美股牛派人士不懼高估值

After seven years of stock markets climbing ever upwards, investors found a new reason to buy in November: the shock election of Donald Trump.

在股市不斷攀升七年后，投資者在去年11月找到了一個買股票的新理由：唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)令人震驚的獲選。

One oft-repeated anecdote is how the billionaire investor Carl Icahn left Mr Trump’s victory party to buy US stocks. A few days later Stanley Druckenmiller, who earlier in the year told a conference for fellow hedge fund managers to “get out of the stock market”, announced he had sold all of his gold on election night and liked sectors of the stock market tied to economic growth.

被再三提及的軼事之一，就是億萬富翁投資者卡爾•伊卡恩(Carl Icahn)如何離開特朗普的勝利陣營去購買美國股票。幾天后，斯坦利•德魯肯米勒(Stanley Druckenmiller)宣布他已經(jīng)在大選之夜賣掉了手上所有黃金，并看好與經(jīng)濟增長掛鉤的股票市場板塊，而去年早些時候他曾在一次對沖基金經(jīng)理會議上號召“離開股市”。

Republican control of the executive and legislative branches of the Federal government will mean tax cuts, infrastructure spending and higher interest rates, in the snap market assessment of a jumble of campaign promises and nominations set to produce the richest cabinet in history.

共和黨對聯(lián)邦政府行政和立法部門的掌控，將意味著減稅、基礎設施支出以及利率上調(diào)，與此同時，市場在對特朗普的一系列競選承諾和任命提名進行快速評估，這些提名將產(chǎn)生有史以來最富有的內(nèi)閣。

The shift sparked one of the biggest post-election rallies since at least 1952, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac. The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 of small capitalisation stocks have all hit fresh highs since November 8.

根據(jù)Stock Trader’s Almanac的數(shù)據(jù)，投資者態(tài)度轉變激發(fā)了至少是1952年以來最大的市場反彈。標準普爾500指數(shù)(S&P 500)、道瓊斯工業(yè)平均指數(shù)(Dow Jones Industrial Average)、納斯達克綜合指數(shù)(Nasdaq Composite)以及小盤股羅素2000指數(shù)(Russell 2000)均在11月8日后創(chuàng)下新高。

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury, meanwhile, jumped from a low of 1.32 per cent in July to more than 2.5 per cent, as bond investors contemplate faster economic growth and higher rates ahead.

與此同時，由于債券投資者預計未來經(jīng)濟增長加速、利率升高，10年期美國國債收益率從7月1.32%的低點跳升至2.5%以上。

Yet is it too much, too soon, for a stock market many had judged to be expensive? 但是，對于一個曾被很多人判定估值過高的股市來說，這是否太過而且為時過早呢?

“We are cautious because gains have come so fast. In the first 100 days, will we have a clear plan for all the chatter on fiscal spending and tax cuts? If we don’t, the market will get skittish,” says David Mazza, head of ETF and mutual fund research at State Street Global Advisors.

道富環(huán)球投資管理有限公司(State Street Global Advisors)交易所交易基金(ETF)和共同基金研究主管大衛(wèi)•馬扎(David Mazza)表示：“我們謹慎是因為收益來得太快。我們能否在頭一百天里，就圍繞財政支出和稅收減免的所有爭論形成一個清晰的計劃?如果我們做不到，市場將出現(xiàn)不安情緒。”

The question does not just matter for US investors. Japan’s Topix index has matched the post-election leap of the Russell 2000, as investors anticipate a strong dollar will boost the country’s exporters.

這個問題不僅影響到美國投資者。日本的東證指數(shù)(Topix)與羅素2000指數(shù)一樣在美國大選后出現(xiàn)暴漲，投資者預計美元走強將提振日本的出口商。

Meanwhile, emerging markets have slumped. A strong dollar makes it harder for developing countries and companies to service hard currency debts, and has tended to be associated with weaker prices for commodity exports.

與此同時，新興市場出現(xiàn)下滑。強勁的美元令發(fā)展中國家和企業(yè)更難以償還美元債務，而且往往與大宗商品出口價格走弱相關聯(lián)。

Then there is Mr Trump’s antitrade rhetoric. David Donabedian, chief investment officer at Atlantic Trust, says: “There are some unquantifiable risks that may come out of the new administration that are not so positive. The whole issue of trade policy, protectionism and diplomatic policy toward China is a huge deal and a complete unknown at this point.”

然后是特朗普的反貿(mào)易言論。Atlantic Trust首席投資官大衛(wèi)•多納伯迪安(David Donabedian)表示：“新政府可能帶來一些不那么積極的、無法量化的風險。貿(mào)易政策、保護主義和對華外交政策的整個問題事關重大，而且眼下還完全未知。”

Protectionism, even if it does not impede growth, also suggests a potential shift in the economy which highlights what may be an under-appreciated aspect of the stock market boom: most US-listed companies have not been thriving.

保護主義——即使不會阻礙增長——也暗示了美國經(jīng)濟的潛在轉變，這突出了美國股市繁榮中一個可能未得到充分認識的問題：大多數(shù)美國上市公司并不興旺。

“The average profitability of the average listed business is quite poor,” says Andrew Lapthorne, quantitative strategist for Société Générale.

法國興業(yè)銀行(Société Générale)量化策略師安德魯•拉普索恩(Andrew Lapthorne)表示：“上市公司的平均盈利能力相當差。”

Performance of the S&P 500 is dominated by about 100 very large companies. When profits are set against the value of a company’s assets, the so-called return on equity for the top five listed companies in each industry is double that of the rest (see chart).

標普500的表現(xiàn)由約100家大企業(yè)主導。各行業(yè)前五大上市公司的股本回報率是剩余企業(yè)的兩倍(見圖表)。

In a sense the effect is similar to that often said to have propelled Mr Trump into office, a great number of Americans left behind by globalisation while the elite has thrived. It may be as true for businesses as it is for Midwestern metalworkers.

從某種意義上說，這種情況類似于經(jīng)常被說成推動特朗普上任的因素——大量的美國人被全球化甩在后面，精英們卻飛黃騰達。不論是企業(yè)，還是中西部金屬工人，這一點可能都成立。

Corporate indebtedness has also been rising, which impacts valuations. A company’s enterprise value includes both its net debt and its market capitalisation, and this figure can then be compared to a measure of profits known as ebitda — earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation.

企業(yè)債務也在不斷攀升，從而影響到估值。一家公司的企業(yè)價值(EV)包括其凈負債和市值，可以將其與利息、稅項、折舊及攤銷前盈利(EBITDA)進行比較。

On such an EV/ebitda basis, “the US stock market has only been this expensive during three or four months of the tech bubble”, says Mr Lapthorne.

基于EV/ebitda比值，拉普索恩表示：“美國股市的估值只有在科技泡沫中的三、四個月時間里這么高過。”

What many investors focus on is earnings growth, which quietly resumed in the third quarter after a five-quarter streak of declines. Profit growth provides a fundamental underpinning to rising stock markets, and Wall Street analysts may soon start raising estimates for 2017 to account for fiscal stimulus.

許多投資者關注的是盈利增長，在經(jīng)歷連續(xù)五個季度下跌后，盈利增長于去年第三季度悄然恢復。利潤增長為股市上揚提供了根本支撐，華爾街分析師在分析財政刺激時可能很快會開始上調(diào)有關2017年的預期。

Still, more increases to interest rates are expected from the Federal Reserve next year, which at the very least is likely to support the US currency. “The earnings recession has ended but guess what? We are going to start to hear from companies hurt by the stronger dollar,” Mr Mazza says.

不過，預計美聯(lián)儲(Fed)今年將進行更多加息，這至少很有可能對美元構成支撐。馬扎說：“盈利衰退已經(jīng)結束，但你猜怎么著?我們將開始聽到企業(yè)受美元走強的損害。”

And earnings growth is even more pressing to justify valuations in an environment of higher interest rates, particularly when the assumption appears to be Mr Trump can make good on his pledge of stimulative policy.

在利率上升的環(huán)境下，要想證明估值合理，盈利增長將更加緊迫，尤其是假設特朗普能夠兌現(xiàn)刺激政策的承諾。

BlackRock, for example, remains cautious. “It does feel that there is a lot of work that needs to be done in the first half of 2017 to meet current expectations,” says Kate Moore, chief equity strategist at BlackRock. “The market has gotten a little excited — there is probably room for a little consolidation.”

比如貝萊德(BlackRock)就持謹慎態(tài)度。貝萊德首席股票策略師凱特•摩爾(Kate Moore)表示：“我確實感到，要想達到當前預期，2017年上半年需要完成很多工作。市場已經(jīng)有點興奮了，或許有些許調(diào)整的空間。”