投資者有必要重審新興市場資產(chǎn)

It is risk-on time for emerging markets. Last week’s sovereign bonds from Argentina and Russia confirm it. Both came from creditors not usually regarded as safe or secure, yet both were amply oversubscribed and both have traded strongly on secondary markets.

現(xiàn)在對于新興市場來說是追逐風(fēng)險的時候。上周阿根廷和俄羅斯的主權(quán)債券證實了這一點。這兩種國債均由通常不被認(rèn)為安全或可靠的國家發(fā)行，但卻均獲超額認(rèn)購，且在二級市場表現(xiàn)強勁。

For some observers, such investor enthusiasm is a sure sign that the EM recovery is getting frothy. But there may also be reasons for investors who have tended to view EMs with suspicion to think again about the asset class.

對于一些觀察人士而言，這種投資熱情無疑是新興市場復(fù)蘇出現(xiàn)泡沫的跡象。但對于那些往往以懷疑的態(tài)度審視新興市場的投資者而言，或許也有理由重新思考對這項資產(chǎn)類別的看法。

The EM recovery is not new. It began in January 2016 when, after five years of straight decline, EM currencies began making ground against the US dollar and EM stocks began once again to outperform their developed market peers.

新興市場復(fù)蘇不是新鮮事。新興市場復(fù)蘇始于2016年1月——在連續(xù)5年衰退后，新興市場貨幣開始相對美元升值，新興市場股票開始再次跑贏發(fā)達市場股票。

There are two sides to both stories. EM currency weakness is the flipside of US dollar strength. As the long dollar rally fades, EM currencies must, by necessity, perk up. Likewise equities: with the S&P 500 breaking record highs for so long, regardless of the US economy’s reluctance to really ignite, some investors may have decided to spread some risk into EMs.

兩個故事都有正反兩面。新興市場貨幣疲軟的反面是美元走強。隨著美元長期走強的趨勢減弱，新興市場貨幣必然走強。股票也一樣：考慮到標(biāo)普500(S&P 500)已有那么長的時間處于創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄高位，不論美國經(jīng)濟是不是遲遲未實現(xiàn)真正復(fù)蘇，一些投資者都可能決定把一些風(fēng)險分散到新興市場。

But other changes have taken place. One predates the EM recovery by 15 months, to November 2014. That is when the weight of technology stocks in the benchmark MSCI EM equities index overtook the weight of energy and materials — the commodities stocks that many see as emblematic of emerging markets.

但現(xiàn)在也出現(xiàn)了其他變化。其中一個變化出現(xiàn)在2014年11月，比新興市場復(fù)蘇早15個月。當(dāng)時基準(zhǔn)股指MSCI明晟新興市場指數(shù)(MSCI EM)中科技股的權(quán)重，超過了能源和原材料股的權(quán)重。能源和原材料股所屬的的大宗商品板塊，被很多人視為新興市場的象征。

This transformation has been dramatic. When the commodities supercycle was in full swing, in mid 2008, energy and materials accounted for more than a third of MSCI EM market capitalisation and tech companies just a tenth. Last month, the commodities group was barely an eighth of EM market cap, and tech companies more than a quarter.

這是一次戲劇性的轉(zhuǎn)變。2008年年中，當(dāng)大宗商品超級周期火力全開時，能源和原材料股在MSCI明晟新興市場市值中的權(quán)重超過三分之一，而科技企業(yè)的權(quán)重僅為十分之一。上個月，大宗商品板塊在新興市場市值中的權(quán)重僅為八分之一，科技企業(yè)的權(quán)重超過四分之一。

This should be no surprise. EM tech companies include the Chinese internet trio of Tencent, Alibaba and Baidu and longer-established names such as Hon Hai and TSMC of Taiwan and Samsung Electronics of South Korea. Stocks from those three countries have delivered more than 70 per cent of the gains in the MSCI EM index this year.

這一點也不奇怪。新興市場科技企業(yè)包含中國互聯(lián)網(wǎng)三巨頭騰訊(Tencent)、阿里巴巴(Alibaba)和百度(Baidu)，以及一些更老牌的公司，如臺灣的鴻海(Hon Hai)和臺積電(TSMC)，韓國的三星電子(Samsung Electronics)。今年，這三個地區(qū)的股票對MSCI明晟新興市場指數(shù)上漲的貢獻達到70%以上。

At the other extreme, commodities companies have been slammed by falling prices, not to mention the corruption scandal that has engulfed Petrobras, the Brazilian oil company that together with miner Vale once carried half the São Paulo Bovespa index on its back.

在另一端，大宗商品價格不斷下跌重創(chuàng)大宗商品企業(yè)，更不用提巴西國家石油公司(Petrobras)陷入的腐敗丑聞。該公司和礦商淡水河谷(Vale)曾經(jīng)撐起了巴西圣保羅IBOVESPA指數(shù)的半壁江山。

Accompanying the rise of EM tech has been the enduring strength of consumer discretionary and financials, which together make up more than a third of MSCI EM.

伴隨新興市場科技股崛起的是，非必需消費品股票和金融股持續(xù)表現(xiàn)強勁，它們共同占據(jù)了MSCI明晟新興市場指數(shù)的三分之一以上權(quán)重。

Put it all together, and the asset class looks more like a play on the manufacturing and consumer dynamism currently making Asia the world’s fastest growing region than on the commodities demand from China that drove EM growth in the first dozen years of this century.

放在一起來看，新興市場這一資產(chǎn)類別的重頭戲更像是制造業(yè)發(fā)展和消費活力，而不是中國對大宗商品的需求(這種需求在本世紀(jì)頭十幾年中驅(qū)動了新興市場增長)。制造業(yè)發(fā)展和消費活力目前正在讓亞洲成為全世界增長最快的地區(qū)。

But not so fast. First of all, Asia’s dynamics may not last. While trade within the region has grown strongly, its exports also depend on demand from the US and Europe. While the US consumer is expected to spring to life with every passing day, she has so far failed to do so.

但這話也不能說得太早。首先，亞洲的活力可能無法持久。盡管亞洲內(nèi)部貿(mào)易強勁增長，但其出口也依賴于美國和歐洲的需求。盡管美國有望逐漸恢復(fù)消費活力，但目前為止尚未實現(xiàn)。

More broadly, global trade has disappointed. Data from the CPB World Trade Monitor, a widely respected unit within the Dutch ministry of economic affairs, show a surge in global trade between May 2016 and January this year — strongly positive news for EMs. But the momentum of trade growth has faded this year and the latest CPB data, out last week, show it falling back towards zero.

整體來看，全球貿(mào)易狀況令人失望。荷蘭經(jīng)濟政策分析部(CPB)《全球貿(mào)易監(jiān)控》(World Trade Monitor)的數(shù)據(jù)表明，2016年5月至2017年1月之間，全球貿(mào)易出現(xiàn)增長——這對新興市場來說是個重大利好消息。但今年這種貿(mào)易增長的勢頭已經(jīng)減弱，CPB上周公布的最新數(shù)據(jù)表明，貿(mào)易增長已經(jīng)回落至接近零。CPB是荷蘭經(jīng)濟事務(wù)部(Dutch ministry of economic affairs)的一個廣受尊重的部門。

Nor are EMs free of the commodity curse. Even today, energy and materials companies play a far bigger role in the MSCI EM index than the direct contribution they make to their home countries’ economies. But they also have a powerful multiplier effect on other business sectors.

新興市場也還未擺脫大宗商品的詛咒。即使在如今，能源和原材料企業(yè)在MSCI明晟新興市場指數(shù)中扮演的角色，也遠超它們對本國經(jīng)濟的直接貢獻。但它們還對其他行業(yè)擁有強大的乘數(shù)效應(yīng)。

Adam Slater, chief economist at Oxford Economics, points out that, in the past, falling commodity prices would have been net positive for global growth: the losses suffered in commodity exporting countries would be more than offset by rising consumption and investment in commodity importers.

牛津經(jīng)濟研究院(Oxford Economics)的首席經(jīng)濟學(xué)家亞當(dāng)•斯萊特(Adam Slater)指出，過去大宗商品價格下滑總體來說有利于全球經(jīng)濟增長：大宗商品進口國的消費和投資增長，足以抵消大宗商品出口國承受的損失。

This time, that hasn’t happened. It may be that commodity prices have fallen too far from their peaks and that a host of investments have lost their viability. Consumption seems to have been curtailed by fear of the future in a low interest rate world.

這一次，情況不是這樣。可能的情況是，大宗商品價格較峰值下跌太多，大量投資都失去了可行性。對低利率時代中未來的恐懼，似乎遏制了消費。

This does not mean the EM rally will end now. EM assets were hammered during 2014 and 2015, by the commodities crash and by fear of a hard landing in China. Now, the EM/DM growth differential has reverted to the mean and EMs are again outperforming. But investors should still beware the signs of froth.

這并不意味著新興市場反彈將就此結(jié)束。2014年至2015年，大宗商品價格崩盤以及對中國經(jīng)濟硬著陸的擔(dān)憂，打擊了新興市場資產(chǎn)。如今，新興市場與發(fā)達市場的增長差距回歸均值，新興市場再次跑贏發(fā)達市場。但投資者仍然應(yīng)該留心泡沫出現(xiàn)的跡象。