哥本哈根氣候談判沖刺

談判者和部長(zhǎng)們昨日未能在哥本哈根氣候變化會(huì)議上實(shí)現(xiàn)關(guān)鍵目標(biāo)，即達(dá)成溫室氣體排放協(xié)定，讓國(guó)家和政府首腦能夠簽署。多數(shù)與會(huì)首腦已在昨晚抵達(dá)哥本哈根。

Negotiators and ministers at the Copenhagen climate change talks failed in their key aim yesterday – to have a deal on greenhouse gas emissions ready for their heads of state and government to sign, as the majority arrived last night.

英國(guó)能源和氣候變化大臣埃德·米利班德(Ed Miliband)表示，能否達(dá)成首份所有國(guó)家都同意的歷史性氣候變化協(xié)定，還“未見(jiàn)分曉”。

The chances of a historic agreement on climate change – the first that would be agreed among all countries – remained “in the balance”, said Ed Miliband, the UK's climate secretary.

今天標(biāo)志著一場(chǎng)已持續(xù)近20年的馬拉松進(jìn)入最后沖刺階段。有很多次，包括最終帶來(lái)京都議定書(shū)的1997年日本會(huì)議，各國(guó)看上去已接近達(dá)成一致，卻在最后一刻受挫。在京都那次，正是因?yàn)槊绹?guó)未能批準(zhǔn)，才導(dǎo)致沒(méi)有全球承諾。

Today marks the final sprint of a marathon that has carried on for nearly two decades. Many times, such as at the 1997 conference in Japan that produced the Kyoto protocol, countries have looked close to agreeing, only to be thwarted at the last minute. In the case of Kyoto, it was the US's failure to ratify that ensured there would be no global commitment.

在會(huì)議僅剩下最后24小時(shí)多一點(diǎn)之際，一些關(guān)鍵元素已經(jīng)到位。但在協(xié)定可以簽署之前，各方必須對(duì)所有內(nèi)容達(dá)成一致。各國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人還要進(jìn)行大量艱巨談判。

With little over 24 hours to go, some of the key elements have fallen into place. But everything has to be agreed before a deal can be signed. Leaders still have much tough negotiating to do.

正如過(guò)去11天期間的爭(zhēng)吵所充分顯示的，還有很多事可能破壞協(xié)議的達(dá)成。在這些爭(zhēng)吵中，發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家往往與發(fā)展中國(guó)家針?shù)h相對(duì)。中國(guó)與美國(guó)之間發(fā)生的大國(guó)沖突，位于這些分歧的中心。但較小的發(fā)展中國(guó)家也擺出強(qiáng)硬姿態(tài)，威脅要拒絕簽約，盡管即便沒(méi)有它們加入，大國(guó)也可能會(huì)試圖達(dá)成協(xié)定。

As has been made starkly clear by the squabbling of the last 11 days, often pitching developed nations against their developing counterparts, many things could still derail a deal. At the heart of the divisions lies the great power clash between China and the US. But small developing countries are also throwing their weight around and threatening to refuse to sign up, although big powers might try to proceed without them.

美國(guó)昨日增強(qiáng)了達(dá)成協(xié)定的希望，終于公開(kāi)表示，愿意參與向發(fā)展中國(guó)家提供1000億美元的長(zhǎng)期資助，幫助它們應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化的影響。

The US did boost the prospects of a deal yesterday by finally agreeing in public to contribute to a long-term offer of 0bn financial assistance to developing countries to help them cope with the effects of climate change.

但與其它發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家一樣，華盛頓方面尚未表明，美國(guó)將為達(dá)到這一資助目標(biāo)作出多少貢獻(xiàn)。

But Washington, in common with other developed nations, has not yet said how much it would contribute towards this goal.

日本也承諾在未來(lái)三年內(nèi)拿出150億美元，為發(fā)展中國(guó)家提供“快速啟動(dòng)”資金，使發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家接近了窮國(guó)要求的每年100億美元資助的水平。

Japan also promised bn over the next three years in “fast-start” financing to developing countries, which brings developed countries close to the bn a year poor countries are demanding.

關(guān)鍵的未決問(wèn)題之一是，中國(guó)是否會(huì)同意讓其減緩排放情況在國(guó)際層面得到監(jiān)測(cè)。

A critical outstanding issue is whether China will agree to have its emissions curbs monitored at an international level.

“如果連追求透明度的承諾都沒(méi)有，那對(duì)我們來(lái)說(shuō)就有點(diǎn)像一個(gè)阻礙達(dá)成協(xié)議的因素了，”美國(guó)國(guó)務(wù)卿希拉里·克林頓(Hillary Clinton)表示。

“If there is not even a commitment to pursue transparency, that's kind of a dealbreaker for us,” Hillary Clinton, US secretary of state, said.

中國(guó)表示，它致力于實(shí)現(xiàn)透明度，但未提供細(xì)節(jié)。歐盟各國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人昨晚開(kāi)會(huì)，討論歐盟是否應(yīng)當(dāng)把自己的減排目標(biāo)從到2020年減排20%，提高至討論范圍的高端，即減排30%。這將是任何協(xié)定的關(guān)鍵元素之一。

China said it was committed to transparency but did not give details. Leaders from the European Union met last night to talk over whether the bloc should raise its offer of cutting emissions by 20 per cent by 2020 to the higher end of its discussed range, of 30 per cent. This will be a key element of any deal.

各方醞釀的潛在折衷方案之一，是提出減排25%。

One potential compromise being mooted is a move to a 25 per cent reduction.

意大利環(huán)境部長(zhǎng)斯特凡尼亞·普雷斯蒂賈科莫(Stefania Prestigiacomo)提出了談判可能持續(xù)到明年的可能性。

Stefania Prestigiacomo, Italy's environment minister, raised the prospect that the negotiations could continue into next year.

一名歐盟官員表示，中國(guó)也必須提高自己的目標(biāo)，從到2020年將單位國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)排放量削減40%至45%，提高到削減50%以上。

An EU official said China would also have to increase its offer, of reducing its emissions per unit of gross domestic product by 40 to 45 per cent by 2020, to a reduction of more than 50 per cent.

另一個(gè)棘手的地方是京都議定書(shū)，該條約曾被許多簽約發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家視為氣候政策的基石，現(xiàn)在卻成了套在談判脖子上的枷鎖。

Another sticking point is the Kyoto protocol, which has turned from being regarded as a cornerstone of climate policy by many developed country signatories into being a millstone round the neck of the talks.

由于美國(guó)未批準(zhǔn)該條約，因此就形成了談判必須沿著兩條軌道推進(jìn)的麻煩局面：一條軌道是將京都議定書(shū)延續(xù)至2012年以后（該條約的主要條款將在那一年過(guò)后失效），而另一條軌道是商定一個(gè)納入美國(guó)的新框架。

Since the US has failed to ratify the treaty, creating an unwieldy situation where negotiations have had to proceed along two tracks: one to extend the Kyoto protocol beyond 2012, when the main provisions of the pact expire, and another to agree a new framework that would include the US.

發(fā)展中國(guó)家支持京都議定書(shū)，該條約對(duì)發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家規(guī)定了理論上具有約束力的承諾，但對(duì)發(fā)展中國(guó)家沒(méi)有約束，包括中國(guó)這個(gè)全球最大排放國(guó)。發(fā)展中國(guó)家經(jīng)常表示擔(dān)心，延續(xù)京都議定書(shū)的軌道正被放棄，由包括美國(guó)的新過(guò)程取而代之。新過(guò)程稱(chēng)為“長(zhǎng)期合作行動(dòng)”(Long-term Co-operative Actions)。

Developing countries support the Kyoto protocol, which imposes supposedly binding commitments on developed countries but not on developing ones, including China, the world's biggest emitter. They have often raised fears that the Kyoto track of the process was being abandoned, to be replaced by the newer process, known as Long-term Co-operative Actions, which includes the US.

氣候談判對(duì)法律程序的專(zhuān)注，令發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家感到郁悶。日本首相鳩山由紀(jì)夫(Yukio Hatoyama)對(duì)英國(guó)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》表示，更重要的是擬定一份新協(xié)議，而該協(xié)議與京都議定書(shū)的不同之處在于，它將納入全球所有排放大國(guó)。

The focus on the legal formalities of the talks has exasperated developed countries. Yukio Hatoyama, prime minister of Japan, told the Financial Times it was more important to set out a new agreement that, unlike the Kyoto treaty, would include all of the world's big emitters.

如果各國(guó)在哥本哈根簽署一份政治宣言，那將離達(dá)到目標(biāo)還有很長(zhǎng)一段路。明年，各國(guó)將必須召開(kāi)多次會(huì)議，以便擬定一份有法律約束力的條約，納入在哥本哈根同意的任何承諾。這個(gè)過(guò)程也將問(wèn)題重重。“有些人認(rèn)為，只要拿來(lái)（任何哥本哈根宣言），把它潤(rùn)色一下，就能得到一份具有法律約束力的條約。實(shí)際情況并非如此，”一名高級(jí)官員對(duì)英國(guó)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》表示。

If a political declaration is signed at Copenhagen, that is far from the end of the story. Next year, countries will have to meet again many times in order to draft a legally binding treaty containing any commitments agreed here. That process, too, will be fraught. “Some people think that you can just take [any Copenhagen declaration], polish it and turn it into a legally binding treaty. That is not the case,” one senior official told the FT.