分析：伊朗最新抗議活動的特點

As Iranian riot police lined up to confront anti-regime demonstrators, a young woman wearing jeans and a pink headscarf defiantly marched up to the officers and screamed: “Death to Khamenei.”

當(dāng)伊朗防暴警察列隊與反政府示威者對峙的時候，一名穿著牛仔褲、戴著粉紅色頭巾的年輕女士沖到這些警察面前尖叫道：“哈梅內(nèi)伊去死。”

A crowd nearby followed suit, shouting slogans against Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Video footage of the incident in the historic city of Isfahan on Friday went viral, and similar chants against the Islamic republic’s supreme leader have become a feature of the five days of unrest.

附近的人群紛紛效仿，高呼著反對阿亞圖拉•阿里•哈梅內(nèi)伊(Ayatollah Ali Khamenei)的口號。上周五發(fā)生在伊斯法罕市的這起事件的視頻流傳開來，反對這個伊斯蘭共和國最高領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人的類似口號已經(jīng)成了近幾天騷亂的一個特征。

The diatribes launched against Mr Khamenei underline the unusual nature of the protests that have become the biggest challenge to the regime in almost a decade. Public criticism of the supreme leader has been a taboo subject since the Islamic revolution, and was barely raised by protesters during the last big anti-government demonstrations in 2009.

對哈梅內(nèi)伊的謾罵突顯出這些抗議活動的不同尋常的性質(zhì)——這些抗議活動已經(jīng)成為近十年來對這個政權(quán)的最大規(guī)模的挑戰(zhàn)。公眾對這位最高領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人的批評是伊斯蘭革命以來的一個禁忌話題，而且在上次發(fā)生于2009年的大規(guī)模反政府示威游行中，抗議者幾乎沒有批評哈梅內(nèi)伊。

But young Iranians disillusioned with the government and angered by poverty, high unemployment and corruption appear to have become increasingly emboldened to speak out against their leaders.

但伊朗的年輕人對政府感到失望，對貧窮、高失業(yè)率和腐敗感到憤慨，他們似乎日益敢于公開反對領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人。

“It is shocking that some protesters easily stand up and chant ‘Death to Khamenei’,” said one reformist analyst. “Demonstrators behave as if they do not believe the political establishment is strong any more and as if it is on the verge of collapse.”

一位改革派分析人士表示：“一些抗議者挺身而出，高喊‘哈梅內(nèi)伊去死’，這令人震驚。示威者表現(xiàn)得似乎不再認(rèn)為政治當(dāng)局是強(qiáng)大的，好像當(dāng)局就要垮了。”

Iranians have also been surprised by the varied backgrounds of those taking to the streets. When the 2009 protests erupted after hardliner Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad won a disputed election, they were largely confined to Tehran with disgruntled middle-class Iranians at the forefront.

伊朗人也對那些走上街頭背景各異的抗議者感到驚訝。2009年，在強(qiáng)硬派人士馬哈茂德•艾哈邁迪-內(nèi)賈德(Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad)贏得有爭議的選舉之后，抗議活動爆發(fā)，但抗議主要發(fā)生在德黑蘭，沖在前面的是心懷不滿的中產(chǎn)階層人士。

Fewer people have taken part in latest unrest, but it spread rapidly hitting small and large towns and cities across the country, and it does not appear to be driven by a particular group or class. One political analyst said the protests erupted within a “widespread but shallow” movement of those who feel socially and economically marginalised.

當(dāng)前抗議活動的參加人數(shù)比較少，但抗議迅速蔓延到全國各地的大小城鎮(zhèn)，而且似乎并不是由一個特定的群體或階層推動的。一位政治分析人士表示，這些抗議活動爆發(fā)的大背景，是由那些感到在社會和經(jīng)濟(jì)上被邊緣化的人群掀起的“普遍但淺層的”運動。

At least 20 people, including two teenagers and a policeman, are believed to have been killed in the demonstrations and hundreds of people have been arrested. The authorities said on Tuesday that the protests had been “curbed” and would soon end.

人們相信，至少有20人在示威中喪生，包括兩名青少年和一名警察，還有數(shù)百人被捕。伊朗當(dāng)局周二表示，抗議活動已經(jīng)受到“遏制”，很快就會結(jié)束。

In his first comments on the unrest, Mr Khamenei blamed the country’s foreign “enemies” for the crisis, a narrative that had been repeated by Iranian officials who blame the US, the UK and Saudi Arabia for fomenting the protests.

哈梅內(nèi)伊在首次評論騷亂時將此次危機(jī)歸咎于伊朗的外國“敵人”，這是伊朗官員經(jīng)常用來指責(zé)美國、英國和沙特阿拉伯煽動抗議的說法。

The demonstrations started with a peaceful rally by thousands of people in Mashhad, Iran’s second city, on Thursday in a protest against rising living costs. Reformist politicians initially responded by claiming that regime hardliners had organised the demonstrations to undermine the centrist government of Hassan Rouhani.

示威活動開始于上周四伊朗第二大城市馬什哈德有數(shù)千人參與的一個和平集會，參加者抗議生活成本不斷上漲。改革派政治人士最初回應(yīng)稱，強(qiáng)硬派組織了這場示威活動，以削弱哈桑•魯哈尼(Hassan Rouhani)的中間派政府。

But some Iranian analysts blame Mr Rouhani, saying he has distanced himself from the millions who voted for him in May elections when he won a landslide victory over his hardline opponent on promises of reform and cracking down on corruption.

但是伊朗一些分析人士指責(zé)魯哈尼稱，他已經(jīng)脫離了5月時投票支持他的數(shù)以百萬計的選民，當(dāng)時他憑借改革和打擊腐敗的承諾壓倒性地?fù)魯×藦?qiáng)硬派的對手。

Mr Rouhani insists he is committed to his election pledges and he presented a budget to parliament last month in which many state organisations affiliated to hardliners are required to be more transparent about their expenditure. This came after the central bank started to regulate financial institutions affiliated to powerful bodies, such as the Revolutionary Guards, that account for about a quarter of all bank transactions in the republic.

魯哈尼堅稱自己正在履行選舉承諾，上個月他向議會提交了一份預(yù)算案，其中包括要求很多附屬于強(qiáng)硬派的政府機(jī)構(gòu)在支出上更加透明。更早之前，伊朗央行開始著手規(guī)范附屬于革命衛(wèi)隊(Revolutionary Guards)等強(qiáng)大機(jī)構(gòu)的金融機(jī)構(gòu)，這些機(jī)構(gòu)占了伊朗約四分之一的銀行交易。

But the move has caused unease among millions of depositors who are worried that their savings might be effected by the measures. The budget also sparked anger after Iranians posted sections of it on social media that showed how much state funding goes to various institutions, including religious organisations that should rely only on charitable donations.

但此舉引起數(shù)百萬儲戶的不安，他們擔(dān)心自己的存款可能受到相關(guān)措施的影響。那份預(yù)算案也引起了憤怒，因為有人在社交媒體上張貼了其中的部分內(nèi)容，顯示有多少國家資金流入各類機(jī)構(gòu)，包括那些本應(yīng)該只依靠慈善捐贈的宗教組織。

The frustration was exacerbated by the government’s plans to increase fuel prices and reform a subsidy programme that would mean 30m people would no longer be eligible for monthly state payments of 455,000 riyals, ($12.60).

政府提高燃油價格和改革補(bǔ)貼政策的計劃加劇了民眾不滿，改革意味著將有3000萬人不再有資格獲得每月45.5萬里亞爾(合12.60美元)的政府補(bǔ)貼。

The protesters have been chanting “Death to Rouhani” and “Death to the dictator”. They have also criticised Iran’s expensive military interventions in Syria and Iraq.

抗議者一直高呼“魯哈尼去死”和“獨裁者去死”。他們還批評伊朗在敘利亞和伊拉克成本高昂的軍事干預(yù)。

“These [protests] are the result of an acute disease caused by three decades of mismanagement that has created a mafia of power and wealth, while many people feel they are victims,” said Hossein Raghfar, an economist. “The whole system needs a major review of policies.”

“這些(抗議活動)是近三十年治理不善導(dǎo)致的重疾的結(jié)果，因為政府的治理不當(dāng)，滋生了一個權(quán)力和財富的集團(tuán)，同時很多人覺得自己是受害者，”經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家侯賽因•拉格法(Hossein Raghfar)表示，“整個體制需要對各項政策進(jìn)行嚴(yán)肅審視。”

Pro-reform analysts believe the hardliners, who typically tout populist policies, hope to exploit the grim mood to push back against change. Parliament has to approve the budget by March and could seek to use their influence over MPs to block the president’s economic reforms.

支持改革的分析人士認(rèn)為，那些通常鼓吹民粹主義政策的強(qiáng)硬派希望利用民眾沮喪情緒來阻止改革。議會3月前必須批準(zhǔn)預(yù)算案，并可能試圖利用其對議員的影響力來阻止魯哈尼的經(jīng)濟(jì)改革計劃。

“Mr Rouhani may not be able to push for his moderate economic reforms because of the pretext of the street protests,” said Saeed Laylaz, a reform-minded economist. “Hardliners are determined to prevent any structural economic reforms, including [increasing] energy prices and taxing institutions linked to their power centres.”

“街頭抗議將被拿來作托辭，魯哈尼可能無法推進(jìn)他的溫和經(jīng)濟(jì)改革，”改革派經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家賽義德•萊拉茲(Saeed Laylaz)表示，“強(qiáng)硬派決心阻止一切結(jié)構(gòu)性經(jīng)濟(jì)改革，包括(上調(diào))能源價格以及向與其權(quán)力中心關(guān)聯(lián)的機(jī)構(gòu)征稅。”

But Abbas Abdi, a reform-minded analyst, said that hardliners would be wrong to think they can take advantage of people’s frustrations.

但是改革派分析人士阿巴斯•阿卜迪(Abbas Abdi)表示，強(qiáng)硬派如果認(rèn)為他們可以利用民眾的挫敗感，那他們就想錯了。

“The main reason behind these incidents is the despair and hopelessness in society,” Mr Abdi, a reform-minded analyst told a local news agency. “Any despair will surely affect all [political] sectors.”

“這些事件背后的主要原因是社會上的失望和絕望感，”改革派分析人士阿卜迪向當(dāng)?shù)匾患倚侣剻C(jī)構(gòu)表示，“失望必然會影響到所有(政治)派別。”