中國對美國牛肉“很有胃口”

Donald Trump this month hailed a deal to resume US beef exports to China as an early win from trade talks with Beijing.

本月，唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)將一項恢復(fù)美國對華牛肉出口的協(xié)議譽(yù)為對華貿(mào)易談判取得的初步勝利。

“China just agreed that the US will be allowed to sell beef, and other major products, into China once again,” the US president tweeted. “This is REAL news!”

“中國剛剛答應(yīng)允許美國再次向中國出售牛肉和其他重要產(chǎn)品，”這位美國總統(tǒng)在Twitter上發(fā)帖稱：“這是真新聞!”

But prime American steak is already on the menu at many mainland restaurants despite a ban in place since a 2003 case of mad cow disease: there is a flourishing grey market in secondary imports from Hong Kong, where the curbs did not apply.

不過，盡管2003年美國爆發(fā)瘋牛病后中國出臺禁令禁止進(jìn)口美國牛肉，但優(yōu)質(zhì)美國牛排早已出現(xiàn)在中國內(nèi)地許多餐廳的菜單上：這是因為存在一個繁榮的、從香港二次進(jìn)口的灰色市場，香港并不適用這項禁令。

“That’s a secret,” said a waiter at New York Style Steak & Burger in Shanghai when asked how it sourced its meat.

“這是個秘密，”上海New York Style Steak & Burger的一名侍者在被問及該店牛肉的采購地時說。

Cuts destined for China could make up half of US beef exports to Hong Kong, according to Chenjun Pan, an analyst at Rabobank — a figure that would represent more than $340m of meat a year.

運(yùn)往中國內(nèi)地的牛排，可能占美國對香港牛肉出口的一半，荷蘭合作銀行(Rabobank)分析師潘晨軍(Chenjun Pan)表示，這相當(dāng)于每年3.4億美元的牛排。

The official revival of US beef exports to China stands to benefit big producers such as Tyson, which have missed out on a boom in Chinese beef demand. Chinese imports of the meat have soared in recent years, reaching $2.5bn last year — up 700 per cent on 2012 — as rising incomes boost meat consumption while relatively inefficient domestic producers struggle to keep up with demand.

美國正式恢復(fù)對華牛肉出口，將有利于泰臣(Tyson)等大型生產(chǎn)商。這些生產(chǎn)商錯過了中國牛肉需求的高速增長。近年來，中國肉類進(jìn)口額大幅增長，去年達(dá)25億美元，較2012年高了700%。中國人的收入增長提振了肉類消費，而國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)商的生產(chǎn)效率相對較低，難以跟上市場需求。

Several Chinese importers told the Financial Times they were keen to start buying premium grain-fed US beef as soon as possible.

一些中國進(jìn)口商告訴英國《金融時報》，他們很樂意盡快開始采購優(yōu)質(zhì)的美國谷飼牛肉。

Although most of China’s imports are of lower-priced grass-fed beef from Brazil, Uruguay and Australia, US beef has long been perceived as higher quality, and it is this that has fuelled the grey market trade via Hong Kong.

雖然中國進(jìn)口的大部分牛肉是來自巴西、烏拉圭和澳大利亞的價格較低的草飼牛肉，但美國牛肉長期以來一直被認(rèn)為品質(zhì)更高，正是這一點推動了經(jīng)香港進(jìn)口美國牛肉的灰色市場貿(mào)易的發(fā)展。

Zhou Wenjie, a buyer at an import business based in Jiangsu province, said the prevalence of smuggling would set a ceiling on future prices. US beef is expected to sell for higher prices than those charged for Australian meat, which retails online from about Rmb80 ($11) per kilogramme, but lower than those for Canadian beef, which starts at roughly Rmb120, he estimated.

江蘇省一家進(jìn)口企業(yè)的采購員周文杰(音譯)表示，走私活動大行其道會為未來的價格設(shè)定上限。預(yù)計，美國牛肉的售價會高于澳大利亞牛肉(網(wǎng)上零售價最低為每公斤80元人民幣左右)，但低于加拿大牛肉(最低為每公斤120元人民幣左右)。

The existence of the grey channel “means the mainland has a lot of demand,” Henry Huang, managing director at beef importer JOC Australia, told the Financial Times. “US beef is acceptable in China. I think the price of high-quality grass-fed beef will crash a little bit, because the US has very good advantage in high-quality cuts.”

灰色渠道的存在“意味著中國內(nèi)地的需求很大”，牛肉進(jìn)口商JOC Australia的董事總經(jīng)理Henry Huang告訴英國《金融時報》，“美國牛肉在中國受到好評。我認(rèn)為，優(yōu)質(zhì)草飼牛肉的價格會略微下滑，因為美國在優(yōu)質(zhì)牛排方面擁有很大優(yōu)勢。”

Yu Xuerong, chairman of food importer Shanghai Paradise Garden, said his company would “certainly import US beef”. He said that it was popular before the ban, and that he was in contact with Cargill, the world’s biggest agricultural commodities merchant.

食品進(jìn)口商上海天萃庭健康食品有限公司(Shanghai Paradise Garden)董事長余學(xué)榮表示，他的公司“肯定會進(jìn)口美國牛肉”。他說，禁令出臺前美國牛肉很受歡迎，他正在與全球最大的農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易商嘉吉(Cargill)進(jìn)行接觸。

China’s opening to the US has been in the works for a long time, with an initial announcement in the final months of the Obama administration. But analysts warn that it may take many more years for a large-scale beef supply chain from the US to China to mature.

中國對美國牛肉開放市場已經(jīng)籌備很長時間了，中方最初宣布開放市場的消息時，奧巴馬(Obama)政府離任期結(jié)束還剩幾個月。不過，分析師警告稱，一條從美國到中國的大型牛肉供應(yīng)鏈可能還需要好多年才能成熟。

In a possible harbinger of what awaits the US, Ireland announced the relaunch of beef exports to China in 2015 only to meet a series of bureaucratic hurdles, and the trade in beef has yet to start flowing.

2015年，愛爾蘭宣布重啟對華牛肉出口，結(jié)果遭遇了一系列官僚障礙，牛肉出口至今尚未啟動。這預(yù)示著美國可能會遭遇的情形。

Meanwhile, specifics such as tariffs and standards for producers have yet to be decided.

另一方面，關(guān)稅和生產(chǎn)商標(biāo)準(zhǔn)等具體細(xì)節(jié)尚未敲定。

“We can evaluate the scope of this potential . . . only after we see the details of the import conditions,” said Joel Haggard of the US Meat Export Federation.

“只有在看到進(jìn)口條件的細(xì)節(jié)之后，我們才能評估這種潛力有多大，”美國肉類出口協(xié)會(US Meat Export Federation)的何嘉德(Joel Haggard)說。