2018年科技業(yè)大走勢

If you are wondering what the biggest business stories in the tech world will be next year, forget driverless cars, augmented reality goggles and computers that respond to the human voice.

如果你想知道2018年科技界最大的商業(yè)主題是什么，忘了無人駕駛汽車、增強現(xiàn)實眼鏡和語音控制計算機吧。

Those inventions generate eye-catching headlines, but the main engines of growth for the biggest tech companies in 2018 are ones that have already become a deeply ingrained part of business life: digital advertising, ecommerce and the wholesale move of global IT to the cloud.

這些發(fā)明制造了吸引眼球的熱點新聞，但2018年科技巨頭們的主要增長引擎早已成為商業(yè)生活根深蒂固的一部分，它們分別是數(shù)字廣告、電子商務，以及全球IT界向“云”的集體進軍。

It is always dangerous to put too much faith in extrapolation, but some trends in digitisation are hard to ignore. They are driven by the emergence of a pervasive technology infrastructure and a preference among users for the convenience of digital services. They also reflect the willingness of more businesses to operate on platforms built by companies such as Google, Facebook and Amazon — as well as China’s emerging tech giants Alibaba and Tencent.

過分相信推測向來都是危險的，但數(shù)字化的一些趨勢很難被忽視。無處不在的科技基礎設施和用戶對數(shù)字服務便利的偏好推動了這些趨勢發(fā)展。它們也反映了有越來越多企業(yè)愿意在谷歌(Google)、Facebook、亞馬遜(Amazon)以及中國科技巨頭阿里巴巴(Alibaba)和騰訊(Tencent)等公司搭建的平臺上運營。

Consider advertising. About 40 per cent of global ad spending is currently devoted to digital channels — only a slightly higher proportion than accounted for by TV. The superior targeting and potential for interactivity of digital networks should continue that shift.

先來說廣告，目前全球約40%的廣告支出投向數(shù)字渠道，僅略高于電視渠道占比。數(shù)字網(wǎng)絡出眾的定向能力和互動潛力應該會繼續(xù)推動這種轉變。

Advertising has also become the prime example of digital platform dominance. Just two companies — Google and Facebook — account for almost all of the net increase in digital ad spending over the past two years. The pace of digitisation will slow if couch potatoes cling to their TV habits, and others may carve off a bigger slice of the video advertising pie, but the underlying shift feels inexorable.

廣告也成為數(shù)字平臺取得優(yōu)勢地位的最好例證。在過去兩年中，谷歌和Facebook兩家公司幾乎瓜分了數(shù)字廣告支出的全部凈增長。如果沙發(fā)土豆們依然保持癡迷電視的習慣，數(shù)字化速度將會放緩，其他渠道可能也會分走視頻廣告更多份額，但基本的轉變趨勢應該是不可阻擋的。

A lower share of the world’s retail sales has found its way online, leaving plenty of room for growth. Ecommerce accounts for about 14 per cent of sales in the US and 9 per cent in western Europe, according to Goldman Sachs. In China, the figure is 22 per cent.

全球零售銷售中網(wǎng)絡銷售的占比還較低，留出了足夠的增長空間。據(jù)高盛(Goldman Sachs)數(shù)據(jù)，電子商務在美國的銷售額占比約為14%，在西歐為9%。在中國這個數(shù)字是22%。

As with the leading advertising platforms, Amazon has been exhibiting some of the winner-takes-all characteristics that come with digital dominance. Its growth rate has accelerated as it has grown, not slowed.

與幾大廣告平臺一樣，亞馬遜也一直展現(xiàn)出數(shù)字優(yōu)勢帶來的贏家通吃的特點。其增速隨著它的增長還在加快，而不是放緩。

Meanwhile, a recent Goldman survey found that only about 19 per cent of the computing workloads carried out by large multinational companies have moved into the cloud. The sunk cost of the existing IT infrastructure will mean that the transition to cloud computing will take many years to play out. But with global IT spending set to reach $3.7tn next year, according to Gartner, the size of the business opportunity is massive.

與此同時，高盛最近一項調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn)，大型跨國公司的計算量只有19%轉移到云端。現(xiàn)有IT基礎設施的沉沒成本意味著向云計算過渡將需要很多年。但據(jù)Gartner數(shù)據(jù)，2018年全球IT支出將達到3.7萬億美元，這一商機的規(guī)模是巨大的。

The US platform companies that have positioned themselves to ride these waves are ending 2017 as the world’s five most valuable groups: Apple, Google, Microsoft, Amazon and Facebook. And even with Apple expected to show barely any revenue growth in 2018, these companies are forecast to add $100bn in sales between them next year — a collective growth rate of 14 per cent.

蘋果(Apple)、谷歌、微軟(Microsoft)、亞馬遜和Facebook這五大公司將自己定位為這些趨勢的弄潮兒的美國平臺公司，2017年成了全球價值最高的五大集團。而且盡管蘋果預計2018年幾乎實現(xiàn)不了任何收入增長，這些公司預計2018年仍將增加總計1000億美元的銷售額，集體增長率為14%。

So what are the main risks? It may be that, in 2018, intimations of mortality will become more apparent. Apple has struggled to show where it will find growth beyond the smartphone. Google has yet to repeat its search advertising success in other markets. Microsoft still has one foot planted in the old PC world.

那么主要風險是什么?在2018年，死亡的征兆可能會變得更加明顯。蘋果一直在艱難展現(xiàn)自己在智能手機領域之外還有什么增長方向。谷歌還未能把它在搜索廣告上的成功復制到其他市場上。微軟的一只腳仍然深深陷在古老的PC世界。

The most immediate threat could be external. European regulators and courts have led the way in pushing back against the power and wealth of the tech giants, from last year’s €13bn penalty over Apple’s preferential tax position in Ireland to this month’s ruling that Uber should be regulated as a transport company. In between came a record antitrust fine against Google.

最直接的威脅可能來自外部。歐洲監(jiān)管機構和法院已經(jīng)率先對科技巨頭的權力和財富發(fā)起反擊——從去年就蘋果在愛爾蘭享受稅收優(yōu)惠地位一事罰款130億歐元、到上個月裁決優(yōu)步(Uber)應該被視為運輸公司來監(jiān)管。期間還有針對谷歌開出的創(chuàng)紀錄的反壟斷罰款。

The spotlight has now shifted to Washington, thanks in no small part to the political outcry over Russia’s use of Facebook to influence last year’s US presidential election. Privately, all the big tech companies are braced for regulatory action, though in the current febrile US political climate, it is hard to see exactly what form that will take.

由于美國政界就俄羅斯利用Facebook影響去年美國總統(tǒng)大選的強烈抗議，現(xiàn)在焦點已經(jīng)轉向了華盛頓。私下里，所有大型科技公司都已準備好面對監(jiān)管行動，不過以目前美國躁動不安的政治氣氛，很難確切地預見政府將采取何種行動。

The gathering political clouds in the US should also help to accentuate the rise of China’s tech leaders. These companies have succeeded in aligning themselves closely with the interests of their state and enjoy a domestic market that is largely insulated from foreign competition.

美國不斷上升的政治不確定性應該也有助于突顯中國科技領頭羊的崛起。這些中國科技企業(yè)成功實現(xiàn)了與國家利益的緊密結合，享有與外國競爭基本隔絕的國內(nèi)市場。

They have yet to step fully on to the world stage, despite recent investments in Snap and Spotify among others. But by the end of 2018, there is a good chance that their global aspirations will have become much more apparent.

盡管這些中國科技企業(yè)最近投資了Snap和Spotify等公司，但目前它們還沒有完全踏上世界舞臺。但是到2018年底，這些中國科技企業(yè)的全球抱負很可能會變得更加明顯。