特朗普有關(guān)朝鮮無(wú)核化的斷言符合事實(shí)嗎？

SEOUL, South Korea — President Trump said on Thursday that North Korea had already begun to denuclearize, as he continued to trumpet the results of his summit meeting last week with the North’s leader, Kim Jong-un.

韓國(guó)首爾——特朗普總統(tǒng)上周四表示，朝鮮已經(jīng)開始去核，他是在繼續(xù)宣揚(yáng)兩周前與朝鮮領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人金正恩舉行的峰會(huì)的結(jié)果。

At the June 12 meeting in Singapore, Mr. Kim agreed to “work toward complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.” But the joint statement the two leaders signed lacked details about when North Korea would dismantle its nuclear program and under what terms, or even what specifically was meant by “denuclearization.”

金正恩在6月12日的新加坡峰會(huì)上同意“努力實(shí)現(xiàn)朝鮮半島的全面無(wú)核化”。但兩國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人簽署的聯(lián)合聲明缺乏細(xì)節(jié)，沒有關(guān)于朝鮮逐步廢除其核項(xiàng)目的時(shí)間表、以及在什么條件下才會(huì)廢除，甚至沒有“去核化”的具體含義。

Since then, Mr. Trump has made bold claims about what was achieved in Singapore, asserting that there is “no longer a nuclear threat from North Korea” and that the nuclear crisis is now “largely solved.” Such statements have led to accusations that he is misleading the public. (The North, for instance, has just as many nuclear weapons as it did before the summit talks.)

從那以后，特朗普一直在對(duì)新加坡峰會(huì)取得的結(jié)果做出大膽的斷言，他聲稱“朝鮮不再構(gòu)成核威脅”，核危機(jī)現(xiàn)在“基本上已經(jīng)解決”。這些聲稱引來了人們指責(zé)他誤導(dǎo)公眾的說法。(比如，朝鮮現(xiàn)在擁有的核武器數(shù)量與峰會(huì)前擁有的一樣多。)

Here are a few of the assertions Mr. Trump made during a cabinet meeting on Thursday, and a look at how they compare with the facts:

下面是特朗普在周四的一次內(nèi)閣會(huì)議上的一些聲稱，以及他的說法與事實(shí)的比較：

‘They’ve stopped the sending of missiles, including ballistic missiles’

“他們已經(jīng)停止了導(dǎo)彈發(fā)射，包括彈道導(dǎo)彈發(fā)射。”

True.

符合事實(shí)。

Last November, North Korea launched an intercontinental ballistic missile that officials said was powerful enough to reach the mainland United States, the latest in a series of missile tests that the North carried out last year. (It also tested a nuclear weapon in September.) Since then, it has not launched any missiles. Its suspension of both nuclear and missile tests eased the way for Mr. Kim’s meeting with South Korea’s president, Moon Jae-in, in late April and his talks with Mr. Trump.

去年11月，朝鮮發(fā)射了一枚洲際彈道導(dǎo)彈，官員們說，那枚導(dǎo)彈有足以飛到美國(guó)本土的強(qiáng)大能力，那是朝鮮去年進(jìn)行的一系列導(dǎo)彈試驗(yàn)中的最后一次。(朝鮮還在去年9月測(cè)試了一枚核武器。)自那時(shí)起，朝鮮就一直沒有發(fā)射過任何導(dǎo)彈。朝鮮暫停核試驗(yàn)和導(dǎo)彈試驗(yàn)的做法，為金正恩在4月底與韓國(guó)總統(tǒng)文在寅的會(huì)晤、以及金正恩與特朗普的會(huì)談鋪平了道路。

In April, North Korea said it no longer needed to test nuclear weapons or intercontinental ballistic missiles because it had finished building its nuclear deterrent. But some Western analysts doubt that the North has truly mastered all the technologies needed to deliver warheads that can survive re-entry into the Earth’s atmosphere and hit targets across the Pacific.

朝鮮在今年4月表示，不再需要測(cè)試核武器或洲際彈道導(dǎo)彈，因?yàn)槌r已經(jīng)完成了核威懾力量的建設(shè)。但一些西方分析人士不相信朝鮮真正掌握了運(yùn)送彈頭所需的全部技術(shù)，比如在彈頭重返地球大氣層時(shí)不被燒毀、從而能打擊太平洋彼岸目標(biāo)的技術(shù)。

‘They’re destroying their engine site. They’re blowing it up.’

“他們正在搗毀他們的發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)場(chǎng)地。他們正在將其炸掉。”

Premature.

為時(shí)尚早。

Speaking to reporters in Singapore after the summit meeting, Mr. Trump said North Korea had promised to dismantle a facility for testing missile engines. North Korea has yet to confirm that Mr. Kim made such a promise, nor has it announced any plans to destroy such a facility.

峰會(huì)后，特朗普在新加坡對(duì)記者說，朝鮮已承諾拆除一個(gè)用于測(cè)試導(dǎo)彈發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)的設(shè)施。朝鮮方面尚未證實(shí)金正恩做出了這種承諾，也沒有宣布任何搗毀此類設(shè)施的計(jì)劃。

Mr. Trump did not say what site he was referring to. Analysts have focused on a facility at the Sohae Satellite Launching Ground in Tongchang-ri, in northwestern North Korea. In March of last year, North Korea successfully tested a new high-thrust engine there, one that analysts said was later used to power its intercontinental ballistic missiles.

特朗普沒有說明他指的是哪個(gè)場(chǎng)地。分析人士一直關(guān)注的是位于朝鮮西北部東昌里的西海衛(wèi)星發(fā)射場(chǎng)的一個(gè)設(shè)施。去年3月，朝鮮在那里成功地測(cè)試了一臺(tái)新的高推力發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)。分析人士說，這臺(tái)發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)后來被用于為朝鮮的洲際彈道導(dǎo)彈提供動(dòng)力。

Satellite imagery from June 12, the day of the summit meeting, revealed no signs that preparations were underway to dismantle the engine test stand at Tongchang-ri, Joseph S. Bermudez Jr., an expert on the North’s missile programs, said in an analysis posted on the website 38 North.

從6月12日峰會(huì)當(dāng)天拍攝的衛(wèi)星圖像來看，沒有跡象顯示朝鮮正在為拆除東昌里的發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)試驗(yàn)臺(tái)做準(zhǔn)備，研究朝鮮導(dǎo)彈計(jì)劃的專家小約瑟夫·S·貝穆德斯(Joseph S. Bermudez Jr.)在北緯38度(38 North)網(wǎng)站上發(fā)布的一份分析報(bào)告中說。

Destroying an engine-testing site would not necessarily mean that North Korea was abandoning its intercontinental ballistic missile program. But it would be taken as a confidence-building step by Washington and its allies as they enter negotiations with North Korea over implementing the summit agreement.

搗毀一個(gè)發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)測(cè)試基地并不一定意味著朝鮮在放棄其洲際彈道導(dǎo)彈項(xiàng)目。但那在華盛頓及其盟友就落實(shí)峰會(huì)協(xié)議與朝鮮進(jìn)行談判的時(shí)候，會(huì)被視為建立信任的一步。

“While there are other vertical engine test stands in North Korea, the one at Sohae is the most well developed and its destruction would represent a significant symbolic and practical step forward for North Korea,” Mr. Bermudez wrote.

“雖然朝鮮也有其他的垂直發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)測(cè)試臺(tái)，但西海的這個(gè)最先進(jìn)，西海測(cè)試臺(tái)的摧毀將會(huì)是朝鮮邁出的具有象征意義的、切實(shí)的一步，”貝穆德斯寫道。

‘They’ve already blown up one of their big test sites. In fact, it was actually four of their big test sites.

“他們已經(jīng)炸毀了他們大型試驗(yàn)場(chǎng)地中的一個(gè)。實(shí)際上，他們炸毀了四個(gè)大型試驗(yàn)場(chǎng)地。”

Exaggerated.

有所夸張。

There is no evidence that the North Koreans have blown up “four of their big test sites,” whether nuclear or missile-related.

沒有證據(jù)表明，朝鮮炸毀了“四個(gè)大型試驗(yàn)場(chǎng)地”，無(wú)論是用于核試驗(yàn)的還是與導(dǎo)彈有關(guān)的。

But in May, with the international news media watching, the North did detonate explosives at the site where it conducted all six of its nuclear tests to date, characterizing it as a dismantling of the facility. Three tunnels were demolished at the site in Punggye-ri, in northeastern North Korea, which is the North’s only known nuclear test site.

但今年5月，在國(guó)際新聞媒體到場(chǎng)的情況下，朝鮮在其進(jìn)行了迄今為止所有六次核試驗(yàn)的地方引爆了炸藥，并稱拆除了那里的核設(shè)施。爆炸摧毀了位于朝鮮東北部豐溪里的三個(gè)隧道，豐溪里是朝鮮唯一被外界所知的核試驗(yàn)基地。

However, no experts from the United Nations or any other independent body were present to verify whether the site had been completely destroyed, or whether it could be repaired should North Korea decide to resume testing.

但是，沒有來自聯(lián)合國(guó)或任何其他獨(dú)立機(jī)構(gòu)的專家到場(chǎng)，以對(duì)該基地是否已被徹底摧毀進(jìn)行核實(shí)，或?qū)θ绻r決定恢復(fù)核試驗(yàn)，該基地是否能被修復(fù)進(jìn)行核實(shí)。

Reports also emerged early this month that the North had razed a stand that it used to test launching technologies for solid-fuel ballistic missiles. But there are no signs that North Korea has destroyed any other nuclear or missile test facilities.

本月初，有報(bào)道稱，朝鮮拆除了一個(gè)用于測(cè)試固體燃料彈道導(dǎo)彈發(fā)射技術(shù)的發(fā)射臺(tái)。但是，沒有跡象表明朝鮮已摧毀了任何其他的核試驗(yàn)或?qū)椩囼?yàn)設(shè)施。

‘It will be a total denuclearization, which is already starting taking place’

“這將是一個(gè)全面的去核化，這一進(jìn)程已經(jīng)開始了。”

Dubious.

值得懷疑。

If the steps described above are considered part of the denuclearization process, then it can indeed be said to have begun — though all of them took place before the Singapore talks.

如果上面描述的步驟被認(rèn)為是無(wú)核化進(jìn)程的一部分的話，可以說進(jìn)程已經(jīng)開始——不過，所有這些步驟都發(fā)生在新加坡峰會(huì)之前。

But many analysts say that North Korea cannot be said to have started denuclearizing until it begins actually dismantling its nuclear weapons, which has not happened. Nor has the North started disposing of its fissile materials or the facilities, such as centrifuges and a nuclear reactor, that have been used to produce them. And it has said nothing about when, or whether, it will dismantle the missiles that it says can deliver nuclear warheads.

但是，許多分析人士說，不能說朝鮮已經(jīng)開始了去核化進(jìn)程，除非朝鮮開始了銷毀自己核武器的實(shí)際行動(dòng)，而這還沒有發(fā)生。朝鮮也沒有開始銷毀自己的可裂變材料或用于生產(chǎn)這些材料的離心機(jī)和核反應(yīng)堆等設(shè)施。朝鮮也沒有說，什么時(shí)候、或是否會(huì)拆除其稱之為能夠運(yùn)載核彈頭的導(dǎo)彈。

For his part, Defense Secretary Jim Mattis told reporters on Wednesday that he knew of no steps that North Korea had taken toward denuclearization. “I’m not aware of any,” he said. “Obviously, we’re at the very front end of the process. Detailed negotiations have not begun.”

美國(guó)國(guó)防部長(zhǎng)吉姆·馬蒂斯(Jim Mattis)周三對(duì)記者說，就他而言，他還沒有看到朝鮮在實(shí)現(xiàn)無(wú)核化上采取了任何步驟。“我對(duì)此一無(wú)所知，”他說。“顯然，我們?nèi)哉幵谶@個(gè)過程的最前期。具體的談判尚未開始。”

‘They’ve already sent back, or are in the process of sending back, the remains of our great heroes who died in North Korea during the war’

“他們已經(jīng)把我們?cè)诔r戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)中死去的偉大英雄的遺骸送回來、或正在送回的過程中。”

Premature.

為時(shí)尚早。

Between 1996 and 2005, American experts and North Korean workers recovered remains believed to be those of more than 220 American soldiers who were killed during the Korean War, which raged from 1950 to 1953. No remains of American war dead have been sent home from North Korea since then.

1996至2005年間，美國(guó)專家和朝鮮工人找到的據(jù)認(rèn)是在1950至1953年的朝鮮戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)期間喪生的220多名美國(guó)士兵的遺骸。從那以后，就再也沒有過把美國(guó)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)死者的遺骸從朝鮮運(yùn)回美國(guó)的事情。

Mr. Kim promised at the Singapore summit to do more, committing the North to returning more American remains from major battle sites, “including the immediate repatriation of those already identified.” Given that commitment — one that would cost Pyongyang little to honor — the North may well return more soldiers’ remains soon, but as of Friday it had not done so.

金正恩在新加坡峰會(huì)上承諾，將在這方面采取更多的行動(dòng)，他承諾朝鮮將把在主要戰(zhàn)場(chǎng)上找到的更多的美國(guó)人遺骸運(yùn)回國(guó)，“包括把已經(jīng)得到的已確認(rèn)的遺骸馬上運(yùn)回美國(guó)。”考慮到這一承諾幾乎不需要朝鮮付出任何代價(jià)，朝鮮本可能很快會(huì)把更多士兵的遺骸還給美國(guó)，但截至周五，朝鮮還沒有這么做。

About 5,300 American troops presumed to have been killed in North Korea are still unaccounted for. Even if the North fully cooperates, recovering most of them is likely to take years. Once the remains are gathered, painstaking forensic work must be carried out before they can be positively identified. In the past, some soldiers’ remains sent to the United States from the North were mingled with the bones of unidentified people or even animals.

有約5300名據(jù)信是在朝鮮喪生的美國(guó)士兵仍下落不明。即使朝鮮完全與美國(guó)合作，找到其中的大部分可能需要數(shù)年的時(shí)間。把這些遺骸收集起來以后，仍需進(jìn)行細(xì)心的法醫(yī)工作才能確定它們的身份。過去曾發(fā)生過從朝鮮運(yùn)回美國(guó)的一些士兵遺骸與不明身份者的、甚至與動(dòng)物的骨頭混雜在一起的情況。