設(shè)計和生產(chǎn)之 預(yù)測市場動向　Predicting Trends

設(shè)計和生產(chǎn)之 預(yù)測市場動向　Predicting Trends

在任何行業(yè)內(nèi)，通過預(yù)測趨勢（spot trends）就可能掌握什么即將成為熱門（may be hot），從而指導(dǎo)產(chǎn)品研發(fā)和銷售的方向。有很多技術(shù)可以用來收集數(shù)據(jù)，這種有針對性的數(shù)據(jù)收集被稱作“數(shù)據(jù)挖掘”（data mining），在商界很盛行（take the business world by storm）。如何通過數(shù)據(jù)挖掘就能緊跟潮流（get on the bandwagon），參看如下內(nèi)容：

收集信息（collect information）

要填充一個調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)表（table of data）需要幾年內(nèi)的數(shù)據(jù)。預(yù)測未來趨勢（future trend projection）不僅要參看目前的變化，還要結(jié)合長時間的數(shù)據(jù)庫（database）?？傊嘘P(guān)過去的信息掌握越多，了解未來的情況就越多。

⊙What have we learned from our fishing expeditions?我們通過摸底調(diào)查都獲得了哪些信息？

⊙This table highlights consumer trends over the last ten years.這個表格整體反映了最近十年來的消費走向。

⊙Here's a look at what the spending habits of our target customers have been over the last year.

看一下這兒，在過去一年里我們的目標(biāo)客戶群體的消費習(xí)慣統(tǒng)計。

⊙Take a look at the numbers we've come up with.

看一下我們得出的數(shù)據(jù)。

⊙Take a look at the data we have coming out of the research.看一下我們通過調(diào)查得出的數(shù)據(jù)。

⊙Our projections should be accurate……they're based on twenty years worth of data.

我們的推測應(yīng)當(dāng)是準(zhǔn)確的，它們建立在20年的數(shù)據(jù)之上。

分析數(shù)據(jù)

通過收集來的信息分析有意義的模式。現(xiàn)代技術(shù)的使用將簡化你的工作（make this easier on yourself），通過對數(shù)據(jù)的算法（algorithms）來分析市場和銷售的變化，以及正在顯現(xiàn)的（currently rising）趨勢。

⊙We've determined a pattern in spending for this particular demographic.我們已經(jīng)找到這個特殊消費群體的一種消費模式。

⊙Our target group has an established consumer behavior.我們的目標(biāo)群體已經(jīng)有了固定的消費習(xí)慣。

⊙This pattern of behavior is currently rising among our interest populations.這個行為模式正在我們的利益群體中增長。

⊙Current industry trends are……目前的行業(yè)發(fā)展趨勢是……

⊙What's hot and what's not?什么熱門？什么不熱門？

⊙It looks like it's going to be the year for……看上去……年即將到來。

⊙What are our customers doing now?That will tell us what they might be doing next.我們的消費者在做什么？那將告訴我們他們下一步將做什么。

⊙If we know which way this trend is going, we stand to earn a bundle.如果我們了解趨勢，就一定會大賺一筆。

將數(shù)據(jù)圖表化（graph data）

通過視覺圖形（visual graphing）更容易總結(jié)在一定時期內(nèi)的變化。表格中可以包含你需要考慮的每種產(chǎn)品、每種表現(xiàn)和每種趨勢。通過表格，數(shù)據(jù)挖掘的結(jié)果一目了然（be clear at a glance）。

⊙This graph clearly shows the direction we should be heading.這個表格清晰地反映了我們應(yīng)當(dāng)走的方向。

⊙Take a look at the graph.It illustrates the trends we should be paying attention to.看一下這個表格，它說明了我們應(yīng)當(dāng)注意的趨勢。

判斷

將數(shù)據(jù)挖掘圖所顯示的趨勢變化，進(jìn)一步評估可能延續(xù)（continuance）的走向，并撰寫報告來具體說明。在背景數(shù)據(jù)指導(dǎo)下，觀察變化細(xì)節(jié)，總結(jié)若干可能，通過集思廣益的方式找出最佳可能性。

⊙While this might look like a rising trend among computer users, it is in fact a short term reaction to a local Internet glitch.

盡管表面上看這是電腦用戶出現(xiàn)增長，但事實上這是對當(dāng)?shù)鼗ヂ?lián)網(wǎng)故障的短期反應(yīng)。

⊙The background on this explains why we don't have to take this data into consideration.

有關(guān)這個方面的背景情況解釋了我們?yōu)槭裁床槐乜紤]這個數(shù)據(jù)。

總結(jié)

誰能夠?qū)κ袌龅淖兓龅健跋戎扔X”，誰就能搶占先機，引領(lǐng)行業(yè)的發(fā)展。主觀臆斷和理性推測的區(qū)別就在于后者是建立在大量的調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)基礎(chǔ)上。被挖掘的數(shù)據(jù)越多、越詳細(xì)，做出的趨勢判斷就越可靠。圖表的形式能更加清晰地體現(xiàn)趨勢變化。

Words　單詞表

accurate精確的，準(zhǔn)確的

algorithm算法，計算程序

awhile一會兒，片刻

bandwagon風(fēng)尚

demographic人口統(tǒng)計的

glitch故障

gravitation引力

guesstimate猜測，估量

highlight突出，強調(diào)

hot熱點

pattern模式，圖案

projection預(yù)測，推測

research研究，調(diào)查

spending支出，開銷，花費

spike尖頭

Phrases　短語表

based on基于，在……基礎(chǔ)上

come out of從……中得出

earn a bundle賺很多錢，大賺一筆

environmentally friendly環(huán)保的，對環(huán)境無害的

environmentally responsible符合環(huán)境標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，有利環(huán)境

fishing expedition試探性調(diào)查，摸底

get on the bandwagon趕時髦，跟潮流

go green綠色環(huán)保

going a direction　朝某個方向走

gravitation towards被……吸引

head a direction朝某個方向

market behavior市場行為，市場走勢

ought to be應(yīng)該

purchasing pattern采購模式，采購樣式

take a look at檢查，看一下

target population目標(biāo)人群，目標(biāo)群體

實景對話1

A：So you've been able to determine a pattern in spending for this particular demographic?

B：Well, kind of. We have the data and I've run several algorithms on it， but it's a little hard to make sense of it all. One thing we do know, and we have known for some time is that our target group has an establishedconsumer behavior.We are just looking for changes in consumer behavior so we can stay on top of the market.

A：What are our customers doing now?That will tell us what they might be doing next.

B：Not necessarily……We've been able to track current trends, but it still takes some talent in guesstimating to know what future trends might be.

A：Take a look at the numbers we've come up with. What's this spike on the graph?It looks like an increase in purchase of computer support services over the last month. This tells us something about our target group.We can guess they are becoming more interested in technologically advanced products.This pattern of behavior is currently rising among our interest populations.

B：No. That's what I was saying about making informed conclusions……While this might look like a rising trend among computer users, it is in fact a short term reaction to a local Internet glitch.

A：那么你們已經(jīng)總結(jié)出這些特別人群的消費模式了？

B：嗯，一些。我們有這些數(shù)據(jù)而且我對其反復(fù)運算，但是很難說明所有問題。

有一件事我們是知道的，而且有了一段時間，那就是我們的目標(biāo)群體已經(jīng)建立了消費習(xí)慣。我們正在尋找消費習(xí)慣的變化，這樣我們就能把握全局了。

A：我們的消費者現(xiàn)在都在做什么呢？那會告訴我們他們下一步可能做什么。

B：不見得……我們已經(jīng)摸索到了市場的動向，但是還需要一些推測來知道未來的走向是什么。

A：看一下我們得到的數(shù)據(jù)，圖表中的這個尖頭是什么？看上去是上個月電腦輔助服務(wù)購買出現(xiàn)了增長。這就告訴我們一些有關(guān)目標(biāo)群體的信息，我們可以猜測他們在高端科技產(chǎn)品上表現(xiàn)出了越來越強的興趣。這個消費模式正在我們的利益群體中增長。

B：不，那就是我所說的為什么要做一個有根據(jù)的總結(jié)的原因。盡管表面上看這是電腦用戶出現(xiàn)增長，但事實上這是對當(dāng)?shù)鼗ヂ?lián)網(wǎng)故障的短期反應(yīng)。

實景對話2

A：So tell me……What's hot and what's not?

B：Take a look at the data we have coming out of the research. Based on our numbers, it looks like it's going to be the year for going green. We are looking at the purchasing patterns of our target populations.There's a gravitation towards increased spending on environmentally responsible products and services.The products we should be developing ought to be focused on this change in market behavior.

A：Are you sure your data is accurate?

B：Our projections should be accurate……they're based on twenty years worth of data. Current industry trends have been going this direction for awhile.We'd better get on the bandwagon and start marketing our products in a more environmentally friendly way.

A：Can I take a look?

B：Yeah. Here, this table highlights consumer trends over the last ten years.

And see, this graph clearly shows the direction we should be heading.

A：If we know which way this trend is going, we stand to earn a bundle.

A：那么告訴我，什么最熱門？什么不熱門？

B：看一下從調(diào)查中我們得出的數(shù)據(jù)。在這些數(shù)據(jù)看來環(huán)保年即將到來。我們觀察我們的目標(biāo)群體的消費模式，他們在環(huán)保產(chǎn)品和服務(wù)的消費上出現(xiàn)了傾向性的增長。我們研發(fā)的產(chǎn)品應(yīng)當(dāng)注重這個市場走勢的變化。

A：你肯定你的數(shù)據(jù)都準(zhǔn)確嗎？

B：我們的推測應(yīng)當(dāng)是準(zhǔn)確的。它們建立在20年的數(shù)據(jù)之上。目前行業(yè)已經(jīng)朝這個方向發(fā)展了一段時間。我們最好跟上潮流并且開始讓我們的產(chǎn)品更加環(huán)保。

A：我能看一下嗎？

B：行，給你。這份表格集中反映了最近十年來的消費趨勢。看，這個圖標(biāo)清晰地顯示了我們應(yīng)當(dāng)朝那個方向走。

A：如果我們了解趨勢，就一定會大賺一筆。