專家：坐飛機(jī)依然很安全

The disappearance of an Indonesia AirAsia jetliner with 162 people on board caps a torrid year for the aviation industry involving a spate of high-profile crashes. Accident data indicates, though, that flying remains safe by historical standards.

從印尼起飛、載有162人的亞航航班失聯(lián)為航空業(yè)倍受煎熬的一年畫(huà)上句號(hào)，這一年發(fā)生了一系列備受關(guān)注的空難事件。不過(guò)，從事故發(fā)生率來(lái)看，相對(duì)歷史水平，飛機(jī)安全系數(shù)依舊很高。

AirAsia Flight QZ8501 lost contact with air traffic control Sunday on a flight to Singapore from Surabaya, Indonesia, as it was climbing to a higher altitude to avoid stormy weather, officials said. Contact with the Airbus Group NV A320 jet, which can seat 180 passengers, was lost at 7:24 a.m. local time—almost two hours after takeoff.

據(jù)印尼官員消息，12月28日，亞洲航空QZ8501航班在從印尼泗水前往新加坡的途中與空中交通管制失去聯(lián)系，當(dāng)時(shí)飛機(jī)遭遇暴雨天氣，正在爬升。飛機(jī)機(jī)型為空中客車(chē)A320，能搭載180名乘客。當(dāng)?shù)貢r(shí)間早上7點(diǎn)24分，即起飛后兩小時(shí)，飛機(jī)失去了聯(lián)系。

The disappearance follows a series of ill-fated flights this year, of which two belonged to Malaysia Airlines. In March, one of its Boeing Co. 777s went missing with 239 people on board en route to Beijing from Kuala Lumpur, and the wreckage still hasn’t been located. And in July, another 777 belonging to the Malaysian carrier was shot down over eastern Ukraine, killing all 298 aboard in the year’s deadliest air accident.

這架飛機(jī)失蹤之前，已經(jīng)有多個(gè)航班遭遇同樣噩運(yùn)。其中兩架來(lái)自馬來(lái)西亞航空公司。3月，馬航一架載有239人的波音777客機(jī)從吉隆坡飛往北京途中失聯(lián)，至今仍未找到其殘骸。7月，另一架馬航波音777客機(jī)途徑烏克蘭東部時(shí)被擊落，機(jī)上298名乘員全部遇難。這也是今年死亡人數(shù)最多的一起空難。

An Air Algérie flight also crashed in July while flying to Algeria from Burkina Faso. All 116 people on the plane died.

同月，阿爾及利亞航空一架從布基納法索飛往阿爾及利亞的客機(jī)失事，機(jī)上116人無(wú)一生還。

MH370 dropped off the radar an hour into flight. At the end of 2014, the families of the victims still have no answers. WSJ's Jason Bellini reports.

馬航MH370航班起飛一小時(shí)后在雷達(dá)上失去了信號(hào)。2014年已接近尾聲，遇難者家屬們?nèi)匀粵](méi)有得到任何答復(fù)。

Despite these accidents and a series of others during the summer, the loss of life during 2014 before the disappearance of the AirAsia plane Sunday was still below the 10-year average of 676 fatalities, according to data from the Aviation Safety Network, an affiliate of the not-for-profit Flight Safety Foundation. Crashes this year had led to 526 fatalities before contact was lost with the AirAsia jetliner, the group said. The deaths from the shootdown over Ukraine aren’t counted because they are linked to a hostile act.

盡管今年夏天發(fā)生了一系列空難事故，但據(jù)非贏利性機(jī)構(gòu)飛行安全基金會(huì)(Flight Safety Foundation)旗下的航空安全網(wǎng)(Aviation Safety Network)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，過(guò)去10年平均每年空難死亡人數(shù)為676人，在28日亞航客機(jī)失聯(lián)之前，2014年的遇難者人數(shù)為526人，依然低于平均人數(shù)。統(tǒng)計(jì)中沒(méi)有涉及烏克蘭上空那架被擊落的航班，理由是它失事的主要原因是敵對(duì)行為。

“It will probably come as a surprise to most people, but really it was a very safe year,” said Paul Hayes, director of safety at aviation consultancy Ascend.

航空咨詢公司Ascend的安全主管保羅?海斯(Paul Hayes)說(shuō)：“很多人可能會(huì)覺(jué)得不可思議，不過(guò)今年的飛機(jī)確實(shí)很安全。”

The number of fatalities from plane crashes this year is a long way off the 1,074 people who were killed in 2005. The figures were much higher in the 1970s and 1980s, when far fewer people flew.

今年因空難喪生的遇難者人數(shù)遠(yuǎn)低于2005年的1074人。而在20世紀(jì)七八十年代，乘坐飛機(jī)的人數(shù)很少，而死亡人數(shù)卻遠(yuǎn)超現(xiàn)在。

The International Air Transport Association, which represents more than 200 carriers, said this month that accident rates this year through September were below the five-year average, with 2.1 crashes per 1 million flights.

12月，代表200多家航空公司國(guó)際航空運(yùn)輸協(xié)會(huì)曾表示，截至到9月，今年飛機(jī)的事故發(fā)生率為每100萬(wàn)次航班中有2.1架航班失事，低于過(guò)去5年的平均事故發(fā)生率。

Accident rates this year “still continue the trend of increasing safety,” Mr. Hayes said. “It is very difficult to get over not only how safe airline flying has become but how much safer it is than even just a decade ago.”

海斯說(shuō)今年的事故發(fā)生率“安全系數(shù)仍保持上升趨勢(shì)”。他說(shuō)：“要想同時(shí)了解‘目前飛行安全系數(shù)有多高’和‘安全系數(shù)僅與十年前相比就上升了多少’，這并不容易。”

The aircraft insurance industry has been hit hard this year, exacerbated by a series of attacks on airports, potentially leading to a rise in premiums. Attacks on airports in Tripoli, Kabul and Karachi have ratcheted up worry about the risk to aircraft sitting in war-torn areas.

航空保險(xiǎn)行業(yè)今年則遭受重創(chuàng)。多起機(jī)場(chǎng)襲擊事件又使其雪上加霜。保險(xiǎn)費(fèi)也因此水漲船高。的黎波里、喀布爾、卡拉奇的機(jī)場(chǎng)都遭到了武裝分子的襲擊，這進(jìn)一步加深了人們對(duì)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)多發(fā)地航空飛行安全的擔(dān)心。

Despite the overall improvement in aviation safety, experts are under pressure to reduce the number of aviation accidents as more people fly. Safety experts in the U.S. and Europe are establishing vast databases of flights to determine how flying can be made safer.

雖然航空安全整體上進(jìn)步明顯，但隨著越來(lái)越多的人選擇飛行出行，專家們?cè)跍p少航空事故方面倍感壓力。美國(guó)和歐洲的安全專家正在著手建立覆蓋面廣闊的飛行數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)，希望以此獲得安全系數(shù)更高的飛行方案。

Experts will be looking for lessons from any findings that emerge from the disappearance of the AirAsia jetliner. France’s air accident investigation office, the BEA, on Sunday said it would dispatch two investigators to Jakarta along with two technical experts from Airbus to aid Indonesia’s probe.

專家們將從這起亞航失聯(lián)事件的調(diào)查結(jié)果中尋求一些教訓(xùn)。法國(guó)空中事故調(diào)查辦公室BEA29日表示將派兩名調(diào)查員與來(lái)自空中客車(chē)公司(Airbus)的兩名技術(shù)專家一起前往雅加達(dá)，協(xié)助印尼政府展開(kāi)調(diào)查。

The BEA could help analyze the plane’s so called “black boxes” if they are recovered. Those devices, which store cockpit conversations and system data, generally provide the best information of what went wrong on a flight.

如果飛機(jī)“黑匣子”能夠被找到，BEA能幫助進(jìn)行數(shù)據(jù)分析。黑匣子紀(jì)錄有駕駛員艙尾對(duì)話和系統(tǒng)數(shù)據(jù)，可以很好地說(shuō)明當(dāng)時(shí)飛機(jī)遇到的狀況。

The U.S. National Transportation Safety Board said it would also assist the investigation, if asked. Indonesia has lead responsibility for any probe under international aviation rules.

美國(guó)國(guó)家運(yùn)輸安全委員會(huì)表示如果印尼提出請(qǐng)求，它將協(xié)助調(diào)查。印尼在遵循國(guó)際航空規(guī)則的所有調(diào)查中擔(dān)負(fù)主要責(zé)任。