全球銀行需警惕中國企業(yè)海外收購熱潮

When China ordered the country’s banks last Thursday to check the “systemic risk” posed by some of their acquisitive “large enterprises” (conglomerate HNA Group, insurer Anbang, consumer group Fosun and property developer Dalian Wanda), some listed companies connected to them plunged in value.

上周四，當(dāng)中國監(jiān)管部門要求各銀行排查部分熱衷于收購的“大企業(yè)”(綜合企業(yè)海航集團(tuán)(HNA Group)、保險(xiǎn)商安邦(Anbang)、消費(fèi)品集團(tuán)復(fù)星(Fosun)以及房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)商大連萬達(dá)(Dalian Wanda))構(gòu)成的“系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)”時(shí)，一些與之相關(guān)的上市企業(yè)的股價(jià)大幅下跌。

You might have expected Chinese bank stocks to tumble, too. It was, after all, the banking regulator that blew the whistle, and ordered the lenders to examine exposures to the groups whose big foreign acquisitions they have backed. Yet the share prices of China’s big banks actually rose on Thursday after the regulator’s intervention.

你可能會認(rèn)為中國的銀行股也會下跌。畢竟，是銀行監(jiān)管部門鳴哨，并要求銀行排查對那些得到了銀行支持完成大筆海外收購交易的集團(tuán)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)敞口。不過，在監(jiān)管部門出手干預(yù)后，實(shí)際上中國大型銀行的股價(jià)在周四上漲了。

There may be valid reasons for that. Regulators’ concerns seem to be focused less on the banks’ balance sheets and more on their role facilitating contentious fundraisings from private investors, including through life assurance. The regulator’s probe may also be seen as part of the authorities’ efforts to curb capital outflows — and hence a political tactic rather than a concern about bank stability.

這種情況的出現(xiàn)可能是有原因的。監(jiān)管部門的擔(dān)憂似乎沒那么集中在銀行的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表上，而更側(cè)重于它們?yōu)閺乃饺送顿Y者進(jìn)行有爭議的融資(包括通過人壽保險(xiǎn))提供便利的作用。此次調(diào)查可能也被視為政府遏制資本外流的努力的一部分——因此此舉更像是政治策略，而不是擔(dān)心銀行的穩(wěn)定性。

But that does not mean the breakneck overseas expansion undertaken by groups such as HNA and Anbang is low risk. There are sketchy signs that western banks may have more to worry about than their Chinese peers. A combination of deal data and anecdotal evidence suggests that Deutsche Bank, UBS and JPMorgan are among the global banks with exposure to the most aggressively expansionist Chinese groups.

但這并不意味著海航和安邦等企業(yè)在海外飛速擴(kuò)張的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)低。已經(jīng)有粗略的跡象顯示，西方銀行可能比中國的銀行更需要擔(dān)憂。交易數(shù)據(jù)加上坊間證據(jù)表明，德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)、瑞銀(UBS)和摩根大通(JPMorgan)均處于對中國最具擴(kuò)張野心的集團(tuán)存在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)敞口的全球銀行之列。

The exposure takes two forms. First is the investment by the Chinese groups in western banks and financial institutions. Take HNA. The Chinese company, which began life as a regional airline, has spent $40bn-plus on more than 100 deals over the past 30 months. It shot to prominence when it acquired a 25 per cent stake in Hilton hotels. More recently it has moved into financial sector assets. In May it bought New Zealand’s biggest finance company, UDC. Only a few months earlier it struck what may be its boldest — and most systemically significant — deal of all, buying a near-10 per cent stake in Deutsche, Germany’s biggest bank.

風(fēng)險(xiǎn)敞口有兩種形式。第一種是中國企業(yè)對西方銀行和金融機(jī)構(gòu)的投資。以海航為例。這家中國企業(yè)最開始是一家地區(qū)性航空公司，它在過去30個(gè)月里斥資400多億美元完成了超過100項(xiàng)交易。該集團(tuán)因收購希爾頓酒店(Hilton) 25%的股份而一舉成名。最近海航開始涉足金融行業(yè)資產(chǎn)。5月，它收購了新西蘭最大的金融公司UDC。僅僅數(shù)月前，海航剛敲定了可能是其最大膽——也最具有系統(tǒng)重要性——的交易，即收購德國最大的銀行德意志銀行接近10%的股份。

The Chinese group does not appear to own the stake. Under the terms of a complicated “collar” and “total return swap”, the arrangement gives the financier of the deal, UBS, control when the stock falls below a certain level. Still, HNA basically has a dominant position in the shareholder register. It is a nasty twist on the concept of the anchor investor — something companies often like to have as a reassuring buttress. HNA is anything but that for Deutsche. Bizarrely, the bank’s chief executive John Cryan, has never met his biggest shareholder. And given the nature of the financing deal (and HNA’s string of debt-fuelled acquisitions), the stake looks like a large share overhang that could be dumped at any minute.

海航似乎并不擁有股份。在復(fù)雜的“領(lǐng)口策略”和“總收益互換”條款的規(guī)定下，當(dāng)股價(jià)下跌至一定水平后，該安排將把控股權(quán)交給該交易的融資方，也就是瑞銀。不過，海航在股東名冊上基本占據(jù)首要位置。這是對錨定投資者(企業(yè)往往希望擁有錨定投資者作為可靠支持)概念的嚴(yán)重扭曲。海航對于德意志銀行來說絕不是錨定投資者。怪異的是，該銀行的首席執(zhí)行官約翰•克賴恩(John Cryan)從未見過他最大的股東。鑒于該筆融資交易(以及海航通過舉債完成的一系列交易)的本質(zhì)，這筆股份看起來就像是隨時(shí)可能被拋售的大筆股票。

Financiers say other banks narrowly escaped a similar plight. Senior figures at HNA and Anbang have made informal approaches to Italy’s UniCredit and UK-listed Standard Chartered in recent months, they say.

金融人士表示，還有其他銀行險(xiǎn)些落入了類似境地。他們稱，近幾個(gè)月海航和安邦的高層人物以非正式的方式接觸了意大利聯(lián)合信貸銀行(UniCredit)和在英國上市的渣打銀行(Standard Chartered)。

A second risk for global banks stems from the credit risk attached to the Chinese groups’ expansion. Such exposures are impossible to chart with accuracy. Aside from UBS’s involvement in the Deutsche transaction, the Swiss bank has done several other Chinese acquisition financing deals, as have dozens of others. Bankers say JPMorgan has taken a lead in backing HNA in particular.

全球銀行面臨的第二大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)來自中國企業(yè)擴(kuò)張帶來的信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。此類風(fēng)險(xiǎn)敞口不可能用圖表準(zhǔn)確表現(xiàn)出來。除了參與收購德銀股份的交易，瑞銀還完成了另外幾筆中國企業(yè)收購的融資交易，其他數(shù)十家銀行也是如此。銀行人士表示，摩根大通尤其在支持海航方面一馬當(dāng)先。

Syndicated debt deals, which see originating banks disseminate loans to others, appear rare in Chinese acquisition finance. According to Dealogic, there have been only 32 syndicated loan deals relating to HNA, Anbang and Fosun in the past five years, despite hundreds of debt-backed acquisitions by the groups. That suggests much of the financing remains on banks’ balance sheets. One senior banker defends the risk, saying the loans are backed by collateral, typically the stock whose purchase the loan financed and that groups in question seem, for now, to have the support of the Chinese state. Some loans have already shown signs of stress. Swissport, acquired by HNA in 2015, recently breached debt covenants.

在中國企業(yè)的收購融資中，銀團(tuán)貸款——牽頭行向銀團(tuán)內(nèi)的其他銀行分銷貸款——似乎很少見。Dealogic的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，過去5年，盡管海航、安邦和復(fù)星進(jìn)行了數(shù)百筆債務(wù)支撐的收購，但與這些集團(tuán)相關(guān)的銀團(tuán)貸款交易只有32筆。這表明，大部分貸款仍在銀行的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表上。一位為此類風(fēng)險(xiǎn)辯護(hù)的資深銀行家稱，這些貸款由抵押品擔(dān)保，抵押品通常是貸款融資所支持收購的股份，而且目前來看，受質(zhì)疑的這些集團(tuán)似乎得到了中國政府的支持。部分貸款已經(jīng)顯示出了承壓的跡象。2015年被海航收購的瑞士空港(Swissport)最近出現(xiàn)了債務(wù)違約。

The moral here is that Chinese companies and their financing are no longer insular. MSCI’s recent inclusion of Chinese stocks in global indices was a reminder of that. The world’s banks and their investors should take heed.

這意味著，中國企業(yè)及其融資不再只關(guān)乎中國。MSCI明晟最近將中國A股納入其全球指數(shù)是對此的一個(gè)提醒。全球銀行及其投資者應(yīng)提高警惕。