美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席耶倫：加息不應(yīng)“過(guò)于漸進(jìn)”

Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen said policymakers ought to be careful of “moving too gradually” on monetary policy despite “significant uncertainties” over inflation.

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Federal Reserve)主席珍妮特•耶倫(Janet Yellen)表示，政策制定者應(yīng)該慎防在貨幣政策上“動(dòng)作過(guò)于漸進(jìn)”，盡管在通脹上存在“重大不確定性”。

Ms Yellen, speaking on Tuesday at the annual meeting of the National Association for Business Economics in Cleveland, Ohio, acknowledged that “some key assumptions underlying the baseline outlook could be wrong in ways that imply that inflation will remain low for longer than currently projected”.

耶倫周二在俄亥俄州克利夫蘭舉行的全美商業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)協(xié)會(huì)(National Association for Business Economics)年會(huì)上發(fā)言，承認(rèn)“支撐基線前景預(yù)測(cè)的一些關(guān)鍵假設(shè)可能是錯(cuò)誤的，而這意味著相比當(dāng)前預(yù)測(cè)，通脹將在低位徘徊更久。”

But she cautioned against waiting too long to raise interest rates again, underscoring the signal from the Fed’s latest policy meeting last week that another rate rise may be on the cards before the end of 2017.

但是，她反對(duì)在再次加息之前等待太久，從而加強(qiáng)了美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在上周最新政策會(huì)議上發(fā)出的信號(hào)，即在2017年底之前可能再次上調(diào)利率。

“A gradual approach is particularly appropriate in light of subdued inflation and a low neutral real interest rate, which imply that the [Federal Open Market Committee] will have only limited scope to cut the federal funds rate should the economy be hit with an adverse shock,” she said.

“在通脹低迷、中性實(shí)際利率較低的情況下，漸進(jìn)的做法尤其適當(dāng)，這意味著如果經(jīng)濟(jì)受到不利沖擊，(聯(lián)邦公開(kāi)市場(chǎng)委員會(huì))削減聯(lián)邦基金利率的空間將是有限的，”她表示。

“But we should also be wary of moving too gradually. Job gains continue to run well ahead of the longer-run pace we estimate would be sufficient, on average, to provide jobs for new entrants to the labour force.”

“但是我們也應(yīng)該對(duì)動(dòng)作過(guò)于漸進(jìn)抱有戒心。就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)繼續(xù)保持良好勢(shì)頭，遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超前于我們估計(jì)的、平均而言對(duì)于為勞動(dòng)力隊(duì)伍新加入者提供就業(yè)已經(jīng)充足的較長(zhǎng)期步伐。”

She said that without further modest increases in the federal funds rate over time, there is a risk that the labour market could become overheated, potentially creating an inflationary problem down the road that might be difficult to overcome without triggering a recession.

她表示，如果不隨著時(shí)間的推移進(jìn)一步適度上調(diào)聯(lián)邦基金利率，勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)會(huì)有過(guò)熱的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，可能在未來(lái)某時(shí)釀成一個(gè)通脹問(wèn)題，而這個(gè)問(wèn)題可能難以在不引發(fā)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的前提下克服。

The reason for persistently low inflation has become a matter of intense debate among rate-setters at the Fed. Some of Ms Yellen’s colleagues have offered theories that include structural drags on prices from technology.

通脹持續(xù)低迷的原因已成為美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)利率制定者之間激烈辯論的一個(gè)焦點(diǎn)問(wèn)題。耶倫的某些同事提出了一些理論，包括科技給價(jià)格水平帶來(lái)的結(jié)構(gòu)性抑制。

Ms Yellen has pointed to other reasons for the inflation undershoots in previous years, among them spare capacity in the jobs market after the recession, falling energy prices and an appreciation of the dollar. On Tuesday she said that further idiosyncratic factors, including a dip in telecoms prices, meant that a recent decline in inflation was “probably temporary”.

耶倫曾指出過(guò)去幾年通脹偏低的其他原因，包括經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退過(guò)后就業(yè)市場(chǎng)的富余供應(yīng)、能源價(jià)格下滑以及美元升值。她在周二表示，更多的特殊因素，包括電信服務(wù)價(jià)格下滑，意味著近期通脹下降“很可能是暫時(shí)的”。

As Ms Yellen spoke, the yield on the two-year US Treasury note, which is considered most sensitive to monetary policy, was at its highest point since 2008 at 1.45 per cent, having inched ahead of a peak it reached shortly after last week’s Fed meeting.

耶倫發(fā)表講話(huà)之際，被認(rèn)為對(duì)貨幣政策最敏感的兩年期美國(guó)國(guó)債收益率達(dá)到1.45%，這是自2008年以來(lái)的最高點(diǎn)，高于上周美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)會(huì)議后不久達(dá)到的一個(gè)峰值。

The dollar index, measuring the US currency against a basket of peers, pared its gains slightly before rising back up to 93.16, and stocks were largely steady.

衡量美元相對(duì)于一籃子貨幣匯率的美元指數(shù)最初回吐了部分漲幅，隨后回升至93.16點(diǎn)，股價(jià)基本穩(wěn)定。