東歐國家擔心俄軍演成為“特洛伊木馬”

They are still more than two weeks away, but Russia’s Zapad 2017 war games — potentially the country’s largest European exercises since the cold war — are creating jitters across eastern Europe.

雖然距今還有兩周多時間，但俄羅斯“西方2017”(Zapad 2017，Zapad在俄語中是“西方”的意思)軍事演習——可能是該國自冷戰(zhàn)以來在歐洲舉行的最大規(guī)模演習——正在東歐地區(qū)制造緊張情緒。

For seven days from September 14, Russia will conduct large-scale military manoeuvres spanning western Russia, its Baltic enclave of Kaliningrad and its ally Belarus — which borders three Nato members, Poland, Latvia and Lithuania.

自9月14日起的一周時間，俄羅斯將在俄羅斯西部、其位于波羅的海旁的飛地加里寧格勒州以及盟國白俄羅斯(與波蘭、拉脫維亞和立陶宛這三個北約(NATO)成員國相鄰)舉行大規(guī)模軍事演習。

While Moscow claims fewer than 13,000 troops will take part in Zapad 2017, western capitals expect the number could reach six figures.

盡管莫斯科方面聲稱將有不到1.3萬名士兵參加“西方2017”軍演，但西方國家預計參演人數可能達到六位數。

Concerns are understandable. The exercises are taking place with east-west relations at their most strained since the fall of the Berlin Wall almost three decades ago and shortly after the US imposed new sanctions over Moscow’s alleged interference in its presidential election.

西方的擔憂是可以理解的。此次演習舉行之際，正值東西方關系處于自將近30年前柏林墻倒塌以來最為緊張的時刻，而且不久前美國剛就莫斯科方面涉嫌干涉美國總統大選一事采取了新制裁。

Russia has also used drills in the past as cover for real military action. A “snap” exercise in 2014 masked the launch of Moscow’s annexation of Crimea.

過去俄羅斯也曾利用軍演為真正的軍事行動作掩護。2014年，莫斯科方面以一次“臨時”演習為掩護，發(fā)起了吞并克里米亞的行動。

The head of Ukraine’s national security council said last week it was “not excluded” that Russia could use Zapad 2017 to create strike forces for the “military invasion” of Ukraine. Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania, the three former Soviet Baltic republics, have voiced similar fears.

烏克蘭國家安全委員會負責人上周表示，“無法排除”俄羅斯利用“西方2017”演習來創(chuàng)造“軍事入侵”烏克蘭的打擊部隊的可能性。曾為蘇聯加盟共和國的波羅的海三國拉脫維亞、愛沙尼亞和立陶宛表達了類似擔憂。

Ben Hodges, the commanding general of the US army in Europe, has warned the exercise could be a “Trojan horse” to bring Russian soldiers and weapons into Belarus and leave them there. “They say, ‘we’re just doing an exercise’, and then all of a sudden they’ve moved all these people and capabilities somewhere,” he said.

美軍在歐洲的最高指揮官本•霍奇斯(Ben Hodges)警告稱，此次演習可能是一個把俄羅斯士兵和武器帶入并留在白俄羅斯的“特洛伊木馬”(Trojan horse)。他表示，“他們說，‘我們只是在演習’，突然間他們就把所有人和軍事力量都帶到某個地方了。”

Russia dismisses such fears. Grigory Karasin, its deputy foreign minister, countered that “artificial buffoonery over the routine Zapad 2017 exercises is aimed at justifying the sharp intensification of the Nato bloc” along Russia’s borders.

俄羅斯駁斥了此類擔憂。俄羅斯副外長格里戈里•卡拉辛(Grigory Karasin)反駁稱，“圍繞例行軍演‘西方2017’的夸張表演旨在證明(俄羅斯邊境沿線)北約區(qū)域的高度緊張有合理性”。

Based on preparations to date, western officials estimate the exercises will involve nearer 100,000 military personnel rather than the 12,700, as well as 680 pieces of equipment, that Moscow says will be deployed.

根據目前的籌備來看，西方官員預計此次軍演將涉及將近10萬軍事人員、而非莫斯科方面聲稱的1.27萬，此外還將部署680套裝備。

Zapad, which means “west” and refers to Russia’s western military district, is part of a four-year cycle of exercises that rotate through its eastern, central and Caucasus as well as western districts. “Zapad”

(西方)指的是俄羅斯西部軍區(qū)，俄羅斯每年輪流在俄東部、中央、高加索以及西部軍區(qū)舉行軍演，每四年完成一輪，“Zapad”軍演就是其中一部分。

Alexander Golts, an independent Russian military analyst, says previous exercises in this cycle have all deployed 100,000 or more personnel, while Zapad’s geographical scope suggests a “huge concentration of troops”.

俄羅斯獨立軍事分析師亞歷山大•戈爾茨(Alexander Golts)表示，之前的“西方”例行演習全都部署了10萬人或以上的軍事人員，而該演習的地域范圍意味著這是“兵力的高度集中”。

Russia’s general staff are “geniuses” at manipulating an international agreement obliging it to invite European observers to any exercise involving more than 13,000, by holding multiple supposedly separate drills concurrently, he says.

他表示，一項國際協議規(guī)定，俄羅斯必須邀請西方觀察人士觀摩所有涉及1.3萬人以上的演習活動，而俄羅斯總參謀部是投機取巧、規(guī)避這一協議的“天才”——他們于是就同時舉行多場所謂的單獨演習。

Keir Giles, an associate fellow at the UK’s Chatham House think-tank, says: “Put those things together and there are strong grounds for believing this is likely to be a much larger event than the Russian official figures”.

智庫機構英國皇家國際事務研究所(Chatham House)副研究員基爾•賈爾斯(Keir Giles)表示：“把這些事放在一起來看，有充分理由相信此次演習的規(guī)?？赡鼙榷砹_斯官方數據顯示的大得多。

The manoeuvres are clearly designed to send a strong message to Nato, which has strengthened its eastern flank since the 2014 Ukraine crisis by siting four multinational battle groups in Poland and the Baltics.

此次軍演明顯是為了向北約傳達強有力的信息。自2014年烏克蘭危機以來，北約通過在波蘭和波羅的海三國部署四個多國戰(zhàn)斗群，強化了其東翼力量。

But despite the nervousness among Russia’s neighbours, there is less reason to believe the drills could be cover for an attack, say analysts.

但分析人士表示，盡管俄羅斯各鄰國情緒緊張，但沒有太多理由認為此次軍演可能會為軍事襲擊作掩護。

Unlike in 2008, when Russia invaded Georgia days after completing exercises in its Caucasus district, there has been no sign of Moscow laying the political and propaganda groundwork for military action this time.

此次軍演不同于2008年——當時俄羅斯在高加索地區(qū)軍演完成幾天后入侵了格魯吉亞——目前莫斯科方面這次沒有為軍事行動作政治和宣傳鋪墊的跡象。

“The political message delivered by . . . these military drills is ‘hands off’ Russian interests’,” says Fyodor Lukyanov, chairman of Russia’s Council on Foreign and Defence Policy, a Kremlin advisory group. “But there is absolutely no willingness to escalate anything.”

“此次軍演傳達的政治信息……是‘別碰’俄羅斯的利益，”俄羅斯外交與防務政策委員會(Council on Foreign and Defence Policy)主席費奧多爾•盧基揚諾夫(Fyodor Lukyanov)表示，“但絕對沒有讓事態(tài)升級的意愿。”該委員會為克里姆林宮提供咨詢。

Moscow’s mood is “confusion” and “wait-and-see” after the Trump administration confounded its hopes of a sharp improvement in US-Russian relations, says Mr Lukyanov.

盧基揚諾夫表示，在特朗普(Trump)政府讓俄羅斯極大改善俄美關系的希望落空之后，莫斯科方面現在的情緒是“困惑”和“觀望”。

Even leaving equipment in Belarus would need the agreement of Alexander Lukashenko, its autocratic president. But Samuel Charap, a senior political scientist at the Rand Corporation, says Mr Lukashenko is anxious not to make Belarus a target for the west and has resisted pressure in the past to host Russian military infrastructure.

甚至，連把裝備留在白俄羅斯都需要得到其專制的總統亞歷山大•盧卡申科(Alexander Lukashenko)的同意。蘭德公司(Rand Corporation)資深政治學家塞繆爾•查拉普(Samuel Charap)表示，盧卡申科不想讓白俄羅斯成為西方的靶子，并且過去一直頂住壓力、拒絕俄羅斯在白俄羅斯部署軍事設施。

“It takes preparation to permanently base forces in another country. Are they just going to stay in tents?” says Mr Charap.

查拉普稱：“在另一個國家永久駐扎部隊需要作一些準備。他們難道會一直住在帳篷里嗎?”

Jens Stoltenberg, Nato’s secretary-general, criticised both Moscow and Minsk on Friday for failing to meet international commitments to make the exercises transparent.

上周五，北約秘書長延斯•斯托爾滕貝格(Jens Stoltenberg)批評莫斯科和明斯克方面沒有履行對國際社會的承諾，即實現軍演透明化。

But Belarus says it has invited Ukraine, Poland, the Baltic states, Sweden and Norway, plus organisations including the UN and Nato, to send observers. Minsk itself may be aiming to ensure Russia does not try anything unexpected, say analysts.

但白俄羅斯表示，它已邀請烏克蘭、波蘭、波羅的海三國、瑞典和挪威這幾個國家，以及包括聯合國(UN)和北約在內的多個組織派觀察員來觀摩此次軍演。分析人士表示，明斯克方面本身的目的可能是確保俄羅斯不做出意外舉動。

Whether or not they are invited to observe, western governments and militaries will be closely studying the drills, which come after a decade of Russian military reform and investment following its erratic 2008 Georgian campaign, and amid its operations in Ukraine and Syria.

無論是否受邀派出觀察員，西方政府和軍隊都將密切研究此次軍演——在2008年不按規(guī)矩出牌的格魯吉亞行動后，俄羅斯進行了10年的軍事改革和投資，而且此次軍演正值俄羅斯在烏克蘭和敘利亞展開軍事行動。

Moscow’s new “information operations” troops, responsible for cyber warfare and “psy ops”, are expected to take part, as well as the powerful First Guards Tank Army, a second world war and cold war vanguard disbanded in 1998 but reformed in 2014.

莫斯科方面負責網絡戰(zhàn)和心理戰(zhàn)的新“信息作戰(zhàn)”部隊預計將參加此次軍演，強大的“第1近衛(wèi)坦克集團軍”(First Guards Tank Army)——二戰(zhàn)和冷戰(zhàn)時期的先頭部隊，于1988年解散但在2014年重新組建——預計也將參演。

“We’re seeing the Russian military on display in a way that you don’t often see it,” says Mr Charap, “and seeing how they think about contingencies and about potential conflict . . . with Nato.”

“我們將看到俄軍以難得一見的陣容進行展示，”查拉普表示，“并且將看到他們就與北約之間的……突發(fā)事件和潛在沖突有何考慮。”