Rugby Sevensweekend — one of the biggest parties in the worldsporting calendar. He also came just as a paperfrom the International Monetary Fund saidpolicymakers needed to factor emerging marketdevelopments increasingly into their decisions. Chinaand Hong Kong should expect an upturn in visits.

芝加哥聯(lián)邦儲備銀行(Chicago Fed)行長查爾斯•埃文斯(Charles Evans)選了很合適的一周來造訪香港?，F(xiàn)在香港正準備迎接周末的七人欖球賽(Rugby Sevens)——全球體育日程上最大的盛會之一。埃文斯抵達香港之際，還正好趕上國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)發(fā)布報告指出，政策制定者越來越有必要在做決策時將新興市場的動態(tài)考慮進來。料想來中國內(nèi)地和香港的訪客應(yīng)該會越來越多。

“You can do the monetary policy job without travelling and getting the first-hand experience,but I do find it useful,” Mr Evans told the Financial Times this week.

埃文斯本周向英國《金融時報》表示：“你不旅行、不獲得一手經(jīng)驗，也能制定出貨幣政策，但我發(fā)現(xiàn)旅行真的很有用。”

The IMF outlined China’s rising influence clearly enough. Its financial integration with the restof world was expected to accelerate, the paper said, and its financial influence overseas wouldprobably catch up with its economic prowess.

IMF足夠清晰地概述了中國日益增長的影響力。IMF在報告中指出，預(yù)計中國將會加快與全球其他國家的金融一體化，它在海外的金融影響力很可能將趕上其經(jīng)濟實力。

Market participants might say this is priced in. Since last August’s surprise 1.9 per centcurrency devaluation, China has frequently set the global market mood.

市場參與者可能會說，這已經(jīng)反映在價格當中。自去年8月人民幣意外貶值1.9%以來，中國常常左右全球市場情緒。

It has not yet usurped the US, however, because China is mostly considered a risk factor, not apotential source of positive news. US news and data have the power to raise as well as lowersentiment.

然而，它還取代不了美國，因為中國主要被視為一個風險因素、而非利好消息的潛在來源。美國的新聞和數(shù)據(jù)既能改善市場情緒，也能打擊市場情緒。

Yet unlike passing risks, such as Greece’s many near-collapses, China is becoming a stapleinput. Asian and European markets take their opening cue not just from closing levels in NewYork but also from Chinese news flow.

但與希臘多次接近崩盤等暫時性風險不同的是，中國正成為一個標配的風險輸入源。亞洲和歐洲市場開盤時，不僅從紐約的收盤水平、也從中國的新聞流中獲得指引。

According to the IMF paper, more than a third of the changes in developed market returns canbe traced to spill-overs from emerging markets. This holds for both stocks and currencies.

IMF的報告顯示，發(fā)達市場回報率的變化中，逾三分之一可追蹤至新興市場的溢出效應(yīng)。股票和外匯市場的情況均是如此。

Trade linkages explain between 10 and 20 per cent of this EM spillover. Rising marketintegration is responsible for a further 30 to 40 per cent. Beyond that the IMF said thevariables it had studied could not fully explain the growing links. More study on this effect iscertainly needed.

這種新興市場溢出效應(yīng)有10%至20%可以通過貿(mào)易聯(lián)系得到解釋。市場一體化程度加深又解釋了30%至40%。IMF表示，就其余部分而言，它研究的變量無法完全解釋這種日益增長的聯(lián)系。對這種效應(yīng)的影響做更多研究無疑很有必要。

In the case of China direct links are still at an early stage. Foreigners own less than 2 per centof its bond market, which is the third-largest in the world, and about the same of its stockmarket. Beijing is about to open the bond markets to foreigners and MSCI, the index provider,has revived talks on adding mainland shares to its benchmarks. The renminbi, whileinternationalising rapidly, is still used in just 2 per cent of payments globally.

就中國而言，直接聯(lián)系仍處于早期階段。外國人占中國債券市場(全球第三大債券市場)的份額不足2%，占其股票市場的份額也差不多。中國政府即將向外國人開放其債券市場，而指數(shù)提供商MSCI明晟已重提將A股納入其基準股指的話題。人民幣盡管迅速國際化，但在全球支付中所占比例仍然只有2%。

That all points to the fact that January’s worldwide market meltdown, prompted by fears overChina, was more about mood than hard metrics. It was fear — and one not, so far, borne out byany marked worsening in Chinese data.

這全都表明一個事實，即今年1月因圍繞中國的擔憂而出現(xiàn)的全球性市場下跌更多的是情緒，而非確鑿數(shù)據(jù)所致。它是擔憂造成的，而這種擔憂迄今沒有得到中國數(shù)據(jù)顯著惡化的佐證。

After months of soft readings, manufacturing numbers last week showed a slight pick-up,hitting their highest levels in months. Investors paid the price: the offshore renminbi, animportant mechanism for weak-China bets, just finished its best quarter in more than threeyears.

在經(jīng)過幾個月的疲弱表現(xiàn)后，上周的制造業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)略有回升，觸及數(shù)月最高。投資者付出了代價：離岸人民幣匯率剛剛結(jié)束3年多以來表現(xiàn)最佳的季度——離岸人民幣是看跌中國的重要手段。

This week two bank heads spoke up in China’s defence. Credit Suisse’s Tidjane Thiam pointedout that growth of between 6.5 and 7 per cent, as targeted by Beijing, was still far better thananywhere else. HSBC’s Stuart Gulliver called on investors to avoid assuming that the slowreform rate meant looming difficulties.

本周，兩位銀行掌門人發(fā)聲為中國辯護。瑞士信貸(Credit Suisse)首席執(zhí)行官提賈尼•蒂亞姆(TidjaneThiam)指出，6.5%至7%的增速(中國政府設(shè)定的目標值)仍遠高于其他任何國家。匯豐(HSBC)行政總裁歐智華(Stuart Gulliver)呼吁投資者不要認為改革速度緩慢就意味著迫在眉睫的困境。

What he called some observers’ “pessimism” over China suggests that there is one link thatneeds improving: understanding elsewhere, particularly among western markets, of on-the-ground activity in China. A senior US investment banker, in Hong Kong this week for one ofthe conferences timed to coincide with the Sevens tournament, attributed this gap to theproblems of applying US practices to China.

這表明有一個環(huán)節(jié)需要改善：其他地區(qū)(特別是西方市場)對中國實際情況的理解。一位美國高級投資銀行家將這種理解不足，歸咎于把美國的慣例套用到中國身上。他本周在香港參加會議，會議時間特意安排在七人欖球賽這個時候。

“The data are difficult to sift through — and we love data in the US — particularly the hedgefunds,” he said.

他表示：“數(shù)據(jù)很難說得通，而在美國，我們喜歡數(shù)據(jù)，對沖基金尤其如此。”

Hong Kong fills with investors, bankers, executives and the odd policymaker for the Sevens. MrEvans, who does not follow rugby, is leaving before the tournament begins. No one could arguewith a straight face that a weekend of partying and sport was the best way to gatherinformation on China. But more visits would be a starting point.

眼下香港聚集著許多打算觀看七人欖球賽的投資者、銀行家、公司高管，還來了一位不打算觀賽的政策制定者。埃文斯不關(guān)注橄欖球，他將在比賽開始前離港。沒有人可以一本正經(jīng)的辯稱，一個周末的聚會和觀賽是收集關(guān)于中國的信息的最佳方式。但更多人前來造訪開了一個頭。

China’s impact on global markets is evolving too fast for mere number-crunching to keep up.

中國對全球市場的影響演變得太快，僅僅分析數(shù)據(jù)是無法跟上形勢的。