人民幣匯率創(chuàng)比較大雙日漲幅

China’s renminbi has made its biggest-ever two-day gain as strong data and tight liquidity in offshore markets caught out China bears and pushed the dollar lower around the world.

人民幣匯率創(chuàng)下有史以來(lái)最大的雙日漲幅。強(qiáng)勁的經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)和離岸市場(chǎng)流動(dòng)性吃緊令看空中國(guó)者猝不及防，并推動(dòng)美元相對(duì)各幣種全線走低。

The offshore renminbi rallied as much as 2.6 per cent against the dollar to Rmb6.7853 for its strongest level since early November. As recently as Tuesday the renminbi was at a record low of Rmb6.9895.

離岸人民幣兌美元匯率的漲幅高達(dá)2.6%，漲至1美元兌6.7853元人民幣，為去年11月初以來(lái)的高點(diǎn)。而就在周二，人民幣相對(duì)美元還處于1美元兌6.9895元人民幣的創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄低點(diǎn)。

“China helps the dollar retreat,” said Hans Redeker, strategist at Morgan Stanley, who noted there were large gains too for emerging market currencies including the Brazilian real and the South African rand. He added: “However, the biggest move compared to recent volatility has been experienced in renminbi markets.”

摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)策略師漢斯•雷蒂克(Hans Redeker)表示：“中國(guó)助推了美元的貶值。”他指出，包括巴西雷亞爾和南非蘭特在內(nèi)的新興市場(chǎng)貨幣也呈現(xiàn)大幅上漲。他還表示：“不過(guò)，相對(duì)于近期的波動(dòng)，最大的行情還是出現(xiàn)在人民幣市場(chǎng)。”

Bets on renminbi weakness had risen in recent weeks as the currency slid steadily last month to near the notable Rmb7 level against the dollar.

上月，人民幣匯率穩(wěn)步下滑，逼近1美元兌7元人民幣關(guān)口。在這一背景下，最近幾周有越來(lái)越多的人押注人民幣走低。

China has been burning through its foreign exchange reserves in a bid to curb the pace of the reminbi’s decline — which was widely expected to increase this month when Chinese citizens’ annual $50,000 foreign exchange limit was reset.

為抑制人民幣匯率下跌的速度，中國(guó)近期一直在大肆消耗其外匯儲(chǔ)備。人們普遍預(yù)期，隨著中國(guó)公民每年5萬(wàn)美元的購(gòu)匯額度于本月開(kāi)始重新計(jì)算，人民幣貶值的步伐會(huì)加快。

Traders said a combination of strong service sector data and reports of further curbs on capital outflows by Beijing earlier this week had sapped the bearish mood while the surprise rally was exacerbated by falling liquidity in the offshore renminbi market.

交易員表示，強(qiáng)勁的服務(wù)業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)，再加上本周早些時(shí)候有關(guān)中國(guó)政府進(jìn)一步抑制資本外流的報(bào)道，大大削弱了市場(chǎng)的看空情緒。而離岸人民幣市場(chǎng)流動(dòng)性的不斷下滑，助長(zhǎng)了這波令人意外的反彈行情。

Renminbi-denominated deposits held in Hong Kong — by far the biggest renminbi centre offshore — fell 5 per cent to Rmb627.6bn ($90bn) in November to stand more than a quarter lower than their levels a year earlier.

去年11月，香港的人民幣存款減少5%，至6276億元人民幣(合900億美元)，同比降幅超過(guò)四分之一。香港是遙遙領(lǐng)先的最大人民幣離岸中心。

“Renminbi weakness has been the most consensus trade to start the year — and with good reason — but liquidity in this market keeps getting lower and that just makes it more vulnerable,” said Mansoor Mohi-uddin, strategist at RBS. “I don’t think the underlying weaker trend has changed, but these moves will have made people betting on that thinking about one-way risk.”

蘇格蘭皇家銀行(RBS)策略師曼蘇爾•莫希-烏丁(Mansoor Mohi-uddin)表示：“押注人民幣走低是今年開(kāi)年以來(lái)最無(wú)看法分歧的交易策略，其理由也很充分。然而，這個(gè)市場(chǎng)的流動(dòng)性一直在萎縮，這就讓這個(gè)策略愈發(fā)脆弱。我不認(rèn)為人民幣潛在的走弱勢(shì)頭已經(jīng)改變，但上述行情會(huì)讓押注這一趨勢(shì)的人考慮一下單向押注的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。”

Total assets in offshore renminbi fell 17 per cent globally last year to Rmb2.16tn, according to analysts at Standard Chartered, with the sharpest decline in deposits, down 22 per cent to Rmb1.17tn.

根據(jù)渣打銀行(Standard Chartered)的數(shù)據(jù)，去年全球離岸人民幣資產(chǎn)總額下滑17%，至2.16萬(wàn)億元人民幣。其中，人民幣存款的降幅最大，減少了22%，至1.17萬(wàn)億元人民幣。

The decline in offshore liquidity has limited investor appetite to short the renminbi by raising the costs of doing so. On Thursday the cost of borrowing renminbi overnight in Hong Kong more than doubled to hit its highest level in a year at 38.35 per cent compared with its normal levels between 1 and 2 per cent.

離岸流動(dòng)性的降低抬高了做空人民幣的成本，從而抑制了投資者做空的興趣。周四，香港人民幣隔夜拆借成本翻了一番以上，達(dá)到38.35%，為一年來(lái)的最高水平。該利率的正常水平只有1%到2%。