華爾街重拾“動物精神”

Demonstrators were camped outside Goldman Sachs’ headquarters in Lower Manhattan for a second day yesterday, as the investment bank unveiled its fourth-quarter earnings. Some were dressed in monster masks, protesting the slew of appointments of senior Goldman people to the new government of Donald Trump — in spite of his campaign-trail pledge to “drain the swamp.”

近日，在高盛(Goldman Sachs)公布第四季度利潤之際，示威者在這家投行位于曼哈頓下城的總部外連續(xù)第二天扎營抗議。部分示威者頭戴怪物面具，抗議多名高盛高管獲得唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)的新政府的任命——盡管他在競選期間曾誓言要“排干沼澤”(drain the swamp)。

But inside the bank, things are looking better than they have done in a while. Return on equity edged up to 11.4 per cent on an annualised basis, marking the second quarter in a row of returns above the roughly 10 per cent threshold between creating and destroying value for shareholders.

但在高盛內(nèi)部，情況看上去比前一段時期更好。股本回報率按年率計算小幅攀升至11.4%，標志著回報率連續(xù)兩個季度高于10%上下這個區(qū)分為股東創(chuàng)造還是摧毀價值的分水嶺。

But it is not just Goldman. All over Wall Street, animal spirits are beginning to return, helped by promises of more vigorous growth under Mr Trump, and prospects of regulatory relief after years of intense oversight and ever-tougher standards on capital and liquidity.

但有此表現(xiàn)的并不只是高盛。在特朗普有望開啟更強勁增長和監(jiān)管放松的前景的推動下，整個華爾街的動物精神正開始回歸。此前多年，資本和流動性面臨高強度監(jiān)管和越來越嚴苛的標準。

Capital markets revenues during the quarter for the big five US banks were up 16 per cent from a year earlier, according to Compass Point, a research house. Fixed-income sales and trading was a particular hotspot, up 63 per cent.

根據(jù)研究機構(gòu)Compass Point的數(shù)據(jù)，美國五大銀行最新報告季的資本市場收入同比增長了16%。固定收益產(chǎn)品銷售和交易尤其火爆，飆升63%。

“We feel as front-footed about our franchise as we ever have,” said Harvey Schwartz, Goldman’s chief financial officer, on a call with analysts. Clients had been gaining in confidence from the second half of 2016 onwards, he said, expecting “stronger” fiscal policy from the US and tighter monetary policy.

高盛首席財務(wù)官哈維•施瓦茨(Harvey Schwartz)在面向分析師的電話會議上表示：“我行從來沒有像現(xiàn)在這樣對業(yè)務(wù)充滿信心。”他說，客戶的信心自2016年下半年以來一直在增強，他預期美國將實行“更強有力的”財政政策，而貨幣政策將會收緊。

Goldman’s daily average value-at-risk, a measure of how much it could lose on a given day, crept up to $61m, from a post-crisis low of $57m in the third quarter. (In the aftermath of the crisis it was more than $200m). “I’d say there was increased optimism around the world,” said Mr Schwartz, noting abundant capital and liquidity on Goldman’s balance sheet. “To the extent that there is demand, we can respond to it.”

高盛的日均在險價值——衡量其在一個交易日可能遭受的最大虧損——已從去年第三季度的后危機時期最低點5700萬美元升至6100萬美元。(金融危機爆發(fā)后曾超過2億美元)。“我認為，世界各地的樂觀情緒都在上升，”施瓦茨說。他還特別提到了高盛資產(chǎn)負債表上充裕的資本和流動性。“只要有需求，我們都可以作出回應(yīng)。”

This was typical stuff from Goldman, several shades stronger than remarks from other senior executives such as James Gorman, chairman and chief executive of Morgan Stanley, which reported a day earlier. But each of the big five US banks made encouraging noises on the trading outlook and said that pipelines for investment banking activities — mergers and fundraising — looked promising, after an indifferent end to the year.

這是典型的高盛風格，比業(yè)內(nèi)其他高管的言論——如一天前報告業(yè)績的摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)董事長兼首席執(zhí)行官詹姆斯•戈爾曼(James Gorman)——樂觀了幾分。但美國五大銀行都對交易前景發(fā)出了令人鼓舞的聲音，它們表示，在經(jīng)歷去年底的低潮期后，投行業(yè)務(wù)活動(并購和募資)的管道看上去相當光明。

“We like the momentum that we’ve got going into 2017,” said John Gerspach, chief financial officer of Citigroup, yesterday. The bank, the fourth largest in the US by assets, said that fourth-quarter revenues from trading bonds and stocks were up 36 per cent and 15 per cent, respectively, from a year earlier.

花旗(Citigroup)首席財務(wù)官約翰•戈斯帕奇(John Gerspach)說：“進入2017年之際，我們喜歡當前的這種勢頭。”按資產(chǎn)規(guī)模計算為美國第四大銀行的花旗表示，第四季度來自債券和股票交易的收入同比分別增長了36%和15%。

All the big banks had a brighter period in fixed-income sales and trading, a part of their businesses that has been squeezed in recent years by curbs on market-making and patchy client activity. At Morgan Stanley, for example, fixed-income trading revenues came in at $1.47bn, barely off the third-quarter pace of $1.48bn, during a traditionally slower time of the year.

在固定收益產(chǎn)品銷售和交易方面，各大銀行都經(jīng)歷了一段較好的時期，這部分業(yè)務(wù)近年一直受到抑制做市和客戶活動不活躍的擠壓。例如，摩根士丹利第四季度固定收益產(chǎn)品交易收入為14.7億美元，僅略低于第三季度的14.8億美元，而傳統(tǒng)上這塊業(yè)務(wù)在第四季度比較清淡。

To some analysts, it is a sign that the post-crisis tide is turning. The overall fixed-income fee pool has been cut in half since 2009, as interest rates have languished near zero and investors have been disinclined to reshuffle portfolios. But the big banks stand to benefit, as central banks around the world — led by the US Federal Reserve — move to more traditional monetary-policy settings.

在一些分析師看來，這種跡象表明，后危機時代的大潮正在轉(zhuǎn)向。自2009年以來，固定收益?zhèn)蚪鹂傤~減少了一半，原因是利率長期處在接近于零的水平，而投資者在重組投資組合方面比較嚴謹。但隨著世界各地央行在美聯(lián)儲(Federal Reserve)的帶領(lǐng)下轉(zhuǎn)向更傳統(tǒng)的貨幣政策姿態(tài)，大型銀行必將獲益。

“Stronger [fixed-income] trading should not necessarily be seen as a fluke,” said Chris Kotowski, an analyst at Oppenheimer. “Perhaps we are in the early stages of witnessing this trend.”

“更強勁的(固定收益)交易不應(yīng)想當然地被視為暫時現(xiàn)象，”奧本海默公司(Oppenheimer)分析師克里斯•科托夫斯基(Chris Kotowski)說，“或許我們正在見證這一趨勢的早期階段。”

On regulation, executives naturally shied away from questions from analysts as to what particular rules they would like to see expunged, and when.

在監(jiān)管方面，投行高管自然而然地回避了分析師提出的關(guān)于他們希望廢止哪些具體規(guī)則、以及何時廢止的問題。

But Mr Schwartz said that, eight years on from the depths of the crisis, it was time to review the “incredible body of work” put in place by regulators. He listed capital ratios mandated by the Basel committee, the annual stress-testing process introduced by the Fed, and new global standards on liquidity.

但高盛的施瓦茨說，距金融危機最嚴重的時候已過去8年，是時候重審監(jiān)管者出臺的“令人難以置信的作品”了。他列舉了巴塞爾委員會(Basel committee)規(guī)定的資本比率、美聯(lián)儲實施的年度壓力測試，以及新的全球流動性標準。

“There should be some degree of pause and stepping back,” he said, taking his last earnings call before replacing the government-bound Gary Cohn as co-president and co-chief operating officer. “This seems like a very reasonable point in time to assess; we obviously got some great benefits but is there a cost in economic growth?”

“應(yīng)該有某種程度的停頓和后退，”他在最后一次財報電話會議上表示;他即將替代到政府任職的加里•科恩(Gary Cohn)出任高盛聯(lián)席總裁兼聯(lián)席首席運營官。“這似乎是一個非常合理的評估時間點;我們顯然得到了一些巨大好處，但經(jīng)濟增長是否為此付出了代價?”

The banks are still up against a similar cast of characters at the big US regulatory agencies, and squeezed by structural forces such as a steady shift to electronic markets. Ken Usdin, an analyst at Jefferies, noted that the weak fourth-quarter of 2015 gave Wall Street banks some “really easy” hurdles to clear.

各銀行仍要面對美國各大監(jiān)管機構(gòu)的一批類似的人物，并受到結(jié)構(gòu)性力量(比如向電子市場的穩(wěn)步轉(zhuǎn)移)的擠壓。杰富瑞(Jefferies)分析師肯•烏斯丁(Ken Usdin)指出，疲軟的2015年第四季度給華爾街銀行帶來了一些“極為容易”的基數(shù)。

For all the talk of better times at Goldman, the bank’s full-year figures still showed a 9 per cent fall in total net revenues, to $30.6bn. Among the ten key revenue items on the 2016 income statement, just two (debt trading and debt underwriting) were rising.

雖然有這么多關(guān)于高盛時來運轉(zhuǎn)的言論，但該行的全年數(shù)據(jù)仍顯示總凈收入下降9%，至306億美元。在2016年損益表的10大關(guān)鍵收入項中，只有兩項(債務(wù)交易和債券承銷)實現(xiàn)增長。