精辟！傅瑩在外媒發(fā)表的這篇文章，把中美當(dāng)下復(fù)雜問(wèn)題徹底講透了

9月11日，美國(guó)主流媒體彭博社(Bloomberg)刊登了全國(guó)人民代表大會(huì)外事委員會(huì)副主任委員、中國(guó)社科院全球戰(zhàn)略智庫(kù)首席專(zhuān)家傅瑩的署名文章，引起了國(guó)外各界的廣泛關(guān)注。

文章題為《中國(guó)如何應(yīng)對(duì)變化中的美國(guó)?》(How Should China Respond to a Changing U.S.?)，摘編自傅瑩2018年8月28-29日在亞洲協(xié)會(huì)等機(jī)構(gòu)的演講《中美今天的選擇決定未來(lái)兩國(guó)關(guān)系》。

傅瑩在文中對(duì)當(dāng)下中美關(guān)系、美國(guó)對(duì)華態(tài)度發(fā)表了精辟的見(jiàn)解，我們一起來(lái)看看。

1美國(guó)對(duì)中國(guó)的態(tài)度發(fā)生變化

傅瑩在文章中談到，她在最近訪美期間，發(fā)現(xiàn)美國(guó)人對(duì)華態(tài)度變了。

美國(guó)學(xué)者普遍認(rèn)為：

The U.S. was frustrated at not having shaped China in its own image, despite bringing the country into the World Trade Organization and helping to enable its economic takeoff.

在美國(guó)幫助中國(guó)加入世貿(mào)組織、實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)騰飛之后，中國(guó)沒(méi)有接受美國(guó)的政治制度，美方對(duì)此感到失望。

Instead, China had “ripped off” the U.S. by taking advantage of it in trade and business. There was concern at how fast China was climbing up the global economic and technological ladder, and that its military was threatening to “elbow out” the U.S. from Asia.

相反，在雙方經(jīng)貿(mào)交往中，中國(guó)還“占盡美方的便宜”，美方更擔(dān)心中國(guó)在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)和技術(shù)階梯上的快速提升。美方還認(rèn)為在軍事上受到被中國(guó)‘擠出’亞洲的威脅。

2美國(guó)的指責(zé)是否公允

傅瑩認(rèn)為，首先中國(guó)應(yīng)該思考一個(gè)問(wèn)題：美國(guó)的指責(zé)是否公允(the Chinese people first have to ask whether U.S. criticisms are fair)?

傅瑩說(shuō)，美國(guó)在中國(guó)未能實(shí)現(xiàn)自己的政治目標(biāo)，但顯然這不是美國(guó)唯一的“失敗”，更不是最慘痛的。

In fact, given what’s happened to some countries since the “color revolutions” and the “Arab Spring,” the U.S. should be thankful that its efforts haven’t thrown China into political turmoil and economic chaos. The fact that China has maintained social and political stability and followed its own economic path has contributed to global economic growth, especially after the 2008 financial crisis.

在見(jiàn)證了“顏色革命”和“阿拉伯之春”給一些國(guó)家?guī)?lái)的后果之后，美國(guó)應(yīng)該慶幸，中國(guó)沒(méi)有自廢武功地走上錯(cuò)誤的道路，既沒(méi)陷入政治動(dòng)蕩，也沒(méi)出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)混亂，而是保持總體社會(huì)穩(wěn)定，成功走出一條符合自身國(guó)情的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展道路，為全球經(jīng)濟(jì)——特別是2008年金融危機(jī)之后的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)——做出了貢獻(xiàn)。

伊拉克和阿富汗的重建讓美國(guó)耗費(fèi)了大量財(cái)政資源，而中國(guó)的發(fā)展極大地惠及了美國(guó)的繁榮。

3中國(guó)在全球化過(guò)程中的角色

的確，中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)得到了快速發(fā)展。

Taking advantage of the globalization promoted by the U.S. and Europe, hardworking Chinese gained access to global capital, technologies, expertise and markets, all of which facilitated the growth of industry. Hundreds of millions of Chinese came out of poverty, and living standards in the country have risen substantially.

通過(guò)充分利用美歐推動(dòng)的全球化帶來(lái)的機(jī)遇，勤勞的中國(guó)人有效使用了國(guó)際資金、技術(shù)、經(jīng)驗(yàn)和市場(chǎng)，促進(jìn)了工業(yè)化進(jìn)程。數(shù)以億計(jì)的中國(guó)人民擺脫了貧困，人民生活水平取得巨大提升。

但必須記住兩點(diǎn)：

? First, Chinese workers paid a steep cost for these developments, just as American workers did.

第一，與他們的美國(guó)同行一樣，中國(guó)工人為這些發(fā)展付出了巨大的代價(jià)。

After entering the World Trade Organization, Chinese enterprises were suddenly thrown into direct competition with global peers. Many of them didn’t survive, leading to huge layoffs all over the country.

例如，入世之后，國(guó)內(nèi)企業(yè)突然直接面對(duì)國(guó)際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，多數(shù)產(chǎn)業(yè)陷入困難，有的甚至難以為繼，大量工人下崗。

? Second, China’s gains have benefited the U.S. as well.

第二，中國(guó)的發(fā)展同樣惠及美國(guó)。

According to Oxford Economics, U.S.-China trade helps each American family save $850 every year. Between 2001 and 2016, U.S. commodities exports to China expanded five times, much higher than the 90 percent average increase.

牛津研究院估計(jì)，從中國(guó)進(jìn)口的低價(jià)商品幫助普通美國(guó)家庭平均每年節(jié)省850美元。從2001年到2016年，美國(guó)貨物貿(mào)易對(duì)華出口增長(zhǎng)500%，遠(yuǎn)高于同期對(duì)全球出口90%的增幅。

The advent of the “internet of things” and rapid growth in the number of China’s middle- and upper-class consumers will offer even more opportunities for U.S. companies.

萬(wàn)物聯(lián)網(wǎng)時(shí)代的到來(lái)和中國(guó)快速增長(zhǎng)的中高收入消費(fèi)者群體的出現(xiàn)，將為美國(guó)公司提供更多機(jī)會(huì)。

所以說(shuō)，中國(guó)已成為世界經(jīng)濟(jì)不可分割的組成部分。

China is not only an integral part of the global economy, but also an indispensable source of growth.

中國(guó)已成為世界經(jīng)濟(jì)不可分割的組成部分，更是世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)不可或缺的重要?jiǎng)恿?lái)源之一。

Any attempt to “decouple” it from the U.S. or the global economy will hurt all countries, including the U.S.

任何“脫鉤”的嘗試都必然給世界各國(guó)帶來(lái)嚴(yán)重的損傷，包括對(duì)美國(guó)。

4 中國(guó)應(yīng)如何回應(yīng)?

傅瑩認(rèn)為，面對(duì)美國(guó)的強(qiáng)硬但混亂的聲音，我們需要保持淡定，重要的是聚焦自身發(fā)展，解決好自己的問(wèn)題。

The Chinese have to stay cool-headed in the face of tough but confusing messages from the U.S. We must stay focused on China’s development, and overcome our own difficulties.

接下來(lái)，傅瑩解釋了中國(guó)為什么沒(méi)有對(duì)美采取更加對(duì)抗的態(tài)度。

China is not adopting a more confrontational stance toward the U.S. Its current attitude is part of its overall foreign policy, which is aimed at ensuring a sound environment that facilitates effective cooperation with the outside world to serve China’s development goals.

中國(guó)沒(méi)有對(duì)美采取更加對(duì)抗的態(tài)度。因?yàn)?，中?guó)對(duì)美政策是整體外交政策的組成部分，而中國(guó)外交政策的目標(biāo)是維護(hù)一個(gè)和平的外部環(huán)境和合作的國(guó)際關(guān)系，以服務(wù)于國(guó)家的發(fā)展。

For its purposes, there’s every reason for China to maintain an attitude of “constructive cooperation” with the U.S.

因此，中國(guó)有理由繼續(xù)堅(jiān)持“建設(shè)性合作”的政策。

5 中國(guó)如何應(yīng)對(duì)中美貿(mào)易摩擦

傅瑩坦言，中美關(guān)系的變局對(duì)中國(guó)也是又一次倒逼改革的機(jī)會(huì)。

In fact, changes in U.S.-China relations may help to push China’s own desired reforms.

美方工商界提出來(lái)的市場(chǎng)準(zhǔn)入等問(wèn)題，許多正是中方需要通過(guò)改革著力解決的。

The government is, in fact, opening up: Eight out of the 11 market-opening measures announced by President Xi Jinping in April have been put in place, covering banking, securities, insurance, credit rating, credit investigation and payment, and so on.

事實(shí)上，中國(guó)政府正在進(jìn)一步推進(jìn)開(kāi)放：國(guó)家主席習(xí)近平今年四月宣布的11項(xiàng)開(kāi)發(fā)市場(chǎng)的具體承諾，迄已落實(shí)8項(xiàng)，涉及銀行、證券、保險(xiǎn)、評(píng)級(jí)、征信、支付等。

The government is also working harder to improve the business environment and strengthen intellectual property protections for both Chinese and foreign enterprises.

政府也在下大力氣改善營(yíng)商環(huán)境，加強(qiáng)對(duì)中外企業(yè)知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)的保護(hù)。

Chinese reformers can turn outside pressure to their advantage, using it to bust through internal resistance to necessary changes.

中國(guó)的改革者可以將外部壓力轉(zhuǎn)化為動(dòng)力，打破阻力、實(shí)現(xiàn)必要的改革成效。

6中方絕不會(huì)屈服于關(guān)稅霸凌

傅瑩說(shuō)，但有一點(diǎn)必須清楚：中方絕不會(huì)屈服于關(guān)稅霸凌(make no mistake: The Chinese people will stand firm against U.S. bullying over trade)。

There is talk about China’s economy “sliding down” as a result of the trade war. Some expect China to succumb soon. I can tell you that this is wishful thinking.

有些言論聲稱(chēng)貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)使中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)“滑坡”，還有人認(rèn)為可以期待中國(guó)屈服了。這只是一廂情愿。

傅瑩提到，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)正在去杠桿期間，本身就存在較多痛點(diǎn)，處于咬緊牙關(guān)砥礪前行的階段，這也是為了維持未來(lái)的健康發(fā)展不得不做的。

It’s worth remembering that China adopted a stimulus program to help overcome the global recession triggered by the 2008 financial tsunami in the U.S. And it’s worth noting that the trade war may slow the necessary process of deleveraging.

需要提的一句是，2008年金融危機(jī)以來(lái)，中國(guó)正是為了參與解救美國(guó)所引發(fā)的金融風(fēng)暴，才采取了較大規(guī)模的經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激政策。貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)或許會(huì)減緩必要的去杠桿進(jìn)程。

7抱怨和傷害對(duì)方解決不了問(wèn)題

傅瑩在文章結(jié)尾處表示，抱怨和傷害對(duì)方解決不了問(wèn)題，只會(huì)讓情況更糟(finger-pointing and hurting each other won’t solve any problems)。

因此，中國(guó)應(yīng)繼續(xù)與美方溝通。

Many in China believe that the root causes of U.S. troubles lie within — and therefore need to be solved by Americans themselves. We can see that the U.S. system requires a major overhaul to overcome deep sociopolitical divisions and economic disparities.

在許多中國(guó)人看來(lái)，美國(guó)的麻煩是美國(guó)自己的問(wèn)題，需要美國(guó)人自己解決。我們可以看到，美國(guó)社會(huì)在分裂和轉(zhuǎn)型壓力之下面臨嚴(yán)峻挑戰(zhàn)，需要全面調(diào)整。

But that doesn’t relieve China of the responsibility to engage in dialogue, to find out where the two sides can and can’t agree, and to seek solutions or at least ways to manage persistent disputes.

但同時(shí)，中方有責(zé)任堅(jiān)持對(duì)話，逐步澄清雙方的一致點(diǎn)和分歧點(diǎn)，以拆解矛盾和解決問(wèn)題、抑或管理難題的方式，渡過(guò)中美關(guān)系的險(xiǎn)灘激流。

最后，傅瑩引用了一個(gè)諺語(yǔ)，說(shuō)明中國(guó)仍然會(huì)堅(jiān)持主張，繼續(xù)保持對(duì)話合作。

Such an approach won’t appeal to those who seek confrontation now. But, to borrow a saying, if some folks want to chase butterflies, why should the rest of us go dancing along with them?

當(dāng)然，那些一心尋求對(duì)抗的人或許不會(huì)對(duì)這個(gè)途徑感興趣。但是——讓我借用一個(gè)諺語(yǔ)——如果有些人想追逐蝴蝶，其他人為什么要隨之起舞呢?

看完傅瑩的文章，你是不是對(duì)中國(guó)對(duì)待中美貿(mào)易摩擦的態(tài)度以及對(duì)中美關(guān)系未來(lái)走勢(shì)有了更清晰的認(rèn)識(shí)了呢?