勒龐能促成法國退歐嗎？

A victory by far-right leader Marine Le Pen in the French elections in May is seen by many investors as potentially fatal for the euro and even the EU itself.

在許多投資者看來，如果極右翼領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人馬琳•勒龐(Marine Le Pen)在5月的法國選舉中獲勝，對歐元、甚至歐盟(EU)而言都可能是致命的。

While polls suggest she will lose the election in the second round, her support has been inching up, leading to a spike in French bond yields as investors sell debt.

盡管民意測驗(yàn)顯示，她將在第二輪投票中落敗，但她的支持率一直節(jié)節(jié)上升，導(dǎo)致投資者在拋售債券、法國債券收益率飆升。

Market concerns centre on fears that, if elected, she would push ahead with her economic campaign promises: drastically renegotiating France’s membership of the EU, including pulling out of the euro, and then holding a referendum on the new relationship.

市場人士的主要擔(dān)憂是，如果勒龐在選舉中獲勝，她將落實(shí)自己在經(jīng)濟(jì)方面的競選承諾：徹底就法國的歐盟成員國身份進(jìn)行重新談判，包括退出歐元區(qū)，然后就法國與歐盟的新關(guān)系舉行全民公投。

However, according to economists, political scientists and constitutional experts, implementing these promises could prove difficult.

然而，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家、政治學(xué)家和憲法專家表示，這些承諾履行起來可能很困難。

Could Le Pen radically reform the EU from the inside?

勒龐可能從內(nèi)部對歐盟進(jìn)行徹底改革嗎?

National Front officials insist France is a top-tier EU member and cannot be ignored. It would be possible to secure reforms to the euro, free movement of people, or primacy of EU law.

國民陣線(National Front)官員們堅(jiān)稱，法國是歐盟的最重要成員國之一，不可以被忽視。促成針對歐元、人員自由流動(dòng)或者歐盟法律至高無上地位的改革，是有可能辦到的。

“France is a founding member — we are not like the UK or Greece. When we stamp our feet, people are going to listen,” said one senior party figure.

“法國是歐盟的創(chuàng)始成員國——我們跟英國或希臘不一樣。當(dāng)我們跺腳時(shí)，人們會聽我們說話，”一名國民陣線重要人物表示。

Others scoff at the idea she would succeed in fundamentally changing France’s relationship with the EU. They point to the failure of the UK to win any meaningful reforms before a Brexit vote and to the radical nature of FN demands — the end of the common currency and free movement of people.

也有人對認(rèn)為勒龐將成功地從根本上改變法國與歐盟關(guān)系的想法嗤之以鼻。他們指出，英國在退歐投票前就未能爭取到對歐盟的任何有意義的改革;他們還指出，國民陣線的要求帶有激進(jìn)性——他們要求終結(jié)共同貨幣，中止人員自由流動(dòng)。

Since France’s EU partners are unlikely to agree to dismantle the bloc, any referendum would be likely to become a plebiscite on leaving the EU.

鑒于法國在歐盟的伙伴國不大可能同意解散這一集團(tuán)，任何全民公決都有可能成為是否退出歐盟的投票。

Could Ms Le Pen hold a referendum on ‘Frexit’? 勒龐能夠舉行一場“法國退歐”全民公投嗎?

It is not impossible, but it is unlikely.

不是沒有可能，但可能性不太大。

France has a written constitution that states that “the Republic is part of the European Union”. So a “Frexit” would require a constitutional change.

法國有一份成文憲法，其中規(guī)定，“法蘭西共和國是歐盟的一部分”。所以，“法國退歐”將需要修改憲法。

Under Article 89, any constitutional change needs to be proposed by the government, not the president. Then it has to be approved by both the upper and the lower houses and then either by public vote in a referendum or by a majority of 60 per cent of Congress.

根據(jù)法國憲法第89條，修憲需要由政府、而不是總統(tǒng)來提議。然后，修憲必須得到議會上院和下院的批準(zhǔn)，接下來要么由公民投票通過，要么以六成多數(shù)獲得議會通過。

This means that, if she wanted to call a referendum, a President Le Pen would need a majority in the June legislative elections. “She would need a huge majority,” said Philippe Cossalter, a law professor at Saarlandes University.

這意味著，如果當(dāng)上總統(tǒng)后的勒龐想召集一次全民公投，那么她將需要在6月的立法選舉中贏得多數(shù)席位。“她將需要贏得過半席位，”薩爾大學(xué)(Saarlandes University)法學(xué)教授菲利普•科撒勒特(Philippe Cossalter)說。

The FN needs to win 289 out of 577 parliamentary seats in June for a majority, up from two at the moment. The party only has two seats in the 348-seat Senate, where elections for half the chamber are due in September.

國民陣線需要在6月的立法選舉中贏得國民議會全部577個(gè)席位中的289個(gè)才能過半數(shù)，目前該黨僅擁有兩個(gè)席位。該黨目前在348席的參議院里僅擁有兩個(gè)席位，今年9月，參議院將舉行半數(shù)議員的換屆選舉。

“A Le Pen presidency without a majority in the house would be unlikely to result in a referendum on the EU,” said Guillaume Menuet, an economist a Citigroup. He argues that the best-case scenario for the FN is winning 100 seats in parliament.

“如果勒龐當(dāng)選總統(tǒng)，卻未在議會取得多數(shù)席位，那么最終就不大可能舉行法國退歐公投，”花旗集團(tuán)(Citigroup)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家紀(jì)堯姆•默尼埃(Guillaume Menuet)說。他認(rèn)為，國民陣線最理想的結(jié)果也不過是在國民議會贏得100個(gè)席位。

Is there a way round this?

是否有辦法繞開這個(gè)障礙?

Under Article 11 of the French constitution, the president can unilaterally call a referendum, although — in theory — such a vote cannot change the constitution. In 1962, however, Charles de Gaulle succeeded in changing the constitution after invoking a referendum under Article 11.

法國憲法第11條規(guī)定，總統(tǒng)可以單方面召集全民公決，不過——在理論上——這一投票不能更改憲法。然而，1962年，查爾斯•戴高樂(Charles de Gaulle)成功地依據(jù)第11條召集全民公決，更改了憲法。

Senior FN officials have said that Ms Le Pen would try to do the same thing. But Article 11 has since been modified by Article 61, requiring a sign-off by the constitutional court before a vote takes place. According to Bruno Cavalier, chief economist at Oddo, Ms Le Pen would find herself “in front of the French constitutional courts” if she tried to use Article 11. The courts would be likely to block such an action, he said.

國民陣線高級官員表示，勒龐將努力如法炮制。但后來，憲法第61條對第11條進(jìn)行了修訂，要求全民公決必須事先獲得憲法法院的批準(zhǔn)。投行奧多(Oddo)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家布魯諾•卡瓦利耶(Bruno Cavalier)表示，如果勒龐想使用第11條的話，她將發(fā)現(xiàn)自己“面對法國的憲法法院”。他說，憲法法院可能會阻止這種做法。

Any other snags?

還有其他障礙嗎?

Even if Ms Le Pen could organise a vote, polls suggest that the French people do not want to leave the euro. A Eurobarometer poll in October found that 53 per cent of people thought that the euro was a “good thing for their country” compared with 37 per cent who thought it was a “bad thing”.

即便勒龐能夠組織起來一場投票，民意調(diào)查顯示，法國民眾并不想退出歐元區(qū)。去年10月歐洲民意調(diào)查中心(Eurobarometer)進(jìn)行的一次民調(diào)發(fā)現(xiàn)，53%的人認(rèn)為歐元“有利于法國”，而認(rèn)為歐元對法國“有害”的人只占37%。

Since then, Ms Le Pen has tried to soften the message. She has suggested a “common currency” — similar in structure to the European Currency Unit, or Ecu, that preceded the euro — that would exist in parallel with the franc. However, this would still be tantamount to the end of monetary union.

自那以來，勒龐開始嘗試軟化語氣。她提議推出一種與法郎并存的“共同貨幣”——在結(jié)構(gòu)上類似于歐元之前的歐洲貨幣單位(Ecu)。然而，這將仍相當(dāng)于終結(jié)歐洲貨幣聯(lián)盟。

Some analysts think financial markets will go into a tailspin if Ms Le Pen is elected, regardless of the nuances of French constitutional law.

有些分析師認(rèn)為，只要勒龐在選舉中獲勝，金融市場就將陷入混亂，這一結(jié)果不會因法國憲法的細(xì)節(jié)而改變。

Harvinder Sian, an analyst at Citi, said: “If she wins, the market will go into panic mode,” prompting an “existential crisis” for the EU and potential “leakage of liquidity” from the banks.

花旗分析師哈文德•希安(Harvinder Sian)表示，“如果她獲勝，市場將進(jìn)入恐慌模式”，使歐盟面臨一場“關(guān)系生死存亡的危機(jī)”，并可能導(dǎo)致各銀行“流動(dòng)性漏出”。

If she lost a referendum, what happens?

如果她在全民公決中失敗，會發(fā)生什么?

Ms Le Pen has said she would resign if she lost an EU referendum. Leaving the euro is central to her economic policy. She argues that a devalued franc would restore the competitiveness of French workers. EU rules would also prevent her from implementing many of her other economic policies, which include “intelligent protectionism” and giving preference to French workers over foreign ones.

勒龐表示，如果在退歐公投中失敗，她將辭職。退出歐元區(qū)是她的經(jīng)濟(jì)政策的核心內(nèi)容。她主張，貶值的法郎將恢復(fù)法國工人的競爭力。歐盟規(guī)則也將妨礙她執(zhí)行她的許多其他經(jīng)濟(jì)政策，其中包括“聰明的保護(hù)主義”，還有在法國工人和外國工人中優(yōu)先前者。

What about the rest of her domestic programme?

她其余的國內(nèi)政策計(jì)劃呢?

The French constitution gives significant powers to the president, particularly in foreign policy and defence. But for the day-to-day business of running the country, the vast majority of decisions by a French president need parliamentary approval.

法國憲法授予總統(tǒng)重大的權(quán)力，尤其在對外政策和防務(wù)方面。但在國家的日常治理方面，法國總統(tǒng)的絕大部分決定都需要得到國民議會的批準(zhǔn)。

Again, her probable lack of a parliamentary majority would make it difficult to push through her wider agenda — which includes slashing the number of immigrants and beefing up the police force.

她很可能拿不到國民議會多數(shù)席位，這一點(diǎn)將再次使她很難推進(jìn)自己的整個(gè)議程——包括減少移民和加強(qiáng)警力。

There have been three occasions in France’s postwar history where voters chose a parliament that opposed the president, under François Mitterrand and Jacques Chirac. Most of these “cohabitations” did not last long.

在戰(zhàn)后法國歷史中，選民有三次選出了與總統(tǒng)對立的國民議會——在弗朗索瓦•密特朗(François Mitterrand)和雅克•希拉克(Jacques Chirac)當(dāng)總統(tǒng)的時(shí)候。這些“共治”大多不持久。

A prime minister can fall back on article 49:3, used several times by the current government to push through reform packages without parliament’s approval. But that would also be seen a symbol of failure. Ms Le Pen last year said that the use of 49:3 was an “admission of weakness”.

政府總理可以訴諸憲法第49條第3段的規(guī)定，現(xiàn)任法國政府已多次利用該規(guī)定，在未得到國民議會批準(zhǔn)的情況下推進(jìn)改革計(jì)劃。但是，這也將被視為失敗的標(biāo)志。勒龐去年表示，利用該規(guī)定是“承認(rèn)軟弱”。