新任幕僚長(zhǎng)能否穩(wěn)定白宮秩序？

Donald Trump’s decision to further elevate the role of senior US military figures in his administration with the appointment of John Kelly as chief of staff is explicitly aimed at bringing discipline to a White House riven by chaos and infighting.

唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump，上圖右)決定任命約翰•凱利(John Kelly，上圖左)擔(dān)任白宮幕僚長(zhǎng)，這個(gè)進(jìn)一步提升美國(guó)高級(jí)軍官在其政府中職位的決定，顯然旨在讓受混亂和內(nèi)斗困擾的白宮恢復(fù)紀(jì)律。

But whether the former marine corps general will impose order to a freewheeling White House where the president is accustomed to making decisions on the basis of little consultation depends in large part on whether he can convince Mr Trump himself to change.

然而，這位前海軍陸戰(zhàn)隊(duì)上將是否將讓自由散漫的白宮恢復(fù)秩序?這在很大程度上取決于他能否說服特朗普自己做出改變。這位總統(tǒng)已習(xí)慣于在幾乎不征求他人意見的情況下做出決定。

Military figures are trained to take orders from the commander-in-chief rather than challenge him, yet those who know Mr Kelly say he exhibits a plain-speaking authority that should give him a better chance of imposing order than the departing chief of staff, Reince Priebus.

軍官的天職是從這位三軍總司令那里接受命令，而不是挑戰(zhàn)他，然而那些了解凱利的人說，他講話直率，有權(quán)威，這應(yīng)會(huì)讓他比其前任雷恩斯•普里巴斯(Reince Priebus)更有可能恢復(fù)秩序。

But Chris Whipple, author of 'The Gatekeepers', a book on White House chiefs of staff, said Mr Kelly faced a “Herculean” task in a factionalised environment with rival advisers such as Stephen Bannon and communications chief Anthony Scaramucci enjoying personal channels to the president.

然而，講述白宮歷屆幕僚長(zhǎng)故事的《守門人》(The Gatekeepers)一書的作者克里斯•惠普爾(Chris Whipple)表示，凱利面臨“艱巨”任務(wù)，因?yàn)樗媾R分裂的環(huán)境，互相爭(zhēng)斗的顧問(例如史蒂夫•班農(nóng)(Steve Bannon)和白宮通訊聯(lián)絡(luò)辦公室主任安東尼•斯卡拉穆奇(Anthony Scaramucci))有著與特朗普交流的私人渠道。

“The most important thing right now is that Kelly has got to be able to tell Trump what he doesn’t want to hear. If he can’t do that then there is a good chance that the Trump presidency is effectively over,” Mr Whipple said.

惠普爾表示：“目前最重要的事情是凱利必須能對(duì)特朗普說他不愿意聽的話。如果他無法做到這點(diǎn)，那么特朗普的總統(tǒng)任期很有可能就實(shí)際上結(jié)束了。”

Mr Priebus saw his authority steadily deteriorate from early in the administration as he failed to ensure that decisions ran via his office. Alongside vice-president Mike Pence, Mr Priebus was the administration’s most prominent interlocutor with Capitol Hill, enjoying close relations with key figures including Paul Ryan, the House speaker.

在特朗普政府中，普里巴斯早就開始目睹自己的權(quán)威在不斷削減，因?yàn)樗茨艽_保總統(tǒng)的決定由他的辦公室經(jīng)手。與副總統(tǒng)邁克•彭斯(Mike Pence)一道，普里巴斯是特朗普政府內(nèi)部與國(guó)會(huì)打交道的最主要的對(duì)話者，他與包括眾議院議長(zhǎng)保羅•瑞安(Paul Ryan)在內(nèi)的重要人物都有著密切關(guān)系。

But with the White House consumed with Russia investigations and the president seemingly incapable of steering a clear policy path, those ties failed to coalesce in any legislative victories — as exemplified by the collapse of healthcare reforms on Thursday. Mr Priebus himself told CNN on Friday night that there was a need to press the “reset button”.

然而，在白宮陷入通俄調(diào)查以及特朗普似乎無法繪制一條清晰的政策路線之際，這些關(guān)系未能促成任何立法勝利，上周四醫(yī)療改革的失敗就證明了這點(diǎn)。上周五夜間，普里巴斯告訴CNN，有必要按下“重置按鈕”。

Mr Kelly, who has served as secretary of homeland security, does not have the same political connections that Mr Priebus was supposed to bring, but Michael Strain, a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, said this was not a concern of itself.

凱利此前擔(dān)任國(guó)土安全部部長(zhǎng)，他沒有普里巴斯的政治人脈，但美國(guó)智庫(kù)美國(guó)企業(yè)研究所(American Enterprise Institute)的學(xué)者邁克爾•斯特蘭(Michael Strain)表示，這并不是問題。

“What is needed is an internal process in the White House and some better co-ordinated strategy with the congressional leadership and individual members,” he said. “A four-star general has a lot of experience managing complex organisations.”

“現(xiàn)在需要的是梳理白宮內(nèi)部程序，以及拿出與國(guó)會(huì)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層及單個(gè)議員的更好協(xié)調(diào)策略，”他表示，“一位四星上將在管理復(fù)雜組織方面有豐富經(jīng)驗(yàn)。”

Mr Trump, who attended New York Military Academy in his youth, has relied heavily on military figures in constructing his administration, among them James Mattis, his defence secretary, and Lt Gen HR McMaster, his national security adviser.

特朗普曾在青年時(shí)期就讀紐約軍事學(xué)院(New York Military Academy)，在構(gòu)建他的內(nèi)閣時(shí)一直嚴(yán)重依賴軍界要人，其中包括他的國(guó)防部長(zhǎng)詹姆斯•馬蒂斯(James Mattis)以及他的國(guó)家安全顧問、陸軍中將赫伯特•雷蒙德•麥克馬斯特(HR McMaster)。

The precedents for using a military man as chief of staff are not necessarily auspicious: former general Al Haig was tasked with trying to hold the White House together during the Watergate scandal. He had an even shorter tenure than Mr Priebus under Richard Nixon’s successor, Gerald Ford.

任命軍官擔(dān)任白宮幕僚長(zhǎng)的先例不一定都是好結(jié)果：前將軍亞歷山大•黑格(Al Haig)的使命是讓白宮在水門事件(Watergate)期間團(tuán)結(jié)一心。他在理查德•尼克松(Richard Nixon)繼任者杰拉爾德•福特(Gerald Ford)擔(dān)任總統(tǒng)期間的任期甚至比普里巴斯還短。

But the president appears to relish being around current and former four-star generals, and there are some encouraging signs that he is willing to listen to them, said Evelyn Farkas, a former deputy assistant secretary of defence who is now at the Atlantic Council. “Having those guys in there reassures me,” she adds.

然而，前美國(guó)國(guó)防部副助理部長(zhǎng)伊芙琳•法卡斯(Evelyn Farkas)表示，特朗普似乎喜歡身邊圍繞著現(xiàn)任和前任四星上將，一些鼓舞人心的跡象顯示，他愿意聽取他們的意見。她補(bǔ)充稱：“有這些人在他身邊我感到放心。”法卡斯目前在美國(guó)大西洋理事會(huì)(Atlantic Council)任職。

What will make matters particularly difficult for Mr Kelly is the family dynamic in the White House, where he inherits chains of communication that are scrambled by the presence of powerful individuals such as Ivanka Trump and her husband Jared Kushner who are immune from the threat of being fired.

對(duì)于凱利而言，讓事情變得尤為棘手的是白宮的家族干政現(xiàn)象，他接手的溝通網(wǎng)絡(luò)遭到一些有勢(shì)力的個(gè)人插手，例如伊萬卡•特朗普(Ivanka Trump)和她的丈夫賈里德•庫(kù)什納(Jared Kushner)，他們不會(huì)受到解雇威脅的影響。

To succeed Mr Kelly will have to show the deft touch of James Baker, the most successful chief of staff in modern times, who flourished under Ronald Reagan in part because he realised the importance of bringing Nancy Reagan onside.

要想成功，凱利必須展示出現(xiàn)代時(shí)期最成功的幕僚長(zhǎng)詹姆斯•貝克(James Baker)那樣的機(jī)敏，貝克在羅納德•里根(Ronald Reagan)擔(dān)任總統(tǒng)期間大有作為的部分原因是他意識(shí)到獲得南希•里根(Nancy Reagan)支持的重要性。

A further test of Mr Kelly’s authority will be whether he ensures top aides such as Mr Scaramucci report through him. Mr Kelly should also demand the right to sign off on Mr Trump’s tweets, said Mr Whipple, given the president’s habit of making announcements on the hoof via social media.

進(jìn)一步考驗(yàn)凱利權(quán)威的將是，他能否確保斯卡拉穆奇等高級(jí)助手通過他向總統(tǒng)匯報(bào)?；萜諣柋硎荆b于特朗普有通過社交媒體即興發(fā)布聲明的習(xí)慣，凱利還應(yīng)要求獲得批準(zhǔn)特朗普推文的權(quán)利。

Michael O’Hanlon, a senior fellow at Brookings who dealt with Mr Kelly when the general was head of the US military’s southern command, said he had shown an aptitude working on US relations with Colombia for building alliances and fostering cross-border and cross-agency relations.

曾在凱利擔(dān)任美軍南方司令部司令時(shí)與其打過交道的布魯金斯學(xué)會(huì)(Brookings Institution)高級(jí)研究員邁克爾•奧漢侖(Michael O'Hanlon)表示，為打造聯(lián)盟和促進(jìn)跨境和跨機(jī)構(gòu)關(guān)系而致力于美國(guó)與哥倫比亞關(guān)系時(shí)，凱利展示出了能力。

As such, Mr O’Hanlon said Mr Kelly had the raw materials to succeed as chief of staff. Much depended on whether Mr Trump was willing to change his style, however, and here there was less reason for optimism.

因此，奧漢侖表示，凱利擁有成為一位成功幕僚長(zhǎng)的素質(zhì)。然而，他的成功將在很大程度上取決于特朗普是否愿意改變他的風(fēng)格，在這一點(diǎn)上，就沒那么樂觀了。

“As long as the Bannons and Millers are empowered by the president, Kelly could fail just as much as the next guy despite his impressive abilities,” he said, referring to Mr Bannon and fellow adviser Stephen Miller. “He has all the ingredients that maximise the odds of success, but those are not shaped by him but fundamentally by the president.”

“只要總統(tǒng)賦予班農(nóng)和米勒權(quán)力，盡管凱利能力超群，他仍有可能失敗，”他表示，他指的是班農(nóng)和同樣擔(dān)任顧問的斯蒂芬•米勒(Stephen Miller)，“他擁有將成功幾率最大化的所有潛質(zhì)，但這些不是由他決定的，從根本上說是由特朗普決定的。”