金融英語第二十四講:亞洲金融風(fēng)暴（二）

所屬教程:金融英語世界

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Lesson 24 金融世界第二十四集:亞洲金融風(fēng)暴（二）

這一講是二十四講金融世界系列節(jié)目的最后一講，繼續(xù)介紹二十世紀末發(fā)生在亞洲的金融危機。

金融世界第二十四集
亞洲金融風(fēng)暴（二）
這一講是我們這套二十四講系列節(jié)目的最后一講。我們要跟您繼續(xù)談?wù)劧兰o末發(fā)生在亞洲的金融危機。

亞洲的經(jīng)濟危計是從金融行業(yè)開始的。它是如何迅速地蔓延到整個經(jīng)濟領(lǐng)域的呢？美國密執(zhí)安州立大學(xué)的克雷寧教授對此作了解釋：

In all these countries, the trouble started in the financial sector. The question is, how did it move from the financial sector to the real economy, to economic growth, to real GDP?

Well there are several channels. Number one is what we call in economics a 'negative wealth effect'. If the stockmarket declines by 40%, then people feel less wealthy; if they feel less wealthy they buy less; if they buy less, less is produced and fewer people are employed. So that's one channel.

But there were other channels through investments where the credit system was flawed; even sound companies couldn't get credit with which to produce, with which to buy material, with which to buy capital, with which to invest and to produce. So the credit system problem ... that lubricant of the economy was non-existent. So those are only some of the channels through which it moved from the financial sector to the real economy.

克雷寧教授在談話中使用了這樣一些縮略語或詞匯：

1 GDP （Gross Domestic Product 的縮寫）國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值
2 Negative wealth effect 財富遞減效應(yīng)
3 lubricant of the economy 經(jīng)濟的潤滑劑

接下來我們把克雷寧教授的這段談話和中文翻譯分段聽一遍：（英文略）

所有這些國家都是在金融行業(yè)首先出現(xiàn)麻煩。問題是這些麻煩如何從金融部門影響到總體經(jīng)濟、經(jīng)濟的增長以及國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值呢？

有這樣一些渠道。首先是我們在經(jīng)濟學(xué)中所稱的“財富遞減效應(yīng)”。如果股票市場跌落百分之四十，人們會覺得自己的財富減少了。如果他們覺得自己的財富減少了，他們就會減少購物支出。如果他們減少購物支出，生產(chǎn)就會減少，受雇用的人數(shù)也會降低。這是一個渠道。

還有其他一些投資方面的渠道。信貸系統(tǒng)出了問題，使甚至經(jīng)營良好的公司也無法得到用于生產(chǎn)、用于購買原料、用于購置資產(chǎn)、用于投資和生產(chǎn)的貸款。因此信貸系統(tǒng)有了問題，經(jīng)濟的潤滑劑就不復(fù)存在。這只是危機從金融部門轉(zhuǎn)向總體經(jīng)濟的幾個渠道。

下面我們把克雷寧教授的這段談話連起來聽一遍。（英文略）

接下來克雷寧教授又解釋了亞洲的金融危機會怎樣影響到其他的國家。他說：

There is a meltdown in Russia and in Venezuela - in one day. Now what do Russia and Venezuela have in common? Nothing except that they are both big oil exporters, and since those five countries had that economic meltdown - moving into a depression in Indonesia with 20% decline in GDP to a deep recession everywhere else, 5% decline in GDP - they need less oil and they need less raw materials. So all countries that export oil and that export raw materials are going to suffer.

This is how the system spread. It spreads even through the trade channel, or through the financial channel from one country to the other - and when there is loss of confidence the spread is rather rapid.

克雷寧教授在這段談話中使用了這樣幾個詞匯：

1 meltdown 熔化，溶解，這里指經(jīng)濟萎縮
2 depression 蕭條
3 recession 衰退
4 raw materials 生產(chǎn)原料
5 spread 傳播，蔓延

下面我們再分段聽一遍克雷寧教授的這段談話和中文翻譯：（英文略）

俄羅斯和委內(nèi)瑞拉一天之內(nèi)就出現(xiàn)了經(jīng)濟萎縮。俄羅斯與委內(nèi)瑞拉有什么共同之處呢？它們都是石油出口大國。亞洲五國出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟萎縮，印尼的國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值降低百分之二十，進入蕭條期，其他國家的國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值降低百分之五，進入嚴重的衰退，它們需要的石油和原料就減少了。因此所有出口石油和原料的國家都會受到損害。

這就是這一機制是如何傳播的。它甚至通過貿(mào)易渠道或金融渠道從一個國家傳到另一個國家。當(dāng)人們失去信心的時候它的傳播會非常迅速。

現(xiàn)在我們再來聽一遍克雷寧教授這段談話的原文。（英文略）

二十世紀末的亞洲經(jīng)濟危機發(fā)生后，很對經(jīng)濟學(xué)家認為短期資本的流動效應(yīng)與長期投資以及商品服務(wù)貿(mào)易的效應(yīng)有很大不同。香港匯豐銀行高級經(jīng)濟師約翰愛德華茲對此作了解釋。他說：

There's an intrinsic flaw in the system. There's no constraint at all on short-term lending, international lending, but there's no international lender of the last resort facility which can assure this debt can be redeemed.

Of course it's being spent on projects which have a life longer than the term of the debt. I mean, that's a rather complicated way of saying that there's a mismatch between the term of the lending and the investment period for which it's being used, as there is in the case of domestic banks - if you have a cheque account at a bank, the bank is in fact using that to lend money on projects which might have a life of two or three, or longer years, but you can withdraw the money tomorrow. And the way in which this is reconciled for a bank is ultimately, say the Reserve Bank of Australia can provide liquidity, has a lender of the last resort role.

But there's no such role internationally, and that means that lenders have an incentive to stampede, to have a run on a country. And at the moment we don't have a way of dealing with that.

下面我們把約翰愛德華茲的這段談話和中文翻譯分段聽一遍：（英文略）

這個體系有一個固有的缺陷：對國際短期借貸沒有任何的約束限制，同時也沒有任何國際“最后貸款人”機制來確保借款能夠獲得償還。

這些借款當(dāng)然都是用于項目期限長于借款期限的項目。我是說，用一種比較復(fù)雜的說法來解釋，那就是貸款期限與使用貸款的投資期限不相配。正如在國內(nèi)銀行發(fā)生的情況一樣。如果你在一家銀行有一個支票帳戶，銀行實際上把你的錢借貸出去用于可能會持續(xù)兩到三年或更長時間的項目，而你可以在明天就取出存款。對銀行來說這種情況最終可通過類似澳大利亞儲備銀行這樣的“最后貸款人”提供流動資金來調(diào)節(jié)。

但國際上卻沒有這樣的最后貸款人。因此債權(quán)人就有了一窩蜂把借款從一個國家轉(zhuǎn)移出去的動機?，F(xiàn)在我們對此還無能為力。

最后我們把愛德華茲這段談話的原文再聽一遍。（英文略）